ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the GFS usually has a broad precip field.....it would be encouraging to see it come along at 18z..... While the euro is the best model, it's not perfect. Rgem coming up is pretty important, IMO, to see if the NAM/JMA have a clue with the stronger precip north. Ukie is just as north as the nam as well, but has lighter bands on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, if the NAM were to happen...key word.."were" at least it would be practically dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is harder to toss at this range tho QPF likely high. I don't think anyone can say with certainty where banding sets up on N edge tho there is usually some space between it and actual edge. If GFS goes that dir heavily might be something but the Euro seems locked in more or les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good luck on the snow guys..hope DC and maybe up to MD can pick up a few inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at FOUS for DCA and NAM has 0.46 from the 18Z run. Very nice trend here and i would not ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is harder to toss at this range tho QPF likely high. I don't think anyone can say with certainty where banding sets up on N edge tho there is usually some space between it and actual edge. If GFS goes that dir heavily might be something but the Euro seems locked in more or les. The euro before Jan. 27, 2011 had .50"-.75" qpf for 3-4 runs in a row for NYC. The GFS had even less; only .50" total for 3 runs in a row. NYC received triple that amount. Of course, that was a more dynamic event, but the euro is not a perfect model, especially for qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at FOUS for DCA and NAM has 0.46 from the 18Z run. Very nice trend here and i would not ignore it. I can ignore it. I've seen it screw the pooch this close before. The difference here, is whether or not the GFS follows. With the QPF and the nrn edge so sharp. 30 miles means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 In case anyone hasn't seen the NAM precip, this is the 18Z 24 hour total @ 42 hours: 50 miles from 0.01 to 0.75 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z rgem is not in the nam/jma camp. Looks like 4-6mm for the DCA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z rgem is not in the nam/jma camp. Looks like 4-6mm for the DCA area. Another step backward. NAM can either score a coup or burnish its reputation further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The euro before Jan. 27, 2011 had .50"-.75" qpf for 3-4 runs in a row for NYC. The GFS had even less; only .50" total for 3 runs in a row. NYC received triple that amount. Of course, that was a more dynamic event, but the euro is not a perfect model, especially for qpf totals. I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Would have felt better if the rgem didn't go so south on its new run. This model is usually very good inside of 36 hours, especially with banding and mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Let's see what the 18Z GFS does... Then adjust or don't adjust (at least for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Weenie forecasting tool of the day. SPC sref dendritic growth zone. Again I like to reiterate I am forecasting 0" for DC. Dendritic growth zone has had some weenie forecasting victories in the past including 1/30/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well as of now I still think RIC s the place to be. Given temp issues and precip wasted in rain maybe 4-6 inches is the best they could do, but at least it seems like a lock. Actually probably west of there ..deeper toward the Blue Ridge has the best shot of a major snowstorm, but I'm heading up I-95 ..not gonna get too daring. LOL I wouldn't trust the NAM until at least 0Z personally..I've seen it fold even as late as this. The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY GFS is pretty awful for DCA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well as of now I still think RIC s the place to be. Given temp issues and precip wasted in rain maybe 4-6 inches is the best they could do, but at least it seems like a lock. Actually probably west of there ..deeper toward the Blue Ridge has the best shot of a major snowstorm, but I'm heading up I-95 ..not gonna get too daring. LOL I wouldn't trust the NAM until at least 0Z personally..I've seen it fold even as late as this. Might want to be in the westrrn end oit toward shortpump verses near thr airport. Even though it is not as obvious, those locations are at a highe altitude than the east end near airport. Should help snow totals out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Weenie forecasting tool of the day. SPC sref dendritic growth zone. Again I like to reiterate I am forecasting 0" for DC. Dendritic growth zone has had some weenie forecasting victories in the past including 1/30/2010. I think that just denotes well where the banding will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The latest from JB (Bastardi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think that just denotes well where the banding will be Well if we were to use our brain, I'd think you'd have to have precip to get banding of snow. Just the way I see it, though I guess that may just be the favorable area, though Amped/Madcheese is right, it hit on 1/30/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 we've still got the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well if we were to use our brain, I'd think you'd have to have precip to get banding of snow. Just the way I see it, though I guess that may just be the favorable area, though Amped/Madcheese is right, it hit on 1/30/2010 Well, no shiz sherlock.. but it lines up well right with the nw part of the precip shield.. aka where the banding almost always is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is the RR Model (http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1) reliable? If not, let me know and I will stop posting images from it. I am posting because the direction of the loop almost looks more NE than E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The latest from JB (Bastardi) You would think by now he could make better looking graphics even though the totals will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If that came to fruition....pretty sure Frederick would have less snow for the year than pretty much any spot in MD...including east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I live in the only spot in VA that gets no snow. All the way up in that far NW part of Frederick county. Nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You would think by now he could make better looking graphics even though the totals will bust. Even I make better snowfall maps with a large bust potential.... Here's my latest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I live in the only spot in VA that gets no snow. All the way up in that far NW part of Frederick county. Nightmare. You are like me. We need 50 miles. Not modeled miles, but the reality of what happens tomorrow. I've had my modeled forecast bust by that much plenty of times. No reason to think it can't happen. Our luck says its off by 50 miles the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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