HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro should be interesting to watch this week Wish it ran 4x per day instead of twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I wish the HRRR ran out to 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hey, guess what.....do I hear futility inside of futility lol Feb 1984 with 1" is my worst Feb on record....I'm beating it by.......(checks sig)....1". Ray, I got more snow on Ot 27 than Dec and Feb (so far) combinedNot talking about the big October 20", but the smaller event So 2 events in Oct bigger than Dec & Feb combined unreal I wonder if my backyard (only been here since 1998) has had less than 1" in Feb before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Ray, I got more snow on Ot 27 than Dec and Feb (so far) combined Not talking about the big October 20", but the smaller event So 2 events in Oct bigger than Dec & Feb combined unreal I wonder if my backyard (only been here since 1998) has had less than 1" in Feb before Feb 1937 gave ORH a trace, so you probably would have had under an inch that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Feb 1937 gave ORH a trace, so you probably would have had under an inch that year. That year was epically bad looking at it. Even worse than this year so far...ORH had 12.6" of snow for the season going into March that year. They got 12" after March 1st though top finish at 24.6"....good for 2nd worst all time. DJF combined for 8.7" of snow as November saw 3.9" fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I put his in the wrong thread: The difference between the operational Euro and GFS runs is that the Euro plots more potency into the SW as a quasi-closed mid and u/a feature... The GFS by comparison is much more paltry/weak with this entity. That difference and how it induces stream interaction farther east is important. The strong profile of the ECM requires more is conserved as this feature gets booted out of the SW and re-enters the southern component of the westerlies some 48 hours from now. Currently the WV loop shows a significant short wave off the B.C. Coast by some 300km. This is the feature the ECM is tucking into southern Cali and through the upper Baja into Old Mexico as a near outside slider. It appears this implies the ECM has a better initialization of this. This is a very complex scenario. The GFS' solution is entirely reasonable within its self - but may not be reasonable to begin with if indeed it is missing some of the potency of that NE Pac impulse. Given to the superior 4-D variable system of the Euro and considering data sparseness in that region, combined with satellite observations, those certainly nod in favor of making that conclusion. On the other hand, the Euro run almost looks too conserved as the southern stream system comes east. This is because well prior to its ejecting the impulse out of the SW heights and balanced mid level geopotential wind velocities are both too high over the lower TV/FL N Gulf, where the SE ridge interfaces with the westerlies. This southeast/Bahamian ridge is not going anywhere as this southern stream system enters the resulting compression zone between it and the N stream amplitude entering the western GL and N MV regions. That compression zone is howling winds into the 75kt range; given to the fact that the southern stream wind max isn't much stronger than that, the impulse is thus being damped. The Euro would need to have a substantively stronger wind max - which it may succeed in modeling, sure. We'll have to see what ultimately gets relayed off the Pacific 24...36 hours from now. If the GFS does turn out too weak, it may not mean a hill -a beans of difference to the end result, if that SE ridge meat grinds that southern stream out of existence - indeed making the Euro too conserved. I have over the years developed a general rule of thumb that tends to work out much of the time. If prior to the arrival of S/W, when heights are above 580dm over MIA, and the balanced wind is above 35 kts, the flow over the lower TV will be resistant to height falls. The reason has to do differentiability of wind fields where the S/W wind max ...really disappears for lack of better word in the blasting maelstrom already in place. No differentiation, no WAA/CAA coupling, no and/or weak storm. There has been a lot of question over the last 24 hours as to why there has been a startling lack of events in general, in the means...pretty much the whole winter save for a couple of frets and starts here and there. This, here, is an opportunity to describe why that is I believe, and it has to do with deconstructive wave interference. More over, this kind of loud inharmonicity has been the heavily favored flow type so far end to end this cold season. It's really remarkable how long that has persisted, too, when considering the standard model times most in situ pattern orientations for 45 days; this has certainly taken liberties in residence time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Could be a good omen. It snowed a lot in March 1984. At least where I lived in ENY. Hey, guess what.....do I hear futility inside of futility lol Feb 1984 with 1" is my worst Feb on record....I'm beating it by.......