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Feb. 19th 2012 Winter Storm Obs./Disc.


WilkesboroDude

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Moderate snow in Winston Salem with occasional sleet. Ground and parking lot is beginning to turn white.

A few miles west of downtown GSO. Rooftops already white. Grass areas dusted. Mulched landscaping is white. Heavier snow earlier has eased up. Waiting for next wave. I expect one inch (maybe two if lucky) by midnight tonight.

We haven't really seen anything of significance in northeastern High Point since the bout of sleet earlier.

The ground is still somewhat white from that, though.

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That's actually more than I expected out of this and I'll gladly take it this might be a case where my backyard does slightly better than to my north due to banding. Just want to see some flat white flakes falling from the sky.

Maybe..just maybe the deform can set-up north/south and give us a nice kick near the end.

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46 and raining here in east nc must be the warm nose we are under not expecting any snow here just rain. some suggest kinston getting some snow but i dont see that happen. the precip is dying out really fast.

Don't know where you are at exactly tim but my best guess would be 264 north at this point, north of 64 for any likely -accumulations.

Actually, the lowest SLP in all of the SE US (actually in all of the lower 48) as of 2 PM/19Z was near Savannah where it had fallen to 29.57" (1001.4 mb) at Hunter. This is near the location where both the 12Z GFS and Euro had progged the lowest pressure. However, they each had progged ~1004 mb as the lowest pessure. So, each of them is about 2.5 mb too high. Furthermore, even the 19Z RUC initialization has it ~1003 mb, which is ~1.5 mb too high.

This all tells me that the low is likely to be somewhat stronger than progged as it moves NE off the Carolinas. I wonder if this will help the Triangle of NC and further east??

By the way, it rose to 78 F at 2 PM here or ~6-8 F warmer than progged by the NWS earlier today as a result of more sunshine than expected. We just had a convective shower pass.

Event starting to come within the exper hrr window for us here in the East. Model does in fact sharpen the band up along the northern coastal plain as I suspected it may. Likely a result of several factors, maybe one you mentioned is the slp coming off around 1000mb deepening to 995-993 east of HAT. Also coincides with the period the H7 and 850 begin to deepens as they exit NE NC, and even some sound enhancement the high res meso models pick up on as the wind backs around to the NNE. All hope is not lost here yet, actually feeling a little better that areas between RDU-RWI may see an inch or two fall.

1ref_t6sfc_f12.png

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You can clearly see the 850mb low in the radar returns over upstate SC south of the NC southern foothills. The precip asscoiated with that will move ENE through the evening and likely intensify some. Look for returns to likely sprout along and just south of I-40 over the next few hours.

The best area maybe from around Danville to Roanoke Rapids.

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Gotta have faith I am looking forward to another snow slam video from you as the S/W works through later tonight......its about time we get lucky...

I won't be able to chase anything until 9pm or so. I would love to find that for sure.

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You can clearly see the 850mb low in the radar returns over upstate SC south of the NC southern foothills. The precip asscoiated with that will move ENE through the evening and likely intensify some. Look for returns to likely sprout along and just south of I-40 over the next few hours.

The best area maybe from around Danville to Roanoke Rapids.

HRRR shows this building and coming through northern Wake/Durham...Probably a little to far from my house but I would imagine Brick/Widre should be happy with a couple of hours of heavy snowfall. You probably should see some of this too.

1ref_t6sfc_f06.png

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