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February 20-21 Potential Storm


wisconsinwx

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Impressive.

I'm not too pumped about this storm (or for that matter, any storm this year)...its just flipping back from all the previous winters with huge monster storms. This area, on average, just doesn't see foot+ snowfalls every year. Its pretty rare. I would be interested in seeing how common 6+ inch snowfalls are...I would guess we must avg about 1 per year...

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GFS and GGEM look interesting.

Maybe 1-3" Tuesday morning before changing over to a cold rain...

It's still crap when all said and done. In any other winter season, this would be a decent winter storm for a lot of us.

I think we should just refer to everything in this winter as crap. If there's a blizzard in the extended range, it will be crap. Don't count on anything except nothing!

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Just looking at the 0z NAM and its soundings, looks like a decent shot at a several hour period of fairly moderate snow across eastern IA/northern IL during the early morning hours tuesday. Wet bulb temps are still below 0 as precip moves in and with the good UVV's, could even cool the column a bit more to keep snow going till around 15zish. Evaporative cooling should also play a role at onset to favor all snow at the start. Right now I'd like cycloneville for a quick inch or two.

After 15z or so the BL quickly warms and any leftover precip would switch over to rain.

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Given that the sfc low passes so far to the NW and the sfc winds are brisk from SW, I was surprised to see 0z NAM soundings supportive of snow for Tuesday. Even the RGEM ptype plots at least indicate a slushy mix.

I guess it's keep an eye on worthy. Climo with these type of storms though doesn't have me too impressed.

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FWIW the RPM model had 1-2" west of I-355 in northern IL, more as you go west.

I caught the whole weather segment and Tom's cake at the end! That was cool!

Looked like I-88/I-290 was the dividing line between rain and snow.

NMM High resolution model is really generous with the moisture in the early morning.

hrw-nmm_eus_027_sim_radar.gif

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Precip already approaching the western WI border. HRRR starts things off by 9 pm. Precip type is somewhat uncertain since it's 40 °F as of 5 pm.

http://rapidrefresh....omain=t2&wjet=1

Had a wind off the lake today, so it did not get to 40° here. Temperature at 34° now.

Thanks to the cold morning in the teens, the snow should stick tonight, without much difficulty.

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