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2/19/12 OBS take what you can get


Midlo Snow Maker

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Bittersweet (non)-event for me in Columbia, Md. Whatever happens, I am to spend Mon-Fri at FMY Beach, Florida with expected high temps between 75 and the low 80s..

I guess I don't want to have my Mon morning drive to and flight from BWI to be in uncertain conditions.

....... Or do I !!??

Temp has steadied off Sunday morning at current low for morning of 32.9 degrees. So the ground temps would need a lot of work anyway unless there was to be a period of hvy snow, the probability of which is slim to none ATTM.

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I actully think the storm looks pretty good..if u look at the water vapor loop its starting to wrap up ... Prob now is getting rid of the dry air and how fast the temps drop in the Richmond area..

meh, in the end, it looks like the s/w in the central plains and the southern s/w ended up fighting each other instead of one enhancing the other leaving most with a bust

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I enjoy watching the 24 hour radar loop... It provides the highest quantity of "Weenie hallucination jiuce" on the market. For instance, looking at Eldorado's 24 hour loop from ending at 7:35 AM this morning, it looks to me that a band of snowfall is setting up right over central maryland with the radar filling in nicly to the south of us.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/usradar.html

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NAM verification from 0Z

BWI predicted temp was 28.5 at 7AM; actual 35

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt

RIC predicted temp was 36.5 at 7AM; actual temp 42

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kric.txt

ROA predicted temp was 34 at 7AM; actual temp 43

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kroa.txt

7AM temps

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=at&expanddiv=hide_bar

that's pathetic for a 12 hour forecast from a supposed short range model

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I realize this msybe incorrect thing to do, but radar seems to have the echoes moving NE overspreading central md very shortly. The NE movement may indicate a longer period of snowfall than models were indicating. Anyone notice this??

Someone did already. Yay for central MD if anything hits the ground.

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I realize this msybe incorrect thing to do, but radar seems to have the echoes moving NE overspreading central md very shortly. The NE movement may indicate a longer period of snowfall than models were indicating. Anyone notice this??

There is no period of snowfall expected anymore much too far north of ric. :lol:

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There is no period of snowfall expected anymore much too far north of ric. :lol:

That was my.point,!!! There is a lot of moisture to my south that does NOT seem to be moving out to sea. Just my observation. Im very inexperienced.oisture seem to be north of modeling. I maybe wrong. However until it starts to snow, it means nothing!!

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That was my.point,!!! There is a lot of moisture to my south that does NOT seem to be moving out to sea. Just my observation. Im very inexperienced.oisture seem to be north of modeling. I maybe wrong. However until it starts to snow, it means nothing!!

That blob is going to fall apart as the energy transfers to the coast, and the coastal isn't going to get its act together until it's too late.

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That was my.point,!!! There is a lot of moisture to my south that does NOT seem to be moving out to sea. Just my observation. Im very inexperienced.oisture seem to be north of modeling. I maybe wrong. However until it starts to snow, it means nothing!!

You said it may snow longer than expected and I said there is no snow expected.

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Hey guys, I'm new on here. I live just south of Ski Liberty near the PA/MD line. This thing will impact the northerm areas more than what the models have depicted. The warm ground however will kill many for chances for good totals, but maybe a surprising 1-3 inches in areas that was just calling for a dusting.

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Hey guys, I'm new on here. I live just south of Ski Liberty near the PA/MD line. This thing will impact the northerm areas more than what the models have depicted. The warm ground however will kill many for chances for good totals, but maybe a surprising 1-3 inches in areas that was just calling for a dusting.

why????

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R- in Wise and Roanoke, VA and throughout most of SW virginia

You know this, but colder air came in from the N and E-- Not shocked those places started as rain. Model data was pretty clear MAINLY snow for ROA , LYH and CHO.

We just need heavier stuff to pull temps to near freezing.

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Im going to say just maybe, but keeping a close eye on the returns in the ULL and it seems pretty stong. If we start to see radar returns showing up in extreme sountheastern Ohio than I think we will see some snow. Not much but some.

I'm just an experienced observer who has lived here and observed weather my whole life. We will see. Good luck! I now have to spend some time with the family.

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