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Weekend "Storm" Discussion Part III, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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How do you think your getting mostly cloudy skies, yet your south of dc, unless your being sarcastic????

I was being sarcastic.

Given this is a la nina year, and going with persistence (given what we have seen thus far this season) I'm looking forward to a slushy coating to a slushy half inch of cement. That seems reasonable.

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I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works.

post-5940-0-11264900-1329613594.png

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I tried to roughly (as good as I quickly do with different map projections) overlay the radar onto the steering currents at 500-850mb. Is this saying the moisture near Dallas,TX will move roughly NE until Kentucky and then head E? I apologize if this is completely incorrect, as I am still trying to learn how all this works.

post-5940-0-11264900-1329613594.png

Not technically. That is specifically for tropical forecasting also.. Just an FYI. Wouldn't use it

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Well not just for tropical, the upper air pattern applies to low pressure systems of varying pressures and that map is dependent upon the pressure of a surface low.

Name me one time a respected member of this board (meteorologist or otherwise) has pulled up those steering maps outside of tropical season? Hell, now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever seen many even use it in the tropic season. It is one of those weenie products people look at in a wishcast situation most of the time. I'm sure some will agree.

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Name me one time a respected member of this board (meteorologist or otherwise) has pulled up those steering maps outside of tropical season? Hell, now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever seen many even use it in the tropic season. It is one of those weenie products people look at in a wishcast situation most of the time. I'm sure some will agree.

I can't say I disagree with that, just was noting its not 100% tropical, most of the time if you do see it thats what its for, but steering currents are steering currents.

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Well not just for tropical, the upper air pattern applies to low pressure systems of varying pressures and that map is dependent upon the pressure of a surface low.

Yes. Low pressure centers maybe - but not their associated precipitation. I've never seen it used to predict precip placement.

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NAM is not very different at the surface through nine.. weaker though

It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone.

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It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone.

Laymans term's we are getting nada.

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It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone.

Literally just about to comment about how the energy is being transferred to that low off the coast... Not a good sign

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It is much weaker, and looking at obs suggests it is prolly initializing closer to reality than the supercharged 18Z. Convective activity is undoubtedly taking a large toll with a second closed surface low near the Florida Panhandle. Latent energy is being distributed too broadly and far away from the center of the upper cyclone.

I'm comparing 500 mb features (NAM) from the 02/18 run at 06Z to the run coming out now and the vorticity is stronger and a tiny

bit more south in the current run.

So why are the surface features weaker? Is this due to convection effects?

Also, it seems that the small vorticity max moving from Georgia to SC is moving faster and getting ahead of the vorticity just at its 10 o'clock

position. My guess? Any phasing is just not there.

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