NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I need someone to translate what Tip just wrote. Winter is over. That's what I got out of it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I need someone to translate what Tip just wrote. "...The point of all that rant is really this simple: winter is dead. ..not that it was ever born; but any chance of a late delivery is a ship that set sail, now, too...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It makes sense that the Euro ejected the southern stream out much faster on this run; but the model also has significant continuity breakdown with the intensity of that feature in order to do so. The previous discussion later last night on page 2 was a comparative between the GFS and Euro, outlining their differences and what it could mean to the stream interactions further east over the U.S. That's still the issue, actually... The weaker (now) depiction of the Euro actually causes the fast ejection, because if/when the southern stream S/W(s) are stronger, they would cause/induce the northern stream to interact with them as they scoot by to the south - that imposes a meridional component to the flow overall when that happens, leading to slower overall translation speeds. That said, even so, the balance of power between the persistent SE ridge -vs- native progressivity to the flow would have meant threading the needle as a whopper of an understatement. Can't even thread needles with this Euro solution. The problem here is that the ECM butt banged us over with this continuity shift ... and doing so INSIDE its wheel-house at just 24-36 hours from the time the impulse first comes off the Pacific over land. That's a bit of a frustration for me - the model is unflappable 90% of the time inside of 36 hours and it chooses to f* up now ... ? get bent! Well...I must admit, I was rooting for the Euro solution. Why? Purely for compassion/empathy's sake. I think it may just be (barring some renegade "bowling" season anomaly....), the last gasp of hope to get anything out of this season. But, it is what it is.. The Euro fumbling around with the intensity of what actually gets relayed off the Pac, then assembling a stream interaction accordingly down wind is all a continuity breakdown, and one that crashes its solution toward the GFS... I am not sure why - btw - there is this collective need to bash the GFS? It's done this several times this laughable non-existent cold season, where it was stubborn and the Euro decided at some point to go with it inside of 96 hours - Phil and I discussed this well over a month ago. ...But i digress... The Euro is a big fat ugly azzhole of a douche bag for what it just did. Okay okay. Got that out of my system - HAHAHA. I am loving the extended Euro ( nyuk nyuk )... Why? Because it is a wonderfully concerted painting (finally, a model run that looks an iota like the teleconnector spreads) of what the overnight GEFs -derived teleconnectors argue for. And, when it's cross-guidance model types in agreement from the GFS/ECM, that usually forces hand. It's also nice to see correlations return to the party quite frankly. Early spring - I know a few may not want to hear that... I mentioned this a couple of times in posts last week, that whatever we get, we would need to get by D10 because the overall landscape of what the teleconnectors were pointing toward back then - and has become even more prevalent since - is a complete abandonment of any cold potential (continentally below 50N) heading into March. Not only that, but during a year that has been completely abandoned (seasonal trend) to begin with...? That should pretty much put the final nail in this coffin, inside of which is this corpse of a winter together with a thermo-nuclear resentment bomb, lower it all into the ground, bury it under 6.5' of cement, and detonate said bomb. I don't know what all that means either, but sufficed it is to say, there is nothing about any of the large scale indicators that suggests it will snow before next autumn at this time. Sorry. You're only hope is, if we can pass through 3-4 weeks of favorable indicators and cough up a 0 fur-ball, perhaps we can cash-in when there are no favorable indicators for the same paradoxic shame. I dunno about you, but that pretty f* thin! Anyway, the PNA is steadily declining, landing on -2 SD (or more negative) by D10. The NAO has been in a positive coma all season long and now nurse Rachet is scheduling it for a lobotomy, ...so no help there. The AO has gone positive - not that it mattered; the entire negative event spanning the last month dumped 100% of the resulting middle latitude cold flux into Eurasion. We got ZIPPO from that 3 week span of propagating SSW driven negative AO (and it did turn out to propagate by the way...). Verdict: Bad luck I suppose. I was discussing this with Will the other night; when the AO did tank, the EPO and the NAO acted more like blockers to delivering cold, due to their respective phase states. Meanwhile ( ) the MJO passed through 7-8-1 about as powerful as it has been over recent years worth of monitoring and correlated 0.0 on N/A circulation. How in the hell the atmosphere defied physics in getting that to happen is an utterly intriguing science to me... Actually, now that I think about it, hearkens back to my own point I hammered last autumn about how the MJO's effects seem be trumped if the surrounding medium is out of phase with it ... yet another form of this year's incredible deconstructive wave interference propensity... Doesn't seem to matter what scale we observe, big or small, or what mass field one compares, they are all unilaterally inharmonic. The point of all that rant is really this simple: winter is dead. ..not that it was ever born; but any chance of a late delivery is a ship that set sail, now, too. How extreme the warmth gets may in ironically become the headlines. Heh, part of me almost is inclined to think that the muting of anything extreme as also being a season torture, might somehow attack that, as well. But, creepiness aside ... if these PNA/NAO/AO/ teleconnectors are fully realized, that polar boundary placement up near the Canadian