ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z ukie at hour 36, is similar to the NAM with the precip shield. Can't see hour 42 precip until ewall updates, but it's definitely not in the gfs camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At this range it is definitely problematic that the GFS which usually has one of the most expansive precip fields has nothing north of DC for 2 straight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I like Wes' hold...0 to 1" for DC proper...1 to 2 for EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seeing the rgem, it's strange that the ggem is south and similar to the gfs. Hopefully, the euro follows the UKIE. Pulling for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 At this range it is definitely problematic that the GFS which usually has one of the most expansive precip fields has nothing north of DC for 2 straight runs Yeah, I think or chances rest with a renegade band or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, I think or chances rest with a renegade band or two. yes...I think maybe the upside is not so "up"....which is 1 sloppy inch versus nothing...there is always the chance of a model bust with such a tight gradient, but at this range, you definitely want to see the models pasting you to have realistic optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At this range it is definitely problematic that the GFS which usually has one of the most expansive precip fields has nothing north of DC for 2 straight runs Unfortunately, I pretty much feel the exact same way. I went through the 6z and 12z panel for panel at pretty much all levels and couldn't find much in 12z to think that the precip "could, should, or might" put us in the game. I do agree with weatherfella. There is almost always a band on the nw fringe that surprises but I'm used to seing it over hgr or westminster and not charlottesville or harrisonburg. There's still the proverbial "time to shift" but thinking we're going to get back into the .50 stripe is prob wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mdweatherbuff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just asking here. Looking at the NWS moisture radar screen and wouldn't that large moisture feed from the eastern pacific ( South west of Baha) push the energy more north? I know it is causing flooding and all in the Southeast, but seems to me that amount of moisture feed would spill a little more north.. Just asking here. I don't think we are done with the northern extent of the moisture field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ive been conversing with stu ostro and others on twitter back and forth and he posted this.. we've talked about it this week but it is a really convoluted setup http://yfrog.com/z/h8qgznp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just remember how warm it is today for those who are accumulation hungry. You know how that can get especially for the lower elevations. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ive been conversing with stu ostro and others on twitter back and forth and he posted this.. we've talked about it this week but it is a really convoluted setup http://yfrog.com/z/h8qgznp Yeah we had the same disco up in the New England forum as well. Earlier GFS runs grabbed two of those nrn stream s/w's if you recall, but it really had to take the perfect set of circumstances working in perfect harmony to bring this up the coast. When you look at the big picture, it's just not a pretty 500mb pattern across NAMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just remember how warm it is today for those who are accumulation hungry. You know how that can get especially for the lower elevations. Thanks. That doesn't mean much if you're snowing at 1/2SM or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That doesn't mean much if you're snowing at 1/2SM or less. 12/9/01. 70 the day before, easy to accumulate 4-6 the next day imby. Ground temps are oversold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just remember how warm it is today for those who are accumulation hungry. You know how that can get especially for the lower elevations. Thanks. It's been proven time and time again that the previous days temps mean nothing if it's coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12/9/01. 70 the day before, easy to accumulate 4-6 the next day imby. Ground temps are oversold. But the point is it won't be coming down that hard. Certainly not IMBY and probably not that hard in DC to overcome the warm surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z ukie at hour 36, is similar to the NAM with the precip shield. Can't see hour 42 precip until ewall updates, but it's definitely not in the gfs camp. 36 has a 1000 L right near HSE... perhaps slightly offshore... 42 is a 995 L heading east about 150 miles off HSE... so it wouldnt be much... but any precip is good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12/9/01. 70 the day before, easy to accumulate 4-6 the next day imby. Ground temps are oversold. they're both oversold and undersold. a day where it's 55-60 prior to a snowstorm not that common around here at least.. only 8 instances of 50+ followed by 2" snow next day at DC in Feb. no doubt rates are the key especially on grass in marginal situations.. tho as is now we might be hard pressed to get those rates for long if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 But the point is it won't be coming down that hard. Certainly not IMBY and probably not that hard in DC to overcome the warm surfaces. Ok, if you are specifying a certain area, then it's a little different. Because parts of VA that are 60 today, will be a winter wonderland tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ive been conversing with stu ostro and others on twitter back and forth and he posted this.. we've talked about it this week but it is a really convoluted setup http://yfrog.com/z/h8qgznp Yeah we had the same disco up in the New England forum as well. Earlier GFS runs grabbed two of those nrn stream s/w's if you recall, but it really had to take the perfect set of circumstances working in perfect harmony to bring this up the coast. When you look at the big picture, it's just not a pretty 500mb pattern across NAMR. Highly convoluted, that is why it was relatively easy to dismiss the SNE/NYC group when the GFS was aligning the stars and phasing distinct and numerous very short wavelength disturbances at day 6. Northern stream has been junk all winter, there was no reason to believe it would be anything else. Various doom/gloom scenario weather hype artists were hoping for a lottery win. It is weather these days...various individuals have found hyping the worst case and low probability solution can garner them fame as long as that 1/20 occurrence is a big and memorable one (see Paul Douglas for a more local variety). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok, if you are specifying a certain area, then it's a little different. Because parts of VA that are 60 today, will be a winter wonderland tomorrow. agreed, C and S VA should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 THere will be no winter wonderland for some parts till the sun is already down. That's when the best accumulations will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So for .2ish QPF of supposed snow at DCA... we have RGEM/NAM/UKIE vs. GFS/GGEM/prob 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So for .2ish QPF of supposed snow at DCA... we have RGEM/NAM/UKIE vs. GFS/GGEM/prob 12z EURO Euro has not wavered from this prog and the other models are now joining in. Amazing whipping it gave the rest of the guidance seemingly with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro looks to be right around .10 maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I agree. The Euro locked in early and has stood its ground. Really an amazing performance by that model if the track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro looks to be right around .10 maybe a little more. Psu says .17 at DCA and .43 EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought it took a step backwards from 6z and definitely drier for dc vs the nam which has 0.25 exactly for DCA. Either way, neither quite does the trick but perhaps a 30 mile bump can occur? I would not be surprised.. Regardless of what happens here in the Mid Atlantic --- I sincerely hope you guys up in the SNE/NE get hit with a 12 foot blizzard before this winter is done. You guys NEED snow, you have economies that depend on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's a wrap, folks. Had fun tracking it with you guys at least. Checked the long range GFS and we got nothing to look forward to. I'm heading out to enjoy the nice weather today. Good luck to the Huff's down in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 JMA went north with the precip from last nights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's a wrap, folks. Had fun tracking it with you guys at least. Checked the long range GFS and we got nothing to look forward to. I'm heading out to enjoy the nice weather today. Good luck to the Huff's down in SW VA Come on Down, Randy-- price of admission-- small flask of Makers Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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