yoda Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 A little more than 12z had isn't it Yoda? I think? Can't tell for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For those in the northern Mid-Atlantic (i.e. not getting snow out of this storm) next weekend looks interesting... I think this weekend did us in. If the Euro doesn't advertise it consistently, there won't be an audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For those in the northern Mid-Atlantic (i.e. not getting snow out of this storm) next weekend looks interesting... PS Banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works. Not technically. That is specifically for tropical forecasting also.. Just an FYI. Wouldn't use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not technically. That is specifically for tropical forecasting also.. Just an FYI. Wouldn't use it Well not just for tropical, the upper air pattern applies to low pressure systems of varying pressures and that map is dependent upon the pressure of a surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well not just for tropical, the upper air pattern applies to low pressure systems of varying pressures and that map is dependent upon the pressure of a surface low. Name me one time a respected member of this board (meteorologist or otherwise) has pulled up those steering maps outside of tropical season? Hell, now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever seen many even use it in the tropic season. It is one of those weenie products people look at in a wishcast situation most of the time. I'm sure some will agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Name me one time a respected member of this board (meteorologist or otherwise) has pulled up those steering maps outside of tropical season? Hell, now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever seen many even use it in the tropic season. It is one of those weenie products people look at in a wishcast situation most of the time. I'm sure some will agree. I can't say I disagree with that, just was noting its not 100% tropical, most of the time if you do see it thats what its for, but steering currents are steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well not just for tropical, the upper air pattern applies to low pressure systems of varying pressures and that map is dependent upon the pressure of a surface low. Yes. Low pressure centers maybe - but not their associated precipitation. I've never seen it used to predict precip placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Anyways.. Here's DT's take what its worth.. someone is going to post it might as well be me http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/02/last-call-discussion-re-feb-19-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have a hard time looking at this water vapor loop and not seeing snow up into southern PA at least. I am no expert but it appears to me that the battleground is gonna line up just over the MD/PA border? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 SREF's a tick south FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well... out to 6 hrs... at the risk of being overboard.. the vort is already a little further south than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NAM is not very different at the surface through nine.. weaker though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have a hard time looking at this water vapor loop and not seeing snow up into southern PA at least. I am no expert but it appears to me that the battleground is gonna line up just over the MD/PA border? http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Looks to be about at the yellow line, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks to be about at the yellow line, but I could be wrong. Nah I think it's about the mason Dixon if we were judging simply via WV because that will pull back north a bit too I believe. WV is decent looking though atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NAM is not very different at the surface through nine.. weaker though It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone. Laymans term's we are getting nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone. Literally just about to comment about how the energy is being transferred to that low off the coast... Not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Anyways.. Here's DT's take what its worth.. someone is going to post it might as well be me http://www.wxrisk.co...re-feb-19-2012/ DT is talking about how great he is for calling this storm before anyone else...he better hope it doesn't bust or his facebook is gonna be full of hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 looks like a fail for even central VA thru 18 hrs, at least compared to recent model progs oh the humanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 looks like a fail for even central VA thru 18 hrs, at least compared to recent model progs oh the humanity it's amazing how poor this run is... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone. I'm comparing 500 mb features (NAM) from the 02/18 run at 06Z to the run coming out now and the vorticity is stronger and a tiny bit more south in the current run. So why are the surface features weaker? Is this due to convection effects? Also, it seems that the small vorticity max moving from Georgia to SC is moving faster and getting ahead of the vorticity just at its 10 o'clock position. My guess? Any phasing is just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 game set match nam caves completely this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 it's amazing how poor this run is... wow. radar has not looked good very few surface obs reporting rain in states no bordering the Gulf/Mex...I pointed that out about an hour ago on to winter of 12/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Laymans term's we are getting nada. Literally just about to comment about how the energy is being transferred to that low off the coast... Not a good sign yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's having convective feedback issues again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. Thanks Jason, i figured when you started posting here a few days ago that was a great sign. Oh well it was not meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 yeah this run will end poorly. Prolly similar to the GFS, but it might be drier farther S too. How do the temps look to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works. nice overlay work- I cannot comment on the virtues of such an effort- but in terms of map-making, it's a good job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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