Amos83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Precip is really starting to fill in nicely around Columbia and the upstate of SC. That should help cool temps as well as we move into the noon and early afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 As much as I hate to agree with Tullioz, he's right about the main band being north of the NC/VA border. That's becoming abundantly clear with the short term models. I guess you don't see the secondary band still back on the GA/TN border thats dropping similar rates to what I mentioned above over Chattanooga currently. That should be able to pivot into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 helicity is for severe weather. You need to change this to 700 mb omega. Thanks! I get that backwards...On my phone so it's hard to post images too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This drizzle and strong wind is enough already to bring temperatures down. They're falling and fast. Down to 37.8F here. And that isn't all, if that heavy drizzle can bring temps down.. this coming from SC can bring them down even further i'd bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looking at this system evolve today, it is apparent that the Euro absolutely nailed this system from several days out. The GFS and NAM have waffled to almost every solution imaginable. The Euro, minus a few normal directional shifts, has been king. Pretty amazing. I do think the Euro peforms the best during warm winters, but struggles w/ colder winters and a -NAO such as last winter. Pretty wet here in NE TN w/ increasing precip rates and temps holding at 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wind has finally made the shift in Asheville. Quite gusty now but, The temp is really lagging behind the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Guys, I just wouldn't put a lot of stock in where the RUC is forming the deformation band yet. In the Christmas storm, at 00z the RUC had the band directly over RDU, and hour after hour it continued to show it directly over RDU. Greg Fishel even showed the RUC on air at 11pm and it still showed that. Where did the band end up forming? 25-30 miles southeast of RDU over I-95. That was at the same hour the RUC was still showing it over RDU. So a 12 hr + forecast of a deformation band isn't to be trusted in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On my way home to Raleigh. VERY heavy snow near Wytheville, VA. Slush accumulating on highways already at least 1" if not 2" on grass...winter wonderland here guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Temps falling fast here since about 7 this morning. Now at 36 with a dewpoint of 33..... lets see whats gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Very nice ! 41 here This drizzle and strong wind is enough already to bring temperatures down. They're falling and fast. Down to 37.8F here. And that isn't all, if that heavy drizzle can bring temps down.. this coming from SC can bring them down even further i'd bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 In NC, the 12Z GFS is even further north than the 6Z GFS, which was quite a bit further north than the 0Z GFS with the sig. snowfall. The 0Z GFS had given both the Triad and Triangle ~5". The 6Z GFS knocked it down to 1-3". The 12Z GFS is giving them under 2" with the 2" line almost to the NC/VA border. These are rather dramatic shifts over just a 6-12 hour period of runs, especially considering the closeness of the event. It will be interesting to see which of these three GFS runs will verify the closest. Any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On my way home to Raleigh. VERY heavy snow near Wytheville, VA. Slush accumulating on highways already at least 1" if not 2" on grass...winter wonderland here guys. TWC is reporting from there at a Ramada along I-77, stop by, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like RaleighWx's call map is going to be about right. Excellent call on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 its not a good idea to use a global model for something occurring within 12 hours. In NC, the 12Z GFS is even further north than the 6Z GFS, which was quite a bit further north than the 0Z GFS with the sig. snowfall. The 0Z GFS had given both the Triad and Triangle ~5". The 6Z GFS knocked it down to 1-3". The 12Z GFS is giving them under 2" with the 2" line almost to the NC/VA border. These are rather dramatic shifts over just a 6-12 hour period of runs, especially considering the closeness of the event. It will be interesting to see which of these three GFS runs will verify the closest. Any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sleet/Snow mix in Mt Airy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The best place to spot the comma head is to track the 850 low (which is usually east to ese of the deformation zone) and it basically goes west to east across the state which IMO coincides well with the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 its not a good idea to use a global model for something occurring within 12 hours. Yea, it may not be a good idea to use a global this close, but I find it to be very interesting and good to note for verification purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 I feel sorry for you guys still looking at models from Charlotte to Raleigh. Winter precip is falling and additional precip developing near Greenville,SC is poised this way. Time to look at the radar and out the window instead of your computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Currently 45 degrees here with rain. Woohoo. Still can't believe people are getting this hyped up over a cold rain with maybe a few flurries mixed in. Exception would be the mountains of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sleet/Snow mix in Mt Airy I was wondering if it had changed to a mix there yet because that rain/mix line is creeping awfully close to me. Blow it my way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Light snow now being reported at the Reidsville, NC (KSIF) station. Shouldn't be long before GSO is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 38.3 I've had a steady drop in temps so far but I just dropped 2 degrees in 20 minutes.Get a gust every once in a while that's close to 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Light snow in Boone - not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriadDeac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NW High Point 37.8 Very light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The best place to spot the comma head is to track the 850 low (which is usually east to ese of the deformation zone) and it basically goes west to east across the state which IMO coincides well with the radar. Matches up pretty well with the expected 850 track, likely passing over RDU and going off around Nags Head. 3km rapid refresh has the band coming into the Triangle just after 8. Base reflectivity looks pretty good at that time, composite obviously moreso... I feel sorry for you guys still looking at models from Charlotte to Raleigh. Winter precip is falling and additional precip developing near Greenville,SC is poised this way. Time to look at the radar and out the window instead of your computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Down another degree to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Pic of the snow in Wytheville, VA...pic doesn't do it justice, it was really coming down. http://t.co/HT1zc8Qi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DP just increased gradually from 37 to 41 now and temps have also slightly increased and are now at 49. Moderate drizzle currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Matches up pretty well with the expected 850 track, likely passing over RDU and going off around Nags Head. 3km rapid refresh has the band coming into the Triangle just after 8. Base reflectivity looks pretty good at that time, composite obviously moreso... Yeah, this really looks like a central VA storm to me. None of the models are convincing me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Matches up pretty well with the expected 850 track, likely passing over RDU and going off around Nags Head. 3km rapid refresh has the band coming into the Triangle just after 8. Base reflectivity looks pretty good at that time, composite obviously moreso. is that the 12z hi-res wrf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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