Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 it's definitely not a situation to give up hope completely. the gfs is "loaded" to drop more than it does as well.. probably not a lot, but if anything is up i'd wonder about the evolution of precip east of the mtns a bit. im not 100% sure i buy it will go from ne to due east. i think we probably can end up in the .2-.4" range at DCA.. would lean low given where we are guidance wise. i just don't have very much confidence that amounts to a lot of accumulation. this storm seems like it will be very dependent on any banding and/or elevation to get totals. I think anyone 0.20" + has a chance to get into +SN......locating banding is really tough of course too....we know from experience that we can be at 0.3" with a sharp cutoff here in DC and yet some megaband ends up setting up between Hagerstown and Marcus's house...as much as we love the euro, it is still a global model and it isnt going to get precip contours precise and especially so when the gradient is so sick...so anything from 0.05" and 0.4" wouldnt shock me as that is such a small shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think anyone 0.20" + has a chance to get into +SN......locating banding is really tough of course too....we know from experience that we can be at 0.3" with a sharp cutoff here in DC and yet some megaband ends up setting up between Hagerstown and Marcus's house...as much as we love the euro, it is still a global model and it isnt going to get precip contours precise and especially so when the gradient is so sick...so anything from 0.05" and 0.4" wouldnt shock me as that is such a small shift Yeah hard to say. I thin we will need sustained here which I don't think we will get. WinterWxLuvr will be excited when he wakes up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So it sounds like the precipoitation shield has expanded to look more like we think it should yet the surface system has changed very little in it's track. It still is exiting the southeast coast too far south and not turning up the coast to do much for DC proper. We need some heavy banding to get the temps to cooperate and let the snow accumulate and for that we need more than just the precipitation shield to expand. Let's hope the models currently aren't right and the track will shift further north over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 euro out to 24.. too early to bit hard on any trends but overall precip mass is south of 0z at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 at 36 it's back pretty similar to 0z.. track is almost identical. a few blips on countours n and south. dc into precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 looks like the northern edge came south slightly but most of the qpf contours are almost exactly the same as 0z. .1"+ line to north of dc still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 at 36 it's back pretty similar to 0z.. track is almost identical. a few blips on countours n and south. dc into precip. looking at txt output it looks like DC area is fringed... spits out .02 and .07 liquid at IAD through 6z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 looking at txt output it looks like DC area is fringed... spits out .02 and .07 liquid at IAD through 6z Monday is that total? the .1 and .25" contours look basically identical to 0z on maps. .50 shifted slightly south as did northern extent. could you give totals for dca, ric, cho, and roa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Totals IAD: .09 DCA: .17 CHO: .46 EZF: .43 RIC: .94 (surface temps around 33 the whole time, congrats) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ROA: .81 surface temps around 30 the whole time. looks like the higher elevations in that area are probably the big winners with around a foot somewhere above 2000 feet in SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 thx psu.. so now all eyes turn to the upcoming RIC bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Totals IAD: .09 DCA: .17 CHO: .46 EZF: .43 RIC: .94 (surface temps around 33 the whole time, congrats) Wow at the diff between EZF and DCA... but isn't that slightly more than 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow at the diff between EZF and DCA... but isn't that slightly more than 00z? any changes other than those noted earlier (and even those) are very marginal.. not even worth analyzing as .01"-.1" differences are well within the margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 thx psu.. so now all eyes turn to the upcoming RIC bust. I think Richmond might do ok... 4" is probably reasonable. This is going to be a nice event in SW VA and good for them, its sucked there for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 any changes other than those noted earlier (and even those) are very marginal.. not even worth analyzing as .01"-.1" differences are well within the margin of error. Every hundreth counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 so how's the storm looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 so how's the storm looking? In NC great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 In NC great. Try again...sfc temps are horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 we have to wait for verification, but I think the case can be made, and the reason I made this thread, that utilizing the operational Euro/GFS in tandem and no other guidance at all would have yielded a more consistent and smoother forecasting flow....no doubt all the models had trouble with this storm....but using these 2 as checks on each other would have resulted in a better, more cautious product.....I am glad I made this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 we have to wait for verification, but I think the case can be made, and the reason I made this thread, that utilizing the operational Euro/GFS in tandem and no other guidance at all would have yielded a more consistent and smoother forecasting flow....no doubt all the models had trouble with this storm....but using these 2 as checks on each other would have resulted in a better, more cautious product.....I am glad I made this thread.... At this point we are praying the Euro is right, i think it is the wettest of all the guidance. You look pretty smart now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 At this point we are praying the Euro is right, i think it is the wettest of all the guidance. You look pretty smart now. nobody is smart after this event.....but using the Euro and GFS in tandem would have yielded the best forecasting product around here inside of 72 hours or so....But that is what s most important anyway..I dont think it matters if they are good at 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 i use euro/gfs as lik 75% of my model watching.. blend with some sref on precip as it gets near. nam is good in the spring/summer... not so much with coastals etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 i should have held to my guns totally.. i have a weird tendancy to back off being anti snow about 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 nobody is smart after this event.....but using the Euro and GFS in tandem would have yielded the best forecasting product around here inside of 72 hours or so....But that is what s most important anyway..I dont think it matters if they are good at 5 days I think Jason's forecast from last night was pretty smart and that the CWG did pretty good in holding out from committing until it was expedient to put out a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 i should have held to my guns totally.. i have a weird tendancy to back off being anti snow about 48 hours out. It is the inner weenie in you coming out, none of us except Wes can control that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think Jason's forecast from last night was pretty smart and that the CWG did pretty good in holding out from committing until it was expedient to put out a forecast. Of course it hasn't verified yet so I shouldn't yet congratulate him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think Jason's forecast from last night was pretty smart and that the CWG did pretty good in holding out from committing until it was expedient to put out a forecast. you guys always do the best.....this one is probably a done deal....I wonder if we see any precip.....my guess is a period of light rain/snow that doesnt stick...maybe someone down in PW county gets a 1" on the lawn if they get in a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Of course it hasn't verified yet so I shouldn't yet congratulate him. You can congratulate him, i guarantee you this is not a Dewey situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think Jason's forecast from last night was pretty smart and that the CWG did pretty good in holding out from committing until it was expedient to put out a forecast. Jason might be about the best snow forecaster in the area at least totals/map wise. Consensus forecasting helps but he usually makes the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Of course it hasn't verified yet so I shouldn't yet congratulate him. it doesnt matter if it verifies....there was never any justification for being bullish in DC metro...the way to go was always to emphasize something small and minor and just allude to the possibility of something more.....I dont like mets who swing for the fences.....I think it is poor forecasting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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