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Feb. 19th 2012 Winter Storm Obs./Disc.


WilkesboroDude

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That's some very nice returns showing up for the entire Triad as well as all of Davidson and Randolph counties. It seems to match up well with the in-house model from WRAL yesterday which showed a local max in this area over towards Burlington. The snow transition seems to be right on schedule. The 0 line at 850 was scheduled to cross the Triad region around 6pm on Brad's video from last night. Let's see if reality matches the models. I see the potential for the back-building on the radars. Hang tight everyone and let's see if the deform band will be hype or a hero!

HRRR shows this building and coming through northern Wake/Durham...Probably a little to far from my house but I would imagine Brick/Widre should be happy with a couple of hours of heavy snowfall. You probably should see some of this too.

1ref_t6sfc_f06.png

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i think the best is going to miss me and you to the south and east this evening.

Looks like it. Still close enough to throw us some more light accumulating snow. Any development on the far west side would do wonders for us though. Something to watch for.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=GSP&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1329689042&lat=35.59632111&lon=-82.55567932&label=Asheville%2C+NC&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

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I drove down I-77 today from I-81 to Charlotte. Along I-81 was the best snow, probably a couple of inches on the grass and trees. When I was coming through around 1:30 or so it was snowing, small flakes and around 32- 33 degrees. After I got on 77 south snow diminished quickly, at the bottom of Fancy Gap it was a heavy rain/sleet/snow mix until about Iredell county, but nothing really accumulating on the grass and roads were just wet, temps were 34ish. Statesville had a mix of sleet and rain, 36 and then all rain as I moved into Mecklenburg.

No rain now, this last batch looks to miss me just to the north. I'm thinking the snowless winter for CLT continues.

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Event starting to come within the exper hrr window for us here in the East. Model does in fact sharpen the band up along the northern coastal plain as I suspected it may. Likely a result of several factors, maybe one you mentioned is the slp coming off around 1000mb deepening to 995-993 east of HAT. Also coincides with the period the H7 and 850 begin to deepens as they exit NE NC, and even some sound enhancement the high res meso models pick up on as the wind backs around to the NNE. All hope is not lost here yet, actually feeling a little better that areas between RDU-RWI may see an inch or two fall.

Fwiw (mainly verification purposes), the 18Z GFS has brought the 4" line back south ~75 miles vs. the 12Z GFS. Now all of the sudden, many areas in/near the Triad/Triangle area as well as Roanoke Rapids are in the 3-5" range. It is too early to completely give up on something major for some folks. Keep hope and Brick alive!

I do think that the precip. coming over from the W Carolinas will solidify and give The Triangle eastward a decent dump as the coastal deepens with the help of the second piece of energy.

Important: The RDU 850 isn't (and hasn't been) progged to drop to 0Z until ~7 PM.

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