Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nam is a huge kick in the balls. Hardly any precip in the cold sector. Only good thing about the nam is it's been so inconsistent it may be the last model you want to look at for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Call me crazy but radar trends do not look good even for C VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 How do the temps look to the south? Warm... particularly the further south you go. Sent from my Galaxy Nexus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 radar has not looked good very few surface obs reporting rain in states no bordering the Gulf/Mex...I pointed that out about an hour ago on to winter of 12/13 yea i've been watching the radar lately and it seems a bit dry where we want it to not be dry. http://radar.weather...tlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 game set match nam caves completely this run Caves to what? No model was this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wow. NAM is astonishingly horrid. The stench of bust is strong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Caves to what? No model was this bad. The snow Nazi. AKA me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. Look at your sim radar at 27. Your precip is about gone, and your ground temps are still above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And hr 27 saves the day. Thanks NAM. if the nam is right, richmond itself has boundary layer issues ... no colder than 35 during heavy precip. TEMPS 2 M (F) 51 44 37 41 36 35 850 MB © 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 700 MB © -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -8 500 MB © -18 -17 -16 -17 -20 -21 1000-500 THCK 548 545 545 543 540 536 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 36 32 27 30 32 30 850 MB DP©/RH -6/48 -6/56 -7/60 -4/89 -6/95 -9/85 700 MB DP©/RH -10/71 -12/65 -7/86 -4/99 -5/99 -8/96 500 MB DP©/RH -32/29 -20/80 -20/72 -30/31 -22/83 -23/84 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.64 0.69 0.56 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WOW lol at least SE VA still gets some snow according to the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This model sucks. This is probably a fluke run too. Even dtk can't defend this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What a terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT must be so pissed right now. The model is atrocious. I will never take anything it says seriously again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 When in doubt blame the model. WHat a frustrating system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What a terrible model Yah it is bad. Granted the setup was sensitive to proper initialization of moist convection, but still, atrocious. That said, this setup is terribly difficult for any model including the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Everyone gets BUST with this system except the NC mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's having convective feedback issues again... Blame it on the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I feel for the forecasters during storms like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Even with the storm on the doorstep the NAM still acts like a fish on a boat deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM should be getting in range sometime tomorrow...I expect it to have a good handle on the storm by the 0z run tomorrow night or the 6z run on Monday I have actually seen it where it was wrong until the bitter end (i.e., even as the storm was ongoing it just had no clue what was going on). Groundshog day Feb 1 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Look at your sim radar at 27. Your precip is about gone, and your ground temps are still above freezing. if the nam is right, richmond itself has boundary layer issues ... no colder than 35 during heavy precip. TEMPS 2 M (F) 51 44 37 41 36 35 850 MB © 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 700 MB © -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -8 500 MB © -18 -17 -16 -17 -20 -21 1000-500 THCK 548 545 545 543 540 536 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 36 32 27 30 32 30 850 MB DP©/RH -6/48 -6/56 -7/60 -4/89 -6/95 -9/85 700 MB DP©/RH -10/71 -12/65 -7/86 -4/99 -5/99 -8/96 500 MB DP©/RH -32/29 -20/80 -20/72 -30/31 -22/83 -23/84 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.64 0.69 0.56 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.37 This is true. I love me some 850 maps but I knew from the beginning that BL issues would be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It may be a terrible model, but you gotta admit that outside of the convection blob rolling through Alabama and Georgia, due east at that, this thing looks pretty anemic to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NAM changes it's mind and says that nyn stream troff that suddenly appeared in western PA out of nowhere on the 18z run isn't going to happen. I feel a bit stupid for not noticing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I feel for the forecasters during storms like this Don't feel for DT. He is too full of himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Caves to what? No model was this bad. If you can't tell what models it caved to i dont know what to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Don't feel for DT. He is too full of himself. He really is. I dont know the details on why he left, but oh my god he is self obsessed. Can tell just by reading his final call discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have actually seen it where it was wrong until the bitter end (i.e., even as the storm was ongoing it just had no clue what was going on). Groundshog day Feb 1 2011. One of the models was completely blowing the 1/26 storm last year up north as it was happening, it may have been the NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I dont take it seriously in the winter and never have......I am told it is a good model for severe, squall lines, etc....Maybe we should just table it in the winter....I'm not sure what value it has?....weather is complex...If it is only capable of handling easy systems, we probably shouldnt pay it much attention....no doubt this was a tough one for all the models though It has winter utility, believe it or not. It has quite a bit of skill (for whatever reason) in situations where systems go negative tilt or feature very deep upper level PV's undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. Slow moving and deep systems are undoubtedly its forte. NAM also likes trop folds, and it has shown skill in rapidly bombing Miller B type Nor'easters with trop folds. What is worth mentioning here, however, is we are dealing with a "new" NAM since it was completely overhauled this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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