WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nothing but rain here. This was the band that was supposed to provide us with all our precip, so since it's all rain, looks like we'll just have to suffice with some backside flurries. Still better than I'd hoped for this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I agree, and what in the world difference does it make if it accumulates to 2 inches or all melts? It's not like this is going to be a major event for most in this forum. It might accumulate while it's snowing but it's going to melt when it stops, and if not then, it will early tomorrow. No sense in griping or arguing about it. Exactly. In fact, I'm really starting to become discouraged and I think the only way this even gets to a dusting at RDU now is if we get in on the deformation band. As I mentioned yesterday, that is going to be intense for someone, with 1-2" an hour rates and probably some thunder as mentioned by SPC, but with the late/non-existent H5 phasing and resultant more strung out 850 as it crosses NC, it appears the RUC, HRRR, NAM, and GFS trends of further north may be correct. I still won't place any bets on that, as models seem to almost never get the location of deformation bands correct, even at the 0th hr, but the trends are leaving me with a sinking feeling (pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 32.8 here and sleet mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Best post all week!!! I am half tempted to pin it... Folks, if you see your post gone please do not make another one right behind it saying the same thing. We are deleting probably about a dozen per page at this point, it was not some error, crap posts end up in the garbage can, quick! We are doing this in order to preserve the quality of the thread and keep it somewhat guided, sidebars, stuff about growing up somewhere, soil temps, and calling the event over before it has even started for many, etc... ---> need to stop, just a heads up if you see yours gone it was not some type of error clicking the reply button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Keeps switching between all snow to all sleet, back and forth. Not really helping that when the precip is coming down fast enough and it turns to snow.. the precip ends at least for a few mins. We have more patches of precip coming up, hopefully those last more so it can actually stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not sure what forecast you are seeing but sw still back in Tenn. Much more than 3 hours of precip left! I make up my own forecast as I go along. lol The opportunity for decent precipitation rates will be shutting off from West to East pretty quickly. The moisture in TN is already in the process of transferring to the East of the Mountains. This is in part because of the transfer of energy to the coastal low. Also as the coastal low moves Northeast the air in the mid levels will start to dry out pretty fast East of the mountains with a NW flow. All that will be left will be some low level moisture which will result in just drizzle for the remainder of the night. Temperature may even rise a few degrees towards midnight in the foothill and Western Piedmont before the skies begin to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriadDeac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NW High Point 32.9 Snow/Sleet mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 All snow now 31.8 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 HUGE SNOW FLAKES! Just flurries, though. Those are the first snow flakes I've seen since late March 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 HUGE SNOW FLAKES! Just flurries, though. Its a damn battle going on. Rain one minute, huge snow flakes the next, then sleet, then back to rain. Wish we could get consistent snow... Obvioulsy crazy dynamics going on up in the atmosphere above us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 In Matthew East's blog post he made a big deal out of the precip back building toward BMH and then the whole thing rotating through the piedmont later today. I've been watching carefully for any sign of this and so far it doesn't show any sign of happening. In fact the precip looks to be dwindling rather rapidly in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 I make up my own forecast as I go along. lol The opportunity for decent precipitation rates will be shutting off from West to East pretty quickly. The moisture in TN is already in the process of transferring to the East of the Mountains. This is in part because of the transfer of energy to the coastal low. Also as the coastal low moves Northeast the air in the mid levels will start to dry out pretty fast East of the mountains with a NW flow. All that will be left will be some low level moisture which will result in just drizzle for the remainder of the night. Temperature may even rise a few degrees towards midnight in the foothill and Western Piedmont before the skies begin to clear. Looking at the Greenville radar, I have yet to see the moisture leave the SC/GA border. It's showing orange/red now! There's nothing behind it, but it keeps throwing patches that eventually develop the lines of precip you see extending from Boone southward to just west of Charlotte. Sure it will be over in 3hours? Guess it could if all of rapidly pressed north-eastward with no additional development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sleet/snow mix and starting to