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2/19/12 OBS take what you can get


Midlo Snow Maker

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Hey guys, I'm new on here. I live just south of Ski Liberty near the PA/MD line. This thing will impact the northerm areas more than what the models have depicted. The warm ground however will kill many for chances for good totals, but maybe a surprising 1-3 inches in areas that was just calling for a dusting.

I am looking forward to my 1-3 hours of heavy clouds

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Im going to say just maybe, but keeping a close eye on the returns in the ULL and it seems pretty stong. If we start to see radar returns showing up in extreme sountheastern Ohio than I think we will see some snow. Not much but some.

I'm just an experienced observer who has lived here and observed weather my whole life. We will see. Good luck! I now have to spend some time with the family.

i think the orientation of the precip can be misleading sometimes with these upper level lows. it may look like it's coming north, but they tend to be clustered around the low which still looks like it's headed mostly due east, not to mention some of these bands may get mangled as they cross the apps. i really don't expect anything significant (1-3") to make it up to DC.

would be funny, though, if after all these ups and downs, the coastal forms a little further north and we end up with a couple inches.

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You know this, but colder air came in from the N and E-- Not shocked those places started as rain. Model data was pretty clear MAINLY snow for ROA , LYH and CHO.

We just need heavier stuff to pull temps to near freezing.

I know, I was just mentioning that it seemed like some people were expecting it start out as all snow when it was more progged to start out as light rain before the flip and the heavier precip would enter the area. Good Luck to you Huff.

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Fwiw, weather.com futurecast has that swath of moisture in the Tennessee Valley heading towards the metro.

you know, the more i nowcast, the more i do think it will be a slighlty closer call than most of us might think. sure would be nice to see a period of snow here after all this. we deserve it dammit.

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you know, the more i nowcast, the more i do think it will be a slighlty closer call than most of us might think. sure would be nice to see a period of snow here after all this. we deserve it dammit.

Id be happy with flurries. I live in columbia md. But guess that ain't happenin!! This winter can't end soon enough!!

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R- in Wise and Roanoke, VA and throughout most of SW virginia

Repots of snow in Marion, Blacksbug, Lynchburg, but rain reports further west. Sort of a cad type look to the reports. Wise has rain and 34 degrees at 2600 ft elevation. Might be a good sign for southern Va if they can get the precip. Radar looks good so far but will it hold?

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Repots of snow in Marion, Blacksbug, Lynchburg, but rain reports further west. Sort of a cad type look to the reports. Wise has rain and 34 degrees at 2600 ft elevation. Might be a good sign for southern Va if they can get the precip. Radar looks good so far but will it hold?

Im not counting on much east of US 15/360 like a south Boston/Farmville to Hadensville, VA line, east of there could be tough, west of there though it is game on. You got that whole plateau with elevation averaging 2200+ ft in elevation. Wise is tucked away to far west still they will flip soon enough though. Would pick Wytheville to be in a good spot for this storm if I were to track/chase it.

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Did anyone else see Tony Pann's post? From 2 hours ago.

At this time last weekend, we flew in the face of some of the traditional computer guidance to say that the storm would be here at this time...and it is. So...let’s keep that theme going. In spite of computer model guidance to the contrary...I am going to stay with my forecast of the storm moving north...it will only take a shift of 50 to 100 miles off the forecasted track to get Baltimore into the snow. I will go with that, and say 2” to 4” for the Baltimore Metro area, around 1" near the PA line, and 3” to 6” for parts of Southern MD and the Lower Eastern Shore. If you can’t take the heat...get out of the kitchen! :)

:pimp:

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Im not counting on much east of US 15/360 like a south Boston/Farmville to Hadensville, VA line, east of there could be tough, west of there though it is game on. You got that whole plateau with elevation averaging 2200+ ft in elevation. Wise is tucked away to far west still they will flip soon enough though. Would pick Wytheville to be in a good spot for this storm if I were to track/chase it.

Lived in wise co for 45 years. Can't tell you the numer of disappointments caused by that warm wedge that happens west of the highest mountains. They will switch as those upper temps crash. Saw where Jackson ky is snow. The higher elevations of southern and western va should get hit hard. Would love to see a report from mount rogers.

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southern vort is definitely further north than modeled and still going northeast... we'll see how much it matters

16gmm10.png

2432dg9.png

Definitely interesting to see how far south meso analysis places the SURFACE low, however, almost all of the snow seems to be related to the upper level low and s/w to its north, not sure the models are handling it well. I'm not trying to feed fodder to the weenies, but just noticing a couple small things this morning. I don't know how much any of this matters

xo2vkl.png

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