TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 game set match nam caves completely this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 it's amazing how poor this run is... wow. radar has not looked good very few surface obs reporting rain in states no bordering the Gulf/Mex...I pointed that out about an hour ago on to winter of 12/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Laymans term's we are getting nada. Literally just about to comment about how the energy is being transferred to that low off the coast... Not a good sign yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's having convective feedback issues again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. Thanks Jason, i figured when you started posting here a few days ago that was a great sign. Oh well it was not meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. How do the temps look to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works. nice overlay work- I cannot comment on the virtues of such an effort- but in terms of map-making, it's a good job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nam is a huge kick in the balls. Hardly any precip in the cold sector. Only good thing about the nam is it's been so inconsistent it may be the last model you want to look at for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Call me crazy but radar trends do not look good even for C VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 How do the temps look to the south? Warm... particularly the further south you go. Sent from my Galaxy Nexus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 radar has not looked good very few surface obs reporting rain in states no bordering the Gulf/Mex...I pointed that out about an hour ago on to winter of 12/13 yea i've been watching the radar lately and it seems a bit dry where we want it to not be dry. http://radar.weather...tlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 game set match nam caves completely this run Caves to what? No model was this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wow. NAM is astonishingly horrid. The stench of bust is strong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Caves to what? No model was this bad. The snow Nazi. AKA me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. Look at your sim radar at 27. Your precip is about gone, and your ground temps are still above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. if the nam is right, richmond itself has boundary layer issues ... no colder than 35 during heavy precip. TEMPS 2 M (F) 51 44 37 41 36 35 850 MB © 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 700 MB © -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -8 500 MB © -18 -17 -16 -17 -20 -21 1000-500 THCK 548 545 545 543 540 536 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 36 32 27 30 32 30 850 MB DP©/RH -6/48 -6/56 -7/60 -4/89 -6/95 -9/85 700 MB DP©/RH -10/71 -12/65 -7/86 -4/99 -5/99 -8/96 500 MB DP©/RH -32/29 -20/80 -20/72 -30/31 -22/83 -23/84 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.64 0.69 0.56 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WOW lol at least SE VA still gets some snow according to the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This model sucks. This is probably a fluke run too. Even dtk can't defend this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What a terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM should be getting in range sometime tomorrow...I expect it to have a good handle on the storm by the 0z run tomorrow night or the 6z run on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT must be so pissed right now. The model is atrocious. I will never take anything it says seriously again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 When in doubt blame the model. WHat a frustrating system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What a terrible model Yah it is bad. Granted the setup was sensitive to proper initialization of moist convection, but still, atrocious. That said, this setup is terribly difficult for any model including the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Everyone gets BUST with this system except the NC mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's having convective feedback issues again... Blame it on the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I feel for the forecasters during storms like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Even with the storm on the doorstep the NAM still acts like a fish on a boat deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM should be getting in range sometime tomorrow...I expect it to have a good handle on the storm by the 0z run tomorrow night or the 6z run on Monday I have actually seen it where it was wrong until the bitter end (i.e., even as the storm was ongoing it just had no clue what was going on). Groundshog day Feb 1 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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