come down at a good clip sticking to deck and grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG_Slick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Precip rate has let up significantly, but still some snow falling mixed with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Latest OBS from Gaffney, SC Temp: 35.6 DP: 34 Light rain with an occasional sleet pellet bouncing on the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Precip rate has let up significantly, but still some snow falling mixed with sleet Yeah, that is often the problem and is again. Looking at the patchy radar I just do not see an opportunity for anyone to get a long enough period of heavier snow to overcome that which can not be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Amazing! it went from rain/sleet, sleet, snow/sleet and all snow in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Exactly. In fact, I'm really starting to become discouraged and I think the only way this even gets to a dusting at RDU now is if we get in on the deformation band. As I mentioned yesterday, that is going to be intense for someone, with 1-2" an hour rates and probably some thunder as mentioned by SPC, but with the late/non-existent H5 phasing and resultant more strung out 850 as it crosses NC, it appears the RUC, HRRR, NAM, and GFS trends of further north may be correct. I still won't place any bets on that, as models seem to almost never get the location of deformation bands correct, even at the 0th hr, but the trends are leaving me with a sinking feeling (pun intended). Are you going to chase north at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm guessing you will lose! Because it's still on the ground and snowing lightly. Also roads are covered thats BLACKTOP roads the one that melt the fastest That was a pretty intense band that moved through Surry County. Now that it is exiting lets see how long it takes to melt. I bet 30 minutes from now it will all be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Starting to see flakes again. I'm not hearing the sleet anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 38 degrease with a cold rain. Looks lie CLT area is screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah, that is often the problem and is again. Looking at the patchy radar I just do not see an opportunity for anyone to get a long enough period of heavier snow to overcome that which can not be mentioned. Voldemort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hard sleet in Hillsborough just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like the radar is starting to fill in a little bit back towards the west, around the Hickory area. Are you guys down that way seeing sn, ip or rn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nothing here but stupid drizzle. I should have known better to believe the hype of the models. Of course, they go north with the storm on the day of the event. If anyone ever gets the snow forecast right in this area it's just a lucky guess. You can't depend on the models, and no one knows what will happen until it happens. There are just too many factors here that make it so complicated to forecast snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looking at the Greenville radar, I have yet to see the moisture leave the SC/GA border. It's showing orange/red now! There's nothing behind it, but it keeps throwing patches that eventually develop the lines of precip you see extending from Boone southward to just west of Charlotte. Sure it will be over in 3hours? Guess it could if all of rapidly pressed north-eastward with no additional development. Not sure if it is the case that far South, but the reds and yellows are likely the melting layer and looks more ominous than it is. In the next hour or two you will start to see this whole area of redeveloping cells start to move East at a faster pace. From now until 8pm is the best opportunity for the Foothills and the Western Piedmont to pick up any accumulations. What you have seen is what you will get from here on out. Bands of heavier precipitation followed by lulls. Where the bands consolidate like up in Southern Virginia is where you will find the accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Snow is picking up. I see no rain at all. Just snow. Oh, if only this trend would continue from here on out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ray at Raysweather.com has updated again: http://www.averyweat.../Beech+Mountain He notes that even though they were considerably lower than other outlets for forecasted snow accumulation, they still came in way high. Now lowered to a general 2" across the High Country that is far lower than what we saw last weekend with upslope. Everyone has tried very hard this winter, but the pattern is one that just can't be beat. We've all had a lot of salt poured on our wounds this winter. Now how about that extreme cold coming for the end of the week? @RyanMaue: The 966 mb cyclone over Maine in 6-days will be powerful enough to drag down extreme cold for E. USA in 6-days. http://policlimate.c..._uv850_nam.html (Please discuss in other long range thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 18z run 39/37 @ PGV w/ -rn, Kinston @ 43/43 20 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Are you going to chase north at all? I'm actually headed south...to work haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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