(checks sig)....1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Could be a good omen. It snowed a lot in March 1984. At least where I lived in ENY. It was a big snow month in SNE as well...esp the interior, but even the coast did pretty good. BOS had 19" that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS has a 976 bomb going through Lake Ontario....it does try to give a little snow event preceding that one though on Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Nice post tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS has a 976 bomb going through Lake Ontario....it does try to give a little snow event preceding that one though on Wed night. Yeah, a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Gotta hate that southern energy riding up with clouds and rain during the day Friday. We need that out of the way to maximize daytime heating, for some good thunderstorms in the evening </:weenie:> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Tip, really excellent post. It's very true that this has been the rule so far this winter, which is quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully the gfs isn't right for PF's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is the same GFS that phased today's event for three of four runs and had it tracking to Cape Cod. Slight 600 mile error there. I am a bit dubious of any ideal phasing solution in this pattern ...I have to assume it's a heck of a phase to take a 976 through Lake Ontario. Hopefully the gfs isn't right for PF's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is the same GFS that phased today's event for three of four runs and had it tracking to Cape Cod. Slight 600 mile error there. I am a bit dubious of any ideal phasing solution in this pattern ...I have to assume it's a heck of a phase to take a 976 through Lake Ontario. Yeah but the EC ens agree to an extent unlike this last storm. EC OP had a nice storm for CNE/NNE. Not sure when anything else had and not sure it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I do find it incredible that channel 4 is already going for 61 at BOS on Friday...even the torching gfs looks like mid/upper 50s to me. Seems like quite the bold call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is the same GFS that phased today's event for three of four runs and had it tracking to Cape Cod. Slight 600 mile error there. I am a bit dubious of any ideal phasing solution in this pattern ...I have to assume it's a heck of a phase to take a 976 through Lake Ontario. It isn't though - that low result is purely N stream alone. Again in this run, the GFS opts for a weaker southern stream - it is "slightly" stronger than prior runs, and we do see "slightly" more cyclonic curvature to the isobaric layout as it gains latitude. The NAM looks a little more like the Euro at 72 hours with that SW feature - ultimately destined to be the southern stream contributor... Whatever happens, it will be progressive in nature... speeding right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Tip, really excellent post. It's very true that this has been the rule so far this winter, which is quite interesting. mm, so much so that the epiphany may be that this has been more La Nina like despite the lack of "La Nina" look to the flow... The idea stems from the notion that successful phasing really is initiated in the southern stream; well, the southern stream has been utterly abandoned thus far. There has been more southern stream activation as of very recently... But, weak El Ninos are better for phasing. Point being, La Nina's are not really phasing patterns; they are supposed to be northern stream dominant, where impulses in that circulation activate events on their own. It may be more that the polarward streams are stronger as expected, but simply orienting unusually for whatever reason - probably related to the huge positive bias in the AO, and then when it finally turned negative, it biased almost 100% in Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Big changes on the Euro....southern stream ejects much faster and the storm happens much earlier...potent storm going through BUF. Would have decent wind potential in E MA I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Could be a good omen. It snowed a lot in March 1984. At least where I lived in ENY. March 29 - 30th, 1984. 17.6" from that storm alone at KORH. SLP was 969MB SE KACK. It made a textbook "Meteorology Today" for one of my first basic MET classes Freshman year in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Don't worry, it'll find a way to rain up here too. Well that didn't take long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Looking at HPC it seems as if we move into a cutter pattern now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Major major torch on the Euro March 1 and on..If verified would be 60's at least for much of New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Major major torch on the Euro March 1 and on..If verified would be 60's at least for much of New Eng Where is the 10 days of cold Jb just promised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Looking at HPC it seems as if we move into a cutter pattern now. Lol Also love the dry cold that comes in after each cutter. Beautiful looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Ah well, wind events are so much more exciting than a snowstorm At least it will rain a few times ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Where is the 10 days of cold Jb just promised In Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It looks like we could be on the line in terms of a battle ground late Feb and early March, especially NNE. Pretty cold in Canada and this tries to push south, as the se ridge tries to move north. Afterwards, it looks like we warm as we head past first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 A bit late, but Tim Kelly echoes Sam and Will's thoughts a bit - thunder and wind? The Friday low goes back to the track of earlier this winter, up through New York. That means we get the south wind, warmer air and a rain snow line possibly as far north as the Canadian Boarder. temperatures may be near 60 in southern New England Friday with rain and thunder. Though the European weather model keeps the door ope for a slightly more eastern track, that model also deepens the low to 964 millibars, lower Barometric Pressure than Hurricane Bob. If that verifies, then we may have some colder air, enough for snow in Vermont, but we also get 60-80 mph gusts Friday Night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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