snownerd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is the RR Model (http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1) reliable? If not, let me know and I will stop posting images from it. I am posting because the direction of the loop almost looks more NE than E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The latest from JB (Bastardi) You would think by now he could make better looking graphics even though the totals will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If that came to fruition....pretty sure Frederick would have less snow for the year than pretty much any spot in MD...including east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I live in the only spot in VA that gets no snow. All the way up in that far NW part of Frederick county. Nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You would think by now he could make better looking graphics even though the totals will bust. Even I make better snowfall maps with a large bust potential.... Here's my latest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I live in the only spot in VA that gets no snow. All the way up in that far NW part of Frederick county. Nightmare. You are like me. We need 50 miles. Not modeled miles, but the reality of what happens tomorrow. I've had my modeled forecast bust by that much plenty of times. No reason to think it can't happen. Our luck says its off by 50 miles the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here's what Wakefield thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Even I make better snowfall maps with a large bust potential.... Here's my latest: I think if anybody gets more than 6" it will look more like this. Just kidding of course about my area, but the other, I think elevation will be a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I really like Staunton, Waynesboro area for this storm. They look to be the bullseye. Only an hour and a half drive for me. Think I might chase tomorrow evening if there is no shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I really like Staunton, Waynesboro area for this storm. They look to be the bullseye. Only an hour and a half drive for me. Think I might chase tomorrow evening if there is no shift. Yeah, the mountains will do well, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The latest from JB (Bastardi) not a unreasonable map, probably a lil too north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think if anybody gets more than 6" it will look more like this. Just kidding of course about my area, but the other, I think elevation will be a big factor. Here's my latest map based on the "Wishful Thinking" model, only runs on my computer before any chance for snow. This isn't serious BTW... just for hahahahas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderhound Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'll post pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 QPF Some values directly, some estimated from images, ECMWF from what was said in the threads. DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm right on the 2 inch line, surprisingly enough that's exactly what I'm thinking too. It's not often than DT and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 QPF Some values directly, some estimated from images, ECMWF from what was said in the threads. for DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 for DCA? Yes, thanks. Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I am ready for 4-6 flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good map from DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good map from DT. Until it's wrong. I like the map but I don't really see anyone getting a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Is the RR Model (http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1) reliable? If not, let me know and I will stop posting images from it. I am posting because the direction of the loop almost looks more NE than E. Can't speak for the accuracy of the RR but a couple of the higher res models show something similar...IE...a period of 8-10 hours of the precip shield gaining latitude before the big shunt offshore...still think about 10 miles N of BWI on south is still in the game to get something worthwhile. N of there I think wiggle room has totally run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'll take my mostly cloudy and I will like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can't speak for the accuracy of the RR but a couple of the higher res models show something similar...IE...a period of 8-10 hours of the precip shield gaining latitude before the big shunt offshore...still think about 10 miles N of BWI on south is still in the game to get something worthwhile. N of there I think wiggle room has totally run out. I would say HRRR is out of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'll take my mostly cloudy and I will like it How do you think your getting mostly cloudy skies, yet your south of dc, unless your being sarcastic???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Might want to be in the westrrn end oit toward shortpump verses near thr airport. Even though it is not as obvious, those locations are at a highe altitude than the east end near airport. Should help snow totals out that way. Almost twice as elevated. The airport's elevation is 160. I'm close to 280 and the mall 3/4 of a mile north of me is 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is my thinking...been tough up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Almost twice as elevated. The airport's elevation is 160. I'm close to 280 and the mall 3/4 of a mile north of me is 300. With marginal events like this, you need all the elevation you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 How do you think your getting mostly cloudy skies, yet your south of dc, unless your being sarcastic???? He's setting it up so he isn't disappointed. This area is notorious for busting all the time. Us weanies have evolved defensive mechanisms for the sadness and despair watching snow miss us to the south and north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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