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Weekend "Storm" Discussion Part III, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I said that over in the other thread, your area has had the worst stretch of anyone the last decade or so compared to climo. This might break that streak, I think places with some elevation near Roanoke and that area will do very well. Especially if the low holds together just a bit longer before getting shredded by the northern branch could se a foot in a lot of places.

Yeah, we had a HUGE 10+ drought. Ended in March 09. Still, I've lived here 16 years and 3 have been at or above normal. 2-3 were one standard deviation (which is HUGE down here). The rest have sucked.

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Stop acting like a regional clown. If someone wants to follow the weather in another area there is nothing wrong with that as long as they don't step over any lines.

And a good group of people are going to get a lot of snow. It's kind of sad that in a weather forum this is what it's come to. It's not like it's a miss, this is going to be a terrific event for a lot of the region, and members of this board. Western NC and a lot of VA/WV get smoked.

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And a good group of people are going to get a lot of snow. It's kind of sad that in a weather forum this is what it's come to. It's not like it's a miss, this is going to be a terrific event for a lot of the region, and members of this board. Western NC and a lot of VA/WV get smoked.

Don't feel bad, I've had the same thing happen before that's one of the reasons I rarely post in your region or in southeast region.

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Don't feel bad, I've had the same thing happen before that's one of the reasons I rarely post in your region or in southeast region.

But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ.

Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion

The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people.

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NAM actually made a fairly significant change in the evolution of the system on this run. No idea if its on to anything but it has a much more consolodated system. Take a look at how there is not as much of a split in the system now, also evident by how the precip totals were cut way down over KY and central WV. Sim radar indicates a better organized system once its to the coast now also. If its accurate I would say its a positive change even though liquid output might be the same from 12z.

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But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ.

Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion

The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people.

I may have jumped all over you unfairly but last night we had a few jokers in here and perhaps they poisoned the well for you a bit. Sorry if I was quick to snap at you.

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But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ.

Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion

The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people.

it is

and to be fair folks, Messenger gives the same model insight/analysis in the NE forum and does a great job imho; ironically, he gets a lot of flack from weenies in the NE forum too, so don't take it as anything other than his unbiased opinion

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I may have jumped all over you unfairly but last night we had a few jokers in here and perhaps they poisoned the well for you a bit. Sorry if I was quick to snap at you.

No problem, like I said I'm here for the weather I don't get into the regional stuff. I hope you guys all get buried and to be honest I don't pay much attention to where anyone is from in the signatures...so when I make a comment it's not directed at anyone/region.

This one has fascinated me from the beginning only because of the modeling inconsistencies. I'm still half wondering if we see a bump north in the end, and am definitely hoping that happens for those of you on the fringe.

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Euro Verbatim, other models just add confusion.

I do remember a storm back in January of 2007 where 24 hours before EVERY model, GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM, all showed a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" type snow for our area and only the NAM was saying it wouldnt develop in time and slide OTS. Of course the NAM won in that case and every other model folded. Now the NAM is crap overall with large scale features and worthless outside 24 hours for the most part when trying to forecast synoptic scale events but saying just take the euro verbatim is foolish.

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No problem, like I said I'm here for the weather I don't get into the regional stuff. I hope you guys all get buried and to be honest I don't pay much attention to where anyone is from in the signatures...so when I make a comment it's not directed at anyone/region.

This one has fascinated me from the beginning only because of the modeling inconsistencies. I'm still half wondering if we see a bump north in the end, and am definitely hoping that happens for those of you on the fringe.

I am pretty well out of this one, I am very far north in our region, might as well be in PA but I am rooting like hell for the DC people. I at least got an 8" snow back in October and they missed out completely.

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