tazaroo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Unfortunately the Nam and GFS have shifted at least the snowfall map a little North again here at the end. I hope that is wrong. Makes a big difference when your on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rain with occasional "slushballs". 40.2f/37dp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have been looking @ radar, water vapor and visible. After panning back and forth an hundred times, I think the 2 s/w are going to meet up. Reason why is the first s/w is rotaing and it has to slow down @ some point to make a complete rotation. Second is that there is dry hole around GA, which is going to fill in later you can see this on visible and WV images as louds are starting to blow-up or billow up. This tells me the storm is going to slow down to make this transition. Also this thing looks to have the ability to pull from gulf IF the roation is closed in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 37.8 Light Rain, with some snow mixing in. Maybe 95/5. Breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have been looking @ radar, water vapor and visible. After panning back and forth an hundred times, I think the 2 s/w are going to meet up. Reason why is the first s/w is rotaing and it has to slow down @ some point to make a complete rotation. Second is that there is dry hole around GA, which is going to fill in later you can see this on visible and WV images as louds are starting to blow-up or billow up. This tells me the storm is going to slow down to make this transition. Also this thing looks to have the ability to pull from gulf IF the roation is closed in time. Good observation- the base reflectivity has a "feathery" look to it over NEGA through the southern Piedmont- this area will begin to fill in even before the bulk of the main precip gets into central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This was supposed to prompt a met to say: "No, wait, our supersecret in-house model shows a quick burst of 1-2 inches for you tonight!" Sigh .... 43/41 at the Shelby Airport ..... I think it's telling that nobody's really chiming in with posts on how this can overperform or certain things look like they're coming together for a big surprise. It seems like there's a growing potential of underperfmance vs. overperformance....just looking at some of the recent model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have been looking @ radar, water vapor and visible. After panning back and forth an hundred times, I think the 2 s/w are going to meet up. Reason why is the first s/w is rotaing and it has to slow down @ some point to make a complete rotation. Second is that there is dry hole around GA, which is going to fill in later you can see this on visible and WV images as louds are starting to blow-up or billow up. This tells me the storm is going to slow down to make this transition. Also this thing looks to have the ability to pull from gulf IF the roation is closed in time. I hope this is correct. I hate to be negative here but another snowfall map from the wral in house model is showing less snowfall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 37.8 Light Rain, with some snow mixing in. Maybe 95/5. Breezy. Durn dude some snow mixing in already? Pics or it didn't happen! hehe good sign for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 why do people take these snow maps from the models so seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good observation- the base reflectivity has a "feathery" look to it over NEGA through the southern Piedmont- this area will begin to fill in even before the bulk of the main precip gets into central NC OK weenie post time, are you thinking that us in the CLT west to say Shelby have a good shot of cashing in on this if it occurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just broke out of the 40's.. Current: Temperature: 39.9 °F Dew Point: 36.3 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 why do people take these snow maps from the models so seriously? Every winter storm it's the same, you start doubting yourself and the storm. However if W/S is getting snow mixing in already then those snow fall maps are going to be off for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 39/34 Light rain, breezy It was 49 at 7 am this morning...big drop in temp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rain with occasional "slushballs". 40.2f/37dp Good to see so far east so early in the morning. Down to 40.0 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think it's telling that nobody's really chiming in with posts on how this can overperform or certain things look like they're coming together for a big surprise. It seems like there's a growing potential of underperfmance vs. overperformance....just looking at some of the recent model trends. I think it has more to do with this winter dramatically underperforming as a whole- kind of saps the whole ability to "believe" I like the base reflectivity sig. for central NC- it will fill in nicely later today- if you look at the national base reflectivity, you can start to "see" the signature and where the pivot could possibly occur- I have watched storms for years in NC, and this is a pretty good set up for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 37.8 Light Rain, with some snow mixing in. Maybe 95/5. Breezy. Are you on the western side of Winston? I'm actually in Kernersville....1/2 mile east from the winston line. Just drizzling here. It also looks a lit brighter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Unfortunately the Nam and GFS have shifted at least the snowfall map a little North again here at the end. I hope that is wrong. Makes a big difference when your on the line. You