mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ. Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people. it is and to be fair folks, Messenger gives the same model insight/analysis in the NE forum and does a great job imho; ironically, he gets a lot of flack from weenies in the NE forum too, so don't take it as anything other than his unbiased opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I may have jumped all over you unfairly but last night we had a few jokers in here and perhaps they poisoned the well for you a bit. Sorry if I was quick to snap at you. No problem, like I said I'm here for the weather I don't get into the regional stuff. I hope you guys all get buried and to be honest I don't pay much attention to where anyone is from in the signatures...so when I make a comment it's not directed at anyone/region. This one has fascinated me from the beginning only because of the modeling inconsistencies. I'm still half wondering if we see a bump north in the end, and am definitely hoping that happens for those of you on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro Verbatim, other models just add confusion. I do remember a storm back in January of 2007 where 24 hours before EVERY model, GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM, all showed a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" type snow for our area and only the NAM was saying it wouldnt develop in time and slide OTS. Of course the NAM won in that case and every other model folded. Now the NAM is crap overall with large scale features and worthless outside 24 hours for the most part when trying to forecast synoptic scale events but saying just take the euro verbatim is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No problem, like I said I'm here for the weather I don't get into the regional stuff. I hope you guys all get buried and to be honest I don't pay much attention to where anyone is from in the signatures...so when I make a comment it's not directed at anyone/region. This one has fascinated me from the beginning only because of the modeling inconsistencies. I'm still half wondering if we see a bump north in the end, and am definitely hoping that happens for those of you on the fringe. I am pretty well out of this one, I am very far north in our region, might as well be in PA but I am rooting like hell for the DC people. I at least got an 8" snow back in October and they missed out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The eta also has .50"+ for DCA. Nice to see the NAM bump qpf to near .50" for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The eta also has .50"+ for DCA. Nice to see the NAM bump qpf to near .50" for the DC area. If the GFS and RGEM show something similar, then maybe I will take more notice. Right now, its meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the GFS usually has a broad precip field.....it would be encouraging to see it come along at 18z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the GFS usually has a broad precip field.....it would be encouraging to see it come along at 18z..... While the euro is the best model, it's not perfect. Rgem coming up is pretty important, IMO, to see if the NAM/JMA have a clue with the stronger precip north. Ukie is just as north as the nam as well, but has lighter bands on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, if the NAM were to happen...key word.."were" at least it would be practically dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is harder to toss at this range tho QPF likely high. I don't think anyone can say with certainty where banding sets up on N edge tho there is usually some space between it and actual edge. If GFS goes that dir heavily might be something but the Euro seems locked in more or les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good luck on the snow guys..hope DC and maybe up to MD can pick up a few inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at FOUS for DCA and NAM has 0.46 from the 18Z run. Very nice trend here and i would not ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is harder to toss at this range tho QPF likely high. I don't think anyone can say with certainty where banding sets up on N edge tho there is usually some space between it and actual edge. If GFS goes that dir heavily might be something but the Euro seems locked in more or les. The euro before Jan. 27, 2011 had .50"-.75" qpf for 3-4 runs in a row for NYC. The GFS had even less; only .50" total for 3 runs in a row. NYC received triple that amount. Of course, that was a more dynamic event, but the euro is not a perfect model, especially for qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at FOUS for DCA and NAM has 0.46 from the 18Z run. Very nice trend here and i would not ignore it. I can ignore it. I've seen it screw the pooch this close before. The difference here, is whether or not the GFS follows. With the QPF and the nrn edge so sharp. 30 miles means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 In case anyone hasn't seen the NAM precip, this is the 18Z 24 hour total @ 42 hours: 50 miles from 0.01 to 0.75 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z rgem is not in the nam/jma camp. Looks like 4-6mm for the DCA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z rgem is not in the nam/jma camp. Looks like 4-6mm for the DCA area. Another step backward. NAM can either score a coup or burnish its reputation further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The euro before Jan. 27, 2011 had .50"-.75" qpf for 3-4 runs in a row for NYC. The GFS had even less; only .50" total for 3 runs in a row. NYC received triple that amount. Of course, that was a more dynamic event, but the euro is not a perfect model, especially for qpf totals. I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Would have felt better if the rgem didn't go so south on its new run. This model is usually very good inside of 36 hours, especially with banding and mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm looking for consistency more than a brand name. I don't think we can say the NAM has had a ton of consistency. I do take its banding signals to heart tho.. Could be a fine line here. Let's see what the 18Z GFS does... Then adjust or don't adjust (at least for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Weenie forecasting tool of the day. SPC sref dendritic growth zone. Again I like to reiterate I am forecasting 0" for DC. Dendritic growth zone has had some weenie forecasting victories in the past including 1/30/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well as of now I still think RIC s the place to be. Given temp issues and precip wasted in rain maybe 4-6 inches is the best they could do, but at least it seems like a lock. Actually probably west of there ..deeper toward the Blue Ridge has the best shot of a major snowstorm, but I'm heading up I-95 ..not gonna get too daring. LOL I wouldn't trust the NAM until at least 0Z personally..I've seen it fold even as late as this. The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS is a little less interesting for MBY GFS is pretty awful for DCA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well as of now I still think RIC s the place to be. Given temp issues and precip wasted in rain maybe 4-6 inches is the best they could do, but at least it seems like a lock. Actually probably west of there ..deeper toward the Blue Ridge has the best shot of a major snowstorm, but I'm heading up I-95 ..not gonna get too daring. LOL I wouldn't trust the NAM until at least 0Z personally..I've seen it fold even as late as this. Might want to be in the westrrn end oit toward shortpump verses near thr airport. Even though it is not as obvious, those locations are at a highe altitude than the east end near airport. Should help snow totals out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Weenie forecasting tool of the day. SPC sref dendritic growth zone. Again I like to reiterate I am forecasting 0" for DC. Dendritic growth zone has had some weenie forecasting victories in the past including 1/30/2010. I think that just denotes well where the banding will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The latest from JB (Bastardi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think that just denotes well where the banding will be Well if we were to use our brain, I'd think you'd have to have precip to get banding of snow. Just the way I see it, though I guess that may just be the favorable area, though Amped/Madcheese is right, it hit on 1/30/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 we've still got the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well if we were to use our brain, I'd think you'd have to have precip to get banding of snow. Just the way I see it, though I guess that may just be the favorable area, though Amped/Madcheese is right, it hit on 1/30/2010 Well, no shiz sherlock.. but it lines up well right with the nw part of the precip shield.. aka where the banding almost always is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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