bluewave Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooling climate Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://www.tellusa.n...view/11595/html We showed that Arctic heating anomalies due to low sea ice concentrations in late summer (August/September) trigger changes in baroclinic systems in autumn because of an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that influences the structure of large-scale planetary waves in the following winter. The baroclinic structure of the direct response in autumn is linked to different patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere, which are related to the decrease in sea ice concentration. Decreased static stability and changed meridional temperature gradients induce an earlier onset of baroclinicity north of 75° N with greater amplitude. That is one view and over time I suppose there will be several more but I am much more inclined to think they are barking up the wrong tree. Large Ozone deficit last spring,plus positive QBO and increased solar activity are more likely the causes than some AGW reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That is one view and over time I suppose there will be several more but I am much more inclined to think they are barking up the wrong tree. Large Ozone deficit last spring,plus positive QBO and increased solar activity are more likely the causes than some AGW reasoning. Would this apply to 2007 and other years as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is also a perpetual positive feedback for more sea ice loss. The Heat in the arctic slows down the ice regeneration in winter. The cold in the mid latittudes gets overwhelmed naturally by Solar before it would matter in anyway. The artic was 7C above normal in January. Most of that was on the Atlantic side where anomalies upwards of 18C existed with wide spread 10C+ That heat has continued and gotten stronger in more places in February. Hopefully at somepoint the system can try to balance out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thanks for posting the link to this interesting and informative paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Like the other research mentions, we could use this information for better winter forecasts. A new study led by the Georgia Institute of Technology provides further evidence of a relationship between melting ice in the Arctic regions and widespread cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. The study’s findings could be used to improve seasonal forecasting of snow and temperature anomalies across northern continents. http://www.gatech.ed...html?nid=112691 I just want to add my thanks to Don's. That is an interesting research paper and I look forward to seeing if their conclusions hold up. I also found it interesting that one of the paper's authors is Dr Judith Curry, a well-known 'luke-warmer' and professor at Georgia Tech. I would have thought that she would discuss the paper on her climate blog, but she hasn't so far. She's probably just modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Jennifer Francis here at Rutgers does a lot of work related to just this. Here is her recorded presentation from this year's AMS meeting (disclaimer: I haven't listened to the entire thing yet, so if it isn't as relevant as I thought I apologize. It is interesting so far). Title: Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes? Author: Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University http://ams.confex.co...cordingid=19239 "The question is not whether the sea ice loss can be affecting the atmospheric circulation on a large scale - it is hot can it not be?" http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_2009GL037274.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/about/press_release/20120201/#z1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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