can add the RUC to that as well as it shows virtually nothing in NC as far as accumulating snow and shifts a little further North with each run. It really never has the heavy precipitation ever getting into NC and has it all in Virginia throughout the run. Another thing I noticed on the RUC is that the organized precipitation is out of the Western half of the state by 9pm at which point there would only be spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Are you on the western side of Winston? I'm actually in Kernersville....1/2 mile east from the winston line. Just drizzling here. It also looks a lit brighter out. I'm actually in north Davidson county, about a mile from the Forsyth county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 rain and sleet here in reidsville.about 25/75 rain to sleet. temp is 37 dp is 31 started a lot earlier then i expected. But cant wait for it to turn over to snow here. edit:snow is now mixing in .cant believe that it already has started to turn over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know theres always the lean towards the model snow map, but just be aware that even though the model has alot of intricate processes calculated, the method to output them is not the same. Also, some model microphysics schemes have some trouble with snow. They dont see the full spectrum and assume a spherical snow with one snow density. Just something to think about when cliff jumping over the flucuations in snow maps. Every winter storm it's the same, you start doubting yourself and the storm. However if W/S is getting snow mixing in already then those snow fall maps are going to be off for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You can add the RUC to that as well as it shows virtually nothing in NC as far as accumulating snow and shifts a little further North with each run. It really never has the heavy precipitation ever getting into NC and has it all in Virginia throughout the run. Another thing I noticed on the RUC is that the organized precipitation is out of the Western half of the state by 9pm at which point there would only be spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures in the mid 30's. It's almost pointless to look at the models at this point. The radar is telling the true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 OK weenie post time, are you thinking that us in the CLT west to say Shelby have a good shot of cashing in on this if it occurs? Looking at the temps., we still need to get temps/DP to come down quite a bit, but I like the radar sig- the Feb. 26, 2004 storm comes to mind- had the same look to it, but not the same temperature profile- just depends if and/or when/where the low bombs out- that is when you get "surprises" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The ruc is not the best model to follow for precipitation rates. Also, the qpf is one hour. Unless you have .25 inch per hour rain/liquid rates you are not going to see what you see on the other model outputs You can add the RUC to that as well as it shows virtually nothing in NC as far as accumulating snow and shifts a little further North with each run. It really never has the heavy precipitation ever getting into NC and has it all in Virginia throughout the run. Another thing I noticed on the RUC is that the organized precipitation is out of the Western half of the state by 9pm at which point there would only be spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think he was hallucinating. Are you on the western side of Winston? I'm actually in Kernersville....1/2 mile east from the winston line. Just drizzling here. It also looks a lit brighter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 My sujestion is to stop looking @ models and start looking at the facts. The facts are radar and Satelitte now. If you start seeing gulf transport or backbuilding , slowing of system bingo. If you don't see these things happen nada. I have been wrong plenty of times! BUt when you look @ history and facts of how we get snow and surpise snows these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looking at the temps., we still need to get temps/DP to come down quite a bit, but I like the radar sig- the Feb. 26, 2004 storm comes to mind- had the same look to it, but not the same temperature profile- just depends if and/or when/where the low bombs out- that is when you get "surprises" Thanks. I really hope we can pull out a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Last thing I would be doing is looking at the RUC this late in the game... Winter Storm Warning amounts increased for my area now... * Snow accumulations... 3 to 6 inches... with locally higher amounts expected across the foothills near the Blue Ridge mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The ruc is not the best model to follow for precipitation rates. Also, the qpf is one hour. Unless you have .25 inch per hour rain/liquid rates you are not going to see what you see on the other model outputs I was using a combination of the qpf and the simulated radar which has been trending more North with each run. As for precipitation rates if you look at MM per hour it is more useful in the one hour range. The RUC has been matching up pretty well with the current radar much of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Been watching http://cams.appstate.edu/ all morning. The bottom just dropped out, and it's pouring snow at ASU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Is there anyone at this point that still sees any possibility of the coastal bombing out any sooner than the models are forecasting, or is that pretty much completely off the table at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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