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Feb. 19th 2012 Winter Storm Obs./Disc.


WilkesboroDude

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Probably so. Also getting some deeper returns south-west of Charlotte than will lift north-east for most other areas to our east. Slowly, but surely.

Starting to like the heavier returns from Taylorsville back down to Forest City.

Yeah, we have moderate rain falling here at the Catawba/Alexander County line. Temp continues to drop. Down to 34.8°.

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The 12Z Euro snowfall has just been released. I'd call it a mixed result. For the Triad and Triangle, yes it drops slightly less than the 0Z Euro's 4-5". However, it still drops a healthy 3", which is better than the 12Z GFS' mainly 1-2".

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Yea but the bulk of that is moving ne into wv.

BTW- 34 lgt rain, had snow sleet earlier when precip was harder

There should be enough easterly movement with it to hit us. Central WVA is actually now the cutoff line for winter weather products altogether now. I like what I see when viewing the Knoxville radar.

My conditions are the same as yours here in Wilkes. As of typing this precip has finally picked back up. Not looking out right now but I hear sleet. This should hit you, I see even better returns popping up approaching southern Yadkin County.

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The suppressed 0z NAM solution is looking to be very wrong. It squashed the warm nose, incorrectly, in the TN Valley. I don't even know that I would call it that...it's more like that the cold air is taking its time dropping in elevation. Also, there is a slight hint that part of the circulation of this storm is going to go up the spine of the Apps.

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Ray's Weather Center

Main band of snow is setting up over VA/KY at this time, and on its present course, will miss NW NC. This will slash into expected totals.

app_2_2231777543_681.gif

Like · · @raysweather on Twitter · 4 minutes ago via

:whistle:

Arrghh... looks like the Cross Country Skis stay waxed on the rack.

For this current 2nd round of precip (yesterday last night was the first) , turning out to be an Apps Runner after all.

Hopefully the shortwave back in Missouri will be our salvation.

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Mesoscale Disco- good news for everyone in central NC, especially north of 40:

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KY AND SRN WV...WRN/S CNTRL VA...NWRN AND N

CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 191747Z - 192145Z

HEAVY SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL

APPALACHIANS...LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO

SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. INCH AN HOUR RATES WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDERSNOW MAY BE

POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY ON

TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW / ANALYZED NEAR THE SERN

GA/SWRN SC BORDER /...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. GREATEST

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER ERN NC AND ADJACENT WATERS CONFIRM THIS

PROGRESSION...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH TO BACK TO

A MORE NLY DIRECTION...DRAWING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION. SOME COOLING HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED...WITH 5 DEGREE

SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 3 HRS ACROSS INTERIOR

PORTIONS OF SRN VA...NC...AND NWRN SC. COOLING HAS ALSO BEEN

PARTICULARLY NOTED NEAR ROANOKE WHERE DYNAMIC PROCESSES MAY BE

CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE

COLUMN. IN THIS AREA...THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV

IMAGERY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET

DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF VERTICAL MOTION...WITH

MOISTENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FURTHER ENHANCING HEAVY SNOWFALL

POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE EAST...FURTHER COOLING AND MOISTENING

WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW/HEAVY SNOW...WHICH SHOULD

OCCUR LATER TODAY AS GREATER MOISTURE NOTED IN SC ADVECTS NWD AND

COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL

ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MO/

PROGRESSES SEWD. TO THE WEST...A TRANSITORY THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW MAY

BE POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ON THE HEELS OF GREATER

MOISTURE.

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I think I'll be lucky to see 1-2 inches now, So busto on the 4-6 Blacksburg has for me... JMO

4-6?

This is the actual forecast for Mt Airy

This Afternoon: Sleet before 4pm, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 44. Northeast wind between 9 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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Down to 34 here with a misty/light rain falling. Occasionally with a bigger wind gust Ill see a few flurries mixed in, but nothing to write home about yet.

36 here, DP 34. A huge .07 of precip for the day. Impossible to have mixing because one drop hits the ground before the next begins to fall.

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I am starting to smell increasing bust potential for the triangle if current radar trends are any indication over North GA/Eastern TN. We shall see though. This in association with with the upper disturbance.

No doubt it'll be a little further north, but not by much. The 00z models had the northern part of the precip shield much further north across KY and VA than it has been. But they've also been a bit wrong on the southern end. We'll just have to see what happens when the coastal low takes over.

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