Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I am starting to smell increasing bust potential for the triangle if current radar trends are any indication over North GA/Eastern TN. We shall see though. This in association with with the upper disturbance. Yeah RAH just released a very long discussion which basically left the door open for everyone south of VA to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 HEAVY SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. INCH AN HOUR RATES WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDERSNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 KGSP just updated their snow totals grids. Avery County: Took us down to a general 3" with 5 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Agreed...850 temp advection is NOT cold at this point...if anything, it is neutral...not what you want to see when you already have a lack of cold air to work with...and as you stated radar trends over Tennessee are not looking good...it will be interesting to watch and see if precip refires east of the apps as the NW band of precip wraps around the 850 low later this afternoon... I am starting to smell increasing bust potential for the triangle if current radar trends are any indication over North GA/Eastern TN. We shall see though. This in association with with the upper disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The 12Z Euro snowfall has just been released. I'd call it a mixed result. For the Triad and Triangle, yes it drops slightly less than the 0Z Euro's 4-5". However, it still drops a healthy 3", which is better than the 12Z GFS' mainly 1-2". The thing I've noticed about looking at the European snowfall maps is that the Euro tends to overdo the southern edge of the snowfall accumulation in situations like this where you have low-level and surface temperature issues. I wouldn't expect much of the Euro's southern snow edge to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 4-6? This is the actual forecast for Mt Airy This Afternoon: Sleet before 4pm, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 44. Northeast wind between 9 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. They must have changed it since i last looked. lol Just looked on accuweather site, but this NWS forecast. It may not be updated? but this is what I was going by. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... .REST OF TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW. A CHANCE OF SLEET LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GSP still feeling good, despite the crappy radar and the fact that it's 42 here. Oh well, shows what I know about weather. Hopefully, good news for you guys downstream. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM...THE NEAR TERM WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE...AS THINGS PROGRESS PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED SO FAR. A MOD/HVY SNOW BAND SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP IN SRN VA...WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP STILL OVER ERN TN. ONCE THE DEFORMATION/UPPER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE NC MTNS...SNOW LEVELS SHUD FALL PRETTY RAPIDLY. TO THE EAST...COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL THRU THE 40S AND UPR 30S. TWEAKS TO QPF AND TEMPS RESULT IN SOME CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUM FCST. BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORIES ARE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Come on, lets throw in some better news. From wxbrad Don't give up.. not yet.. Rain here, temp still 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I share some of the radar return concerns, but I would imagine we would see it fill in nicely as upper forcing moves in. Just put up a quick blog post comparing the latest RPM to the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here in Mitchell County, NC @ 2600' 39 deg w/ moderate rain / snow mixing...huge flakes Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Updated 850MB map for 18z, shows the 0 line back south again.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 the meat and potatoes of the NWS Raleigh discussion....would be AWESOME if the Triad got into the winter storm warning criteria IF THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVES IS SLIGHTLY WRONG AND THE H85 LOW TRACK IS JUST 25-50 MILES DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS TO THE PTYPE/ACCUM FORECAST. A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH COULD RESULT IN MORE ACCUMS AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE A TRACK FURTHER NORTH WOULD RESULT IN LESS ACCUMS AND FURTHER NORTH. ADVISORIES/WARNINGS: WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT ACCUMULATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE VA BORDER...AND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD SUFFICE. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...PRIMARILY NEAR THE VA BORDER...AND A SHORT-FUSED WINTER STORM WARNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH LOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT A THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS/BLACK ICE NORTH OF HWY 64 TONIGHT THROUGH ~9 AM MONDAY MORNING...AFTER WHICH SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH OF HWY 64 IN SOME AREAS (MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS/SW PIEDMONT) TO COVER A POTENTIAL FOR A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLICK ROADS MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I share some of the radar return concerns, but I would imagine we would see it fill in nicely as upper forcing moves in. Just put up a quick blog post comparing the latest RPM to the current radar. Thanks Matt, I like that second map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 A mixture going on here now as big wet "dobs" are mixing in. Hard to believe, but, the Temp. is 40! DP 38. So, quite a difference in elevation apparently as heavy snow is now falling above 2000 ft with the temp of around freezing there. NE winds are probably why it is this mild here in the valley as they downslope off the mountains just to my NE. The mixed precip changed over to heavy snow in wise about an hour ago and covered everything in no time. Check this out. Here's a cam shot there: http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I share some of the radar return concerns, but I would imagine we would see it fill in nicely as upper forcing moves in. Just put up a quick blog post comparing the latest RPM to the current radar. Thanks for the update Matt, I was just looking at radar and it kinda killed my expectations if you know what I mean. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Updated 850MB map for 18z, shows the 0 line back south again.. http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=17 It's plotted it too far north here as it is below 0C with a mix falling with all snow down to 2000 ft. Models are bad for that here as they want to bring that TN. Valley warm nose a little too far up sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 36.9 and light rain here in southern Catawba Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah RAH just released a very long discussion which basically left the door open for everyone south of VA to bust. You must have read a different discussion, the one I read is upgrading the triad to WSW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You must have read a different discussion, the one I read is upgrading the triad to WSW! Really? I read the last discussion, and didn't see anywhere where they said they were going to upgrade us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like due west of Hickory some hefty DBZ's breaking out. Also think it's to early to start panicking. Look for Northern mtn counties to really start picking up in about an hour or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ok an update. Not much change though. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/winter-storm-unfolding-across-the-area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 From Brad P tweet 12 hour snowfall forecast from the HRR(High Resolution Rapid update model). http://fb.me/Ti2OOcWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 When is the low supposed to drop due south to central GA then transfer to the coast around SC/NC border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Every winter storm it's the same, you start doubting yourself and the storm. However if W/S is getting snow mixing in already then those snow fall maps are going to be off for sure. rain here, no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Finally some sleet mixing in here at the Catawba/Alexander County line. Temp 34.4° with dew point of 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 i think you'll see most folks north of i40 west of 77 change to snow by 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Transition going on here in Wilkes. No more rain. Heavy sleet accumulating. Brief coating already. Very hard sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm not giving up just yet....in fact am I looking at extracted data right from 12z NAM, shows thunder snow (KRZZ) 0 02/19 12Z 44 34 39 11 0.00 0.00 548 560 1.7 -15.4 1015 100 051OVC178 0.0 15.0 3 02/19 15Z 42 33 38 14 0.02 0.00 548 560 1.2 -16.5 1015 100 -RA 047OVC134 0.0 14.3 6 02/19 18Z 40 35 29 14 0.07 0.00 547 557 1.0 -16.9 1012 100 -RA 032OVC144 0.0 8.6 9 02/19 21Z 38 35 29 15 0.13 0.01 547 555 2.0 -19.0 1010 100 -TSRA 006OVC224 0.0 3.3 12 02/20 00Z 34 33 5 14 0.38 0.01 543 552 -1.4 -19.1 1011 100 TSSN 000OVC281 4.2 0.7 15 02/20 03Z 32 31 11 15 0.35 0.00 540 550 -1.0 -20.8 1012 100 -SN 000OVC171 3.8 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Heavy rain now, it had been light rain/drizzle but now its pouring. If this doesn't bring down temps even further and or maybe/hopefully turns us to snow.. I dont know what will 34.4 Edit: This is not heavy rain, it is heavy sleet!! Lots of sleet coming down. Under the yellow returns on radar in alexander county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.