CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 For dc I'd probably use 0-2 or t to 2" for now in case we somehow got into a heavier band. There isn't a whole lot of wiggle room but with such a tight gradient, it wouldn't take much to get into the .2 to .4 range for QPF. Yeah agreed. Such a sharp gradient in this. I left the door open in case this decided to move slightly to the north. I'll have another update later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ACFD FIREMAN, Your right, the storm is about the confluence of the north supressing the system and less southern stream amplification. What I meant was going with the odds of snowstorm in northern Va with the +AO & +NAO. It is rare to have a snowstorm with the 2 positive teleconnections. Yes we can get snow, but like I said after a more southern track I am not buying it. I hope I am wrong and I have been before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah agreed. Such a sharp gradient in this. I left the door open in case this decided to move slightly to the north. I'll have another update later on. Which was my point early this morning when commenting on the surface features being a tad N of progged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Justin Berk is noting "Further North" and "Stronger" - We will see if that matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Whoa, NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM at 24 hrs looks like it will be a little wetter than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM looks damn good IMO..I'm at 33 and it is a bit farther north than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah NAM looks a little better at 500mb, so it should be wetter than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Moved north a bit...good for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The thing that sucks, is that this storm decided to takes its time. Now you are going to have to wetbulb like crazy with strong rates, otherwise 1SM -SN won't do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Came north a bit and is colder vs 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Lets go NAM! Looks better and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Still sort of whiffs to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Still sort of whiffs to the south. lol up there it's a whiff, but down here it's a hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Still sort of whiffs to the south. Last night it gave DC zero. That was a whiff to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol up there it's a whiff, but down here it's a hit! Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 33-36 hrs away and the trend back north has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought this would look better based on hr 30, but it scoots the heaviest band south of the city. I don't know how correct that will be, but you need that heavier stuff or it probably won't accumuate much of you have 0.15" QPF in 3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not really. no, I think you misunderstood a little bit of snow down here is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like DC could get 2-4"/3-6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought this would look better based on hr 30, but it scoots the heaviest band south of the city. I don't know how correct that will be, but you need that heavier stuff or it probably won't accumuate much of you have 0.15" QPF in 3 hrs. Doesn't look like a whiff to me, but you're probably right on the rest. We'll need some heavy stuff to get good accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Time for you to go back to new England thread There is no snow up there. Hopefully, now that it is into it's semi-useful range, the Model that Shall not be Named will get more people in on some action. It also looks like it snows for a bit longer than earlier runs showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 After 39 an area wide .2-.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Doesn't look like a whiff to me, but you're probably right on the rest. We'll need some heavy stuff to get good accums. I'm guessing 0.25-0.3" or so QPF at a glance, but if you space that over 6 hrs...I don't think it would accumulate much. I thought at first this would be better than what is depicted, so not sure about the actual prog..but that's what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Even S. NJ under a little flurry action at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm guessing 0.25-0.3" or so QPF at a glance, but if you space that over 6 hrs...I don't think it would accumulate much. I thought at first this would be better than what is depicted, so not sure about the actual prog..but that's what it has. I agree. I thought we'd get into the heavier stuff as well going by the 30 hour panel. All in all, it is wetter, but you're right about the QPF over a longer stretch of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Surface low depiction for 4 pm sunday is def a bit more north off obx 12z vs 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F18%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm guessing 0.25-0.3" or so QPF at a glance, but if you space that over 6 hrs...I don't think it would accumulate much. I thought at first this would be better than what is depicted, so not sure about the actual prog..but that's what it has. gotta like the trend though...2 runs in a row it's come slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is like a whooped dog. It's going to be shy now until daddy Euro moves more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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