border with a quasi-Bermuda ridge extension that evolves between D6-10 as is depicted in the 00z operational Euro may actually be underdone if anything. -PNA/+NAO couplet with MJO passing into Phase 3 or 4, with 0 help from the AO is a killer in March.. Even with the wave lengths beginning to shrink, that is just too much broadcasted indicators for warmth to overcome. Also, this type of pattern has a big tornado/severe weather risk for the TV and lower OV area. But that is an issue for those American sub-form sectors. .. I'm sure they are all over it already. So now the 12z GFS tries to bring cold waves in ... yeah, I guess that makes sense too All you really need to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 "...The point of all that rant is really this simple: winter is dead. ..not that it was ever born; but any chance of a late delivery is a ship that set sail, now, too...." Nyuk nyuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 He'll be nude just wearing his Red Sox sweatshirt on the ham radio. Visuals, dude. Visuals. What has been seen in my mind cannot be unseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 "...The point of all that rant is really this simple: winter is dead. ..not that it was ever born; but any chance of a late delivery is a ship that set sail, now, too...." Sometimes all is needed are the cliff notes to summarize what is a tragic ending to a story already plagued by horrific elements throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It makes sense that the Euro ejected the southern stream out much faster on this run; but the model also has significant continuity breakdown with the intensity of that feature in order to do so. ....12 paragraphs. How long does it take to write something like that? You do have an amazing ability to put words together though. English major mixed with meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z gfs has it near 70F on Friday for the areas in VA that just got 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 How long does it take to write something like that? You do have an amazing ability to put words together though. English major mixed with meteorology? 20 minutes ... then scanned briefly for egregious typing errors - I don't get them all and it's annoying, but I have other work I need to be doing. If I'm troubleshooting a system and its taking a long while to boot up, I can bang out a coupel 3 paragraphs.. Thanks though. No Engrish major. Hobby in writing... It's something I enjoy and others have been encouraging me to develop it further for years. Currently having a novel proof read - has nothing to do with weather though. I may try a creative work in weather as a next project. Not sure though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Someone needs to post the Tip toasterbath pic with the bloviated quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 20 minutes ... then scanned briefly for egregious typing errors - I don't get them all and it's annoying, but I have other work I need to be doing. If I'm troubleshooting a system and its taking a long while to boot up, I can bang out a coupel 3 paragraphs.. Thanks though. No Engrish major. Hobby in writing... It's something I enjoy and others have been encouraging me to develop it further for years. Currently having a novel proof read - has nothing to do with weather though. I may try a creative work in weather as a next project. Not sure though - Hopefully not a text on spelling...lol I hope to read your novel someday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Low 976mb over Upstate NY on the euro for fri-sat......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Low 976mb over Upstate NY on the euro for fri-sat......... 964 mb up the St Lawrence......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe it will cut more west? Maybe monkeys will fly out of it's azz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe it will cut more west? Maybe monkeys will fly out of it's azz... Its a monster, Michigan would get destroyed on that run, If only....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 964 mb up the St Lawrence......... Driving to Montreal Friday...lol. Are they on the cold side of the system? Down here we can maybe get some of the frozen crud washed away...I can hardly walk across the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe we'll pull a Groundhog's Day 2009 ... Euro and GFS had a monster of a storm cutting to our west ... shifted east and became a significant snowstorm threat ... and kept shifting east until it was pretty much lost aside from some weak inverted trough snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 There was a storm last year that was supposed to cut way west and ended up being a snowstorm for CNE/NNE and snow to rain back to snow for elevated areas in SNE....but of course that was last year and as Ray would say it had a completely different personality as a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Driving to Montreal Friday...lol. Are they on the cold side of the system? Down here we can maybe get some of the frozen crud washed away...I can hardly walk across the lawn. No, But they would get backsided once the low pulled away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe it will come SE in the last 36 hours.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe it will come SE in the last 36 hours.......... Nope, only when its supposed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 60-80 mph gusts on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 60-80 mph gusts on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Big time wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What a monster storm. It is, Wish it was snow,It probably needs its own thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Widespread power outages. Probably right behind Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully most of us lose power for 3-7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Someone stands to get some good LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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