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Feb. 19th 2012 Winter Storm Obs./Disc.


WilkesboroDude

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Fwiw (mainly verification purposes), the 18Z GFS has brought the 4" line back south ~75 miles vs. the 12Z GFS. Now all of the sudden, many areas in/near the Triad/Triangle area as well as Roanoke Rapids are in the 3-5" range. It is too early to completely give up on something major for some folks. Keep hope and Brick alive!

Important: The RDU 850 isn't (and hasn't been) progged to drop to 0Z until ~7 PM.

We're going to need to get a lot more precip here then. It's not even raining now.

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We're going to need to get a lot more precip here then. It's not even raining now.

It is just a lull. I do think that the precip. coming over from the W Carolinas will solidify and give The Triangle eastward a decent dump after ~7 PM as the coastal deepens with the help of the second piece of energy.

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It's not even raining here now.

You're going to have a lull, most of the guidance picked up on it and current radar supports, the best banding potential will likely be approaching the triangle around 8. Watching the RAH radar and looking out the bedroom window off towards the west, very dark clouds associated with the precip that blossomed over the past hour between PGV and FAY heading north. Anyone in the triangle heading out to chase tonight, first and most importantly be safe! Second, Roanoke Rapids, somewhere in between RDU and there looks about as good a place as any given the short proximity.

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I'm liking the band associated with the 850 low coming ene from Charlotte currently. It seems to be building somewhat and heading toward Central NC. Now if it can just continue to build and last for a while as temps are finally crashing.

I will take anything. so far I have only seen a little sleet mixed in with the rain. Hopefully I'm not just having radar hallucinations.

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You're going to have a lull, most of the guidance picked up on it and current radar supports, the best banding potential will likely be approaching the triangle around 8. Watching the RAH radar and looking out the bedroom window off towards the west, very dark clouds associated with the precip that blossomed over the past hour between PGV and FAY heading north. Anyone in the triangle heading out to chase tonight, first and most importantly be safe! Second, Roanoke Rapids, somewhere in between RDU and there looks about as good a place as any given the short proximity.

Hope you are right!! 35 now.....had moderate rain for some time but just now finally mixing with sleet.

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live in rockingham county about 2 miles south of VA

have 2 -> 2.5 inches of snow and its still coming, although not as heavy as it was, also been picking up some wind.

The RUC along with other models show a lull approaching about now which it is, but showing some of the heaviest returns later in the evening . if that is the case with the sun going down now, the RUC has .6 - .8 of liquid still to come which will be in the form of snow. is that to be believed? it it overdone?

That would put me at 8 - 9 total for the storm.

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All in all, models have been right on with us turning over to snow. Its 5:30 some moderate snow coming down now.

We were fighting on and off sleet/drizzle for so long, was hoping we'd switch earlier but doesnt really matter as we kept getting lulls in precip all afternoon.

Looks like the actual deformation line is about to come into the mountains and head our way.. About time!

Radar-View.png

Starting to come down faster

Snow-5pm.png

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