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Weekend "Storm" Discussion Part III, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I live in the only spot in VA that gets no snow. All the way up in that far NW part of Frederick county. Nightmare.

You are like me. We need 50 miles. Not modeled miles, but the reality of what happens tomorrow. I've had my modeled forecast bust by that much plenty of times. No reason to think it can't happen. Our luck says its off by 50 miles the other way.

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Is the RR Model (http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1) reliable? If not, let me know and I will stop posting images from it. I am posting because the direction of the loop almost looks more NE than E.

Can't speak for the accuracy of the RR but a couple of the higher res models show something similar...IE...a period of 8-10 hours of the precip shield gaining latitude before the big shunt offshore...still think about 10 miles N of BWI on south is still in the game to get something worthwhile. N of there I think wiggle room has totally run out.

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Can't speak for the accuracy of the RR but a couple of the higher res models show something similar...IE...a period of 8-10 hours of the precip shield gaining latitude before the big shunt offshore...still think about 10 miles N of BWI on south is still in the game to get something worthwhile. N of there I think wiggle room has totally run out.

I would say HRRR is out of its range

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Might want to be in the westrrn end oit toward shortpump verses near thr airport. Even though it is not as obvious, those locations are at a highe altitude than the east end near airport.

Should help snow totals out that way.

Almost twice as elevated. The airport's elevation is 160. I'm close to 280 and the mall 3/4 of a mile north of me is 300.

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How do you think your getting mostly cloudy skies, yet your south of dc, unless your being sarcastic????

He's setting it up so he isn't disappointed. This area is notorious for busting all the time. Us weanies have evolved defensive mechanisms for the sadness and despair watching snow miss us to the south and north and west.

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