psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 JMA went north with the precip from last nights run I have no idea what the JMA showed last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Come on Down, Randy-- price of admission-- small flask of Makers Mark. After this winter we all need a big flask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 After this winter we all need a big flask I feel bad for you all, but I had 35 inches all of 09-10 (My climo is 21 a year) compared to the 70+ you all had there. And, Jan 26 was bust here last year. It sucks..wish we could all share but SW VA is due for some events that screw others. Really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I feel bad for you all, but I had 35 inches all of 09-10 (My climo is 21 a year) compared to the 70+ you all had there. And, Jan 26 was bust here last year. It sucks..wish we could all share but SW VA is due for some events that screw others. Really is. I said that over in the other thread, your area has had the worst stretch of anyone the last decade or so compared to climo. This might break that streak, I think places with some elevation near Roanoke and that area will do very well. Especially if the low holds together just a bit longer before getting shredded by the northern branch could se a foot in a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 When was the last really good overperformer in your area? Was it March 09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah we had the same disco up in the New England forum as well. Earlier GFS runs grabbed two of those nrn stream s/w's if you recall, but it really had to take the perfect set of circumstances working in perfect harmony to bring this up the coast. When you look at the big picture, it's just not a pretty 500mb pattern across NAMR. My CWg posts pretty much said the same thing each day. the multiyude of waves made this one tougher than normal for the models and the multitude of waves made a full phase be really a long shot. Even a 4 inch event for dca would have been a big deal since they are so rare in nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I said that over in the other thread, your area has had the worst stretch of anyone the last decade or so compared to climo. This might break that streak, I think places with some elevation near Roanoke and that area will do very well. Especially if the low holds together just a bit longer before getting shredded by the northern branch could se a foot in a lot of places. Yeah, we had a HUGE 10+ drought. Ended in March 09. Still, I've lived here 16 years and 3 have been at or above normal. 2-3 were one standard deviation (which is HUGE down here). The rest have sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's amazing, it's 60 degrees in Charlottesville, VA and there's a Winter Storm Watch up for 5 or more inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z NAM rolling out. Looks like it made that final adjustment in pulling back the southern s/w a few hours. Finally it's in its proverbial wheelhouse...24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM's caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm going to politely ask you to leave, we know how to read models. Enjoy the sunshine while I get my cirrus. Stop acting like a regional clown. If someone wants to follow the weather in another area there is nothing wrong with that as long as they don't step over any lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Low placement and precip shield are coming in slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 wish someone would put you in your proverbial wheelhouse I'll be at the conference this year, hope to see you. -- 18z and 12z NAM overlayed, subtle changes in the handling of both features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Can we have a little civility in here? This will be my last post about this as I don't want to clutter up the model thread but I think most of us are tired of certain outsiders coming into our thread to tell us little brains how this model or that model sucks and we shouldn't expect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Stop acting like a regional clown. If someone wants to follow the weather in another area there is nothing wrong with that as long as they don't step over any lines. And a good group of people are going to get a lot of snow. It's kind of sad that in a weather forum this is what it's come to. It's not like it's a miss, this is going to be a terrific event for a lot of the region, and members of this board. Western NC and a lot of VA/WV get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 And a good group of people are going to get a lot of snow. It's kind of sad that in a weather forum this is what it's come to. It's not like it's a miss, this is going to be a terrific event for a lot of the region, and members of this board. Western NC and a lot of VA/WV get smoked. Don't feel bad, I've had the same thing happen before that's one of the reasons I rarely post in your region or in southeast region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nam tighter with the northern edge which is debatable, but it gets heavier banding into dc this run, something to get you guys down there interested about in case it trends north a bit before/until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Meh... rogue 30 to 35 dbZ band shows up on sim radar at 30 on 18z NAM in N VA into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM gives DC 3 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Although the NAM tends to overdo it, very good QPF output for SW/South/Central VA per this run. Northern NC even gets in on the game. Far SW VA is the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nam looks interesting fwiw, pushes .25 to Baltimore or a bit north, northern edge a bit squashed. Gives us hope i guess, esp. if it comes a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 .5 just south of dc on instants weathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow...absolutely hammers SW and parts of central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I am going to say that its the NAM up to it old tricks... but that 0.5 QPF line tickles DCA at 36 just SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 SLP is a bit stronger at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't feel bad, I've had the same thing happen before that's one of the reasons I rarely post in your region or in southeast region. But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ. Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 SLP is a bit stronger at 36. Looks healthy as it moves offshore, NAM advances the .5" line further north, southern Delaware will do well if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM actually made a fairly significant change in the evolution of the system on this run. No idea if its on to anything but it has a much more consolodated system. Take a look at how there is not as much of a split in the system now, also evident by how the precip totals were cut way down over KY and central WV. Sim radar indicates a better organized system once its to the coast now also. If its accurate I would say its a positive change even though liquid output might be the same from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro Verbatim, other models just add confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 But you know never from me, I don't get the whole regionalization thing anyway, weather is weather and it doesn't break down along subforums. From a historical perspective this will be a lot of fun to watch for those of you in VA/WV/WNC...and hopefully parts of MD, DE and SNJ. Balt put out an updated discussion a bit ago, very good one. http://www.nws.noaa....type=discussion The 18z NAM is outstanding for a lot of people. I may have jumped all over you unfairly but last night we had a few jokers in here and perhaps they poisoned the well for you a bit. Sorry if I was quick to snap at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.