winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anybody else up? Cause uh..I'm seeing things on the model that shall not be named... At 500, it is either going negative tilt or a bit of vorticity holds back in the lower Mid-west, just enough to allow the precip. to pivot north for us... all of the little short waves at 500 are more amplified...allowing the trough to deepen and the flow along the East coast is...backing a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Vort Max on the backend of the trough is a lot stronger. The Northerward jump is very very clear by 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 definitely further north. wow, big jump here. comparing the 39 and 42 hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well it definitely moved north. It's noteworthy because it follows the 0z slight move to the north. it looks like the euro....a bit wetter of course...probably 0.3 - 0.4 for DC?....I know I have bashed the NAM a lot...are we now in a range where it has decent skill?....inside of 48?...I assume it is always too wet no matter what the range, but maybe it is in a more skillful range for discerning other important features edit...0.25" ish for DC.... very similar to euro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anything more? My Ambien is kicking in, but now I am fighting it off to see whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 PA is dry as could be...so far, this is a six hour burp, nothing more. DC gets into the 1" 3" but N MD, mby...flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 it looks like the euro....a bit wetter of course...probably 0.3 - 0.4 for DC?....I know I have bashed the NAM a lot...are we now in a range where it has decent skill?....inside of 48?...I assume it is always too wet no matter what the range, but maybe it is in a more skillful range for discerning other important features edit...0.25" ish for DC.... very similar to euro now Where is .5. South of Fredericksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5speed6 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anything more? My Ambien is kicking in, but now I am fighting it off to see whats up. It's OTS after 48, so there's really nothing more to see. Might as well sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Where is .5. South of Fredericksburg? .5 line runs from charlottesville over to fredericksburg and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I hope today is the day we keep seeing the precip field inch north.....I imagine at this range big changes/swings in the major features are less and less likely, but what is nice is we no longer need that to get into better QPF....getting to 0.5" is probably too ambitious, but we wouldnt need some massive change in the nature of the storm to do it like it looked earlier today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 .5 line runs from charlottesville over to fredericksburg and points south. Nice. If the GFS shows some movement, people are going to be pumped in the morning after last night's disaster. They will come back on board with more realistic hopes, and be in a better mood, to see if we can all root for a 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch storm -- which is what only 3 days ago we all said we were rallying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Oh my word... GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Oh my word... GFS!! Why can't I see it anywhere? What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think he's probably talking about how it didn't run. It appears there is some sort of problem with it because it normally begins to run around 440am and its already 525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think he's probably talking about how it didn't run. It appears there is some sort of problem with it because it normally begins to run around 440am and its already 525 Yeah, bc I can't get it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i can't access it from anywhere either. i thought i was going zulu crazy for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS is MIA.... ... I was wondering what was going on as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well since the nrn edge is so sharp, even a 20 mile jog may be the difference between a sloppy 0.5" and 3-4". It's within that 48 hr window where we can see wobbles north. Almost like a nowcast issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just so you folks know, the surface low is inland and much slower that previously progged down here. We are seeing a delay as much as 6-12 hours with the U/L as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Even though it's the ensembles, the EC ensembles did bump NW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 COM issues preventing 06z GFS from running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 COM issues preventing 06z GFS from running. I was wondering what was up with this, good to know the reason behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nam did go north and is close to putting dc back in the game GFS still a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 COM issues preventing 06z GFS from running. Can you say what are com issues?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Can you say what are com issues?? I guess some communication issues, but it appears to be fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 6Z RGEM and it ain't over; check out the 7H RH map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here's 36 hr RGEM from 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Another 48 hr map from the RGEM since it is full of love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So I guess today is the day we get back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Today is the day for the high res models to shine..rgem and nam now that it made the cave to the euro correction. I expect a good 12z nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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