baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well this has been an interesting event to watch develop. Guidance had been suggestive of this for a while now, but there certainly has been a late trend towards something much more interesting with a rapidly developing PV induced cyclone across the Front Range ejecting into the High Plains. Immediate cyclogenesis as this PV ejects the Rockies suggests strong vertical PV stretching. Strong height falls might stall this system briefly. GOing to be an interesting event across western NE and portions of the Front Range as the front establishes itself and N flow sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 The RGEM is certainly the most agressive with the lead anomaly and favors rapid cyclogenesis on the north end of that PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 NW flow across the Front Range won't do too hot for the immediate mtn/plains locations, but areas E will be interesting. I am not a local expert on the favored areas in NW flow, but portions of the eastern Denver Metro might get interesting briefly tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Inverted troughs love ND. Going to be interesting into GFK as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 RGEM/GFS could be a nice event for w MN as well if it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 RGEM/GFS could be a nice event for w MN as well if it stays all snow. I was looking near your area...looks like you stay on the warm side of the inverted trof. I am thinking mostly rain possibly mixing later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Boulder just pulled the trigger and issued a WWA and a blizzard watch for portions of the Front Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was looking near your area...looks like you stay non the warm side of the inverted trof. I am thinking mostly rain possibly mixing later. oh well, we need the moisture up here so take whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 237 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012 MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-201000- /O.NEW.KABR.WW.Y.0002.120220T1200Z-120221T0000Z/ TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK- CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...ABERDEEN... BRITTON...SISSETON...WEBSTER...REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN... MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE 237 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. * TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. * SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNSET MONDAY. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW INITIALLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY TO 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Boulder just pulled the trigger and issued a WWA and a blizzard watch for portions of the Front Range. wth??? you've got to be kidding me... can i tell you how sick and tired i am of these stupid ULL this winter in the west/southwest... i'm sorry, i'm whining now...just once, i was hoping for a break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 305 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012 MNZ001>003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ030-038- 039-049-052-053-211200- /O.NEW.KFGF.WW.Y.0005.120220T1200Z-120221T1200Z/ WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL- NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER- SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER- EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT- TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS... HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE... THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI... MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES... WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS... WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON... GWINNER...WAHPETON 305 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. * SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW BAND WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO CROOKSTON TO ROSEAU. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM COOPERSTON TO GRAND FORKS TO HALLOCK AND VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION NORTH AND WEST OF THAT LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 18z RGEM came in stronger at 24hrs than the 12z 30hr...really gets things going over s SD & e NE panhandle. Interesting to see if it's even close to the outcome of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 18z RGEM came in stronger at 24hrs than the 12z 30hr...really gets things going over s SD & e NE panhandle. Interesting to see if it's even close to the outcome of the event. I just saw that online. Matches up well with what we and other offices are thinking. These deep PV's have a tendency to deepen fast and stall as they eject the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can you post 500 graphics/vort Prins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can you post 500 graphics/vort Prins? 12z 30hr & 18z 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 interesting, the East Coasters always rely on the GFS, the Euro and sometimes the NAM...do other models do better in different parts of the country? for instance, you posted the RGEM, but that doesn't seem to ever be the model of choice for the East Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 12z 30hr & 18z 24hr Perfect, thanks. The ejecting wave certainly looks beefier...tonites 0Z guidance should prove useful to see if such a trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 interesting, the East Coasters always rely on the GFS, the Euro and sometimes the NAM...do other models do better in different parts of the country? for instance, you posted the RGEM, but that doesn't seem to ever be the model of choice for the East Coast... RGEM has it's moments like any other model, sometimes it can catch a change/trend before the GFS, especially inside 30hrs. Seems alot of the east coasters worship the EURO and so there is no other model and the EURO probably does well out there...Personally i think the GFS has done well compared to the EURO this winter up here. Normally the CMC/RGEM would be below the EURO/GFS but this winter i think any model has a shot at verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 interesting, the East Coasters always rely on the GFS, the Euro and sometimes the NAM...do other models do better in different parts of the country? for instance, you posted the RGEM, but that doesn't seem to ever be the model of choice for the East Coast... A good forecaster will know what guidance is useful under what circumstances. RGEM is a very good regional model overall though. It has a tendency to be an "amped" solution, but it is better than the NAM IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Boulder just pulled the trigger and issued a WWA and a blizzard watch for portions of the Front Range. A small portion of Colorado has this blizzard warning: * SNOW...1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH UP TO AN INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE. I think we will see a few flakes to maybe an inch. With a lot of northwest flow, areas around here don't see much snow, but areas of banded snow can give 1-3". Looks like it will be breezy. February 28-March 6 looks cold http://policlimate.c...om_conus_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm gonna guess 3.4" for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1115 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1113 AM SNOW 30 S VALENTINE 42.44N 100.55W 02/20/2012 E4.0 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC 1112 AM SNOW MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W 02/20/2012 E3.0 INCH HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT 1018 AM SNOW 3 N GORDON 42.85N 102.20W 02/20/2012 M3.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1115 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1113 AM SNOW 30 S VALENTINE 42.44N 100.55W 02/20/2012 E4.0 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC 1112 AM SNOW MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W 02/20/2012 E3.0 INCH HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT 1018 AM SNOW 3 N GORDON 42.85N 102.20W 02/20/2012 M3.0 INCH SHERIDAN NE CO-OP OBSERVER Front just plowed through here and we turned NNW gusting to near 40. That 850 frontal band will weaken as it translates eastward. We will be lucky to get 0.5 inches. Attention now turns to ND and GFK. I think cmichweathers call is about right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 I-70 is now closed from Goodland westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 snowing here now, MPX saying 1-2" through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Might as well enjoy the brief winter wonderland here. It is about 2 miles and snowing with gusty winds blowing it nearly horizontal. Here is a shot from GFK at the UND At Sci building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 snowing here now, MPX saying 1-2" through tonight. Is it still snowing or it is a mix? Looks marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 at times it's heavy snow then it's a mix, nothing sticking really as the temp is at 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Finally got temps down to 32 and snow is now sticking to everything combination of cooling and higher snowfall rates helped overcome the melting. We might have lost a 1/2-1" because of the warm boundary layer temps but great flake size right now and heavy rates are making up for it. I think we see 4.0" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Finally got temps down to 32 and snow is now sticking to everything combination of cooling and higher snowfall rates helped overcome the melting. We might have lost a 1/2-1" because of the warm boundary layer temps but great flake size right now and heavy rates are making up for it. I think we see 4.0" here. Huge flakes here also, starting to stick now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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