CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd hold off on getting too happy. Maybe it happens, but don't set yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Its funny most Locals had 3-6 for most of RIC.......not sure what they have been looking at.......but amazingly this a.m they are going 1-3, I just looked over the 6z suite and dont really see any reason to think that there was any data that should have cut down those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So I guess today is the day we get back in the game. well, at least "sucked back" in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd hold off on getting too happy. Maybe it happens, but don't set yourself up for disappointment. Are you new here? . Disappointment is weenie 101. This board wouldn't exist if people didn't get invested in every little thing that put them back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd hold off on getting too happy. Maybe it happens, but don't set yourself up for disappointment. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 My guess is that now we can eliminate any south trends in the future for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd hold off on getting too happy. Maybe it happens, but don't set yourself up for disappointment. I judt heard on wbal radio 1090 in balto that tasselmeyer is going for 1-3 in of snow for tomorrow. Where is he getting that forecast from?? Is any model showing this, except the models mitchnick is showing on here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Another 48 hr map from the RGEM since it is full of love WTF kind of Portuguese model is this ****? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I judt heard on wbal radio 1090 in balto that tasselmeyer is going for 1-3 in of snow for tomorrow. Where is he getting that forecast from?? Is any model showing this, except the models mitchnick is showing on here??? Maybe he's hugging the RGEM. We'll see what happens today. I have low expectations north of DC right now. And in DC for that matter. Although, confidence in DC is not high at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe he's hugging the RGEM. We'll see what happens today. I have low expectations north of DC right now. And in DC for that matter. Although, confidence in DC is not high at the moment. DC needs to gt into a period of heavier snow to get 1-3 so I think it a long shot. my guess would still be in the 0-2 range or 0-1 range with the latter being more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DC needs to gt into a period of heavier snow to get 1-3 so I think it a long shot. my guess would still be in the 0-2 range or 0-1 range with the latter being more likely. I was thinking around an inch for now. I figure if they get 2-3", at least I mentioned an inch. If it's just flurries..well no harm done either. I sort of left some room in case this does try to wobble north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 current water vapor loop...i guess we're close to nowcast (or nearcast) time...no matter what happens, looks like a healthy little storm... http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just so you folks know, the surface low is inland and much slower that previously progged down here. We are seeing a delay as much as 6-12 hours with the U/L as well. What is the relevance here of slowed progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 current water vapor loop...i guess we're close to nowcast (or nearcast) time...no matter what happens, looks like a healthy little storm... http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html yea, last night I was wondering where the storm was, but things must have materialized nicely over last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yea, last night I was wondering where the storm was, but things must have materialized nicely over last several hours. Looking at the SPC analysis and what models had for 12z, I really do not see much if any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looking at the SPC analysis and what models had for 12z, I really do not see much if any difference. i guess that's a good thing since 12z was a little wetter further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 11z RUC sim radar looks nice: Full loop: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2012021811&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i guess that's a good thing since 12z was a little wetter further north. Well I mean what the 00z models had forecasted for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well I mean what the 00z models had forecasted for 12z. oh. i got hyped for a minute there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm not really sure how reliable these predictions are, but this is interesting as well: Full loop: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/hover.php?fld=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 from that pic, dc gets about 6 inches and frederick, md gets 6 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 from that pic, dc gets about 6 inches and frederick, md gets 6 flakes. it's a one hour snow forecast go to the link he posted and drag your cursor over the hours to get a better idea of the total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 it's a one hour snow forecast go to the link he posted and drag your cursor over the hours to get a better idea of the total i knew that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Updated outlook for Silver Spring and points north: cool and cloudy to start the week and then a gradual warmup with midweek rain showers. For Sunday/Monday, probability of snow virga: 85%. The upcoming week should average slightly warmer than average. Probability of white lawns Sunday/Monday north of Silver Spring: 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok guys, let get back on track and move the banter over to the banter thread. This is for model discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GDO815, The +NAO , without blocking the storm moves fast. I know there's time for things to change and going on feeling is not reliable. I have seen this before and usually it stays to the south just like most models are showing. I live in Prince William county and that puts me on the fringes. I hope we do fine but I am less excited after the seeing a more southern path now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Snow or bust. Right now i am not the happiest person ever. Looks like the storm is staying well south of our hearts. I said earlier, what do you get with +AO & +NAO during a snow threat in northern Va? Usually nothing and that is what it is looking like now. Still time to change but I am not buying it. This has nothing to do with =AO or +NAO! It has to do with confluence to our north supressing the system. Along with less southern stream amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What is the relevance here of slowed progression? Ya, what are the implications of a slowed progress? I assume that will allow for colder air to filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I was thinking around an inch for now. I figure if they get 2-3", at least I mentioned an inch. If it's just flurries..well no harm done either. I sort of left some room in case this does try to wobble north. For dc I'd probably use 0-2 or t to 2" for now in case we somehow got into a heavier band. There isn't a whole lot of wiggle room but with such a tight gradient, it wouldn't take much to get into the .2 to .4 range for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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