WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 North trend begins at 6z 12z to 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 precip is north of 12z at 36 on the euro.. just getting into va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 definitely north of last run.. not sure it will make a giant difference in dc area but most contours to the south at least moderately shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 .05" line moved from south of dc by a bit to not terribly far from the md/pa border. .1" e/w through d.c. my geog is bad to the south but contours all shifted north a good 30-50 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 definitely north of last run.. not sure it will make a giant difference in dc area but most contours to the south at least moderately shifted north. pretty good shift....0.25" here?...I feel better now....we can get in decent precip with a 50 mi shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 .05" line moved from south of dc by a bit to not terribly far from the md/pa border. .1" e/w through d.c. my geog is bad to the south but contours all shifted north a good 30-50 miles? 75-100 mi shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So now euro is the most north model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 pretty good shift....0.25" here?...I feel better now....we can get in decent precip with a 50 mi shift it's a tight gradient but looks like .1" just north of us when blown up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, since we're at the bargaining stage, .25 will work. It won't take much for a bit more, so I guess we're all gonna hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 We still have 36 hours to get one more 100 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 it's a tight gradient but looks like .1" just north of us when blown up. 0.25 is like 10-15 mi south...this is a pretty big shift...not sure if this is still a larger adjustment or part of the standard late shift though I guess it is splitting hairs and doesnt matter...it shifted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 looking at the maps more closely it is a huge shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One more crazy NAM run/north shift in the morning and it will be like nothing changed this afternoon/tonight from where we were last night, especially considering the storm has slowed its onset since then. lol. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0.25 is like 10-15 mi south...this is a pretty big shift...not sure if this is still a larger adjustment or part of the standard late shift though I guess it is splitting hairs and doesnt matter...it shifted.... yeah but .5" is still a solid ways south. im not sure i'd necessarily expect it to keep shifting north nonstop but i think it's worth considering at least in the final 24 more than today. good if it comes late because maybe we can get it mainly after dark but tomorrow's toasty and mos numbers are quite high sunday now too even if you assume they're warm. i'd want at least .4" (~2") or so qpf to make it notable in the city at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 looking at the maps more closely it is a huge shift looks like a bigger shift in the south than the north tho the north gradient is tight so places went from nothing to .10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 One more crazy NAM run/north shift in the morning and it will be like nothing changed this afternoon/tonight from where we were last night, especially considering the storm has slowed its onset since then. lol. lol. no NAM mention here dude...take it to the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If it is a 75 to 100 mile shift, then yeah, that is pretty substantial, especially for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 looks like a bigger shift in the south than the north tho the north gradient is tight so places went from nothing to .10"+ the 0.25" contour at 12z bisected Kings Dominion.....It now bisects Springfield Mall....That is a huge shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If it is a 75 to 100 mile shift, then yeah, that is pretty substantial, especially for the Euro. it's decent but im not sure i'd characterize it as a 100 mile shift. the track is similar but a bit nw.. one of the main differences is the old qpf pattern sorta had a dip south east of the apps that i think is part of the pattern people said felt "unnatural" with the way the precip moves. that's more or less filled in and even bubbled north a bit. in many ways its more a re-orientation of the ccb type precip than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the 0.25" contour at 12z bisected Kings Dominion.....It now bisects Springfield Mall....That is a huge shift i dunno where those places are. as noted in prior track did not shift majorly. in a lot of ways this just looks like a more typical precip shield than prior runs. so.. im not sure the actual shift is as big as perceived even if this area does better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So except for today's 12Z run, the Euro's been steady at ~.15" for DC for the past day-and-a-half, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 that only really tells part of the story... but we can seesaw every run as needed i think my description is pretty accurate as to why if not as to how huge a shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 that only really tells part of the story... but we can seesaw every run as needed i think my description is pretty accurate as to why if not as to how huge a shift yes..it depends what you mean by shift....Part may be track...part may be precip field expands for whatever reason or something like that....whatever the case, the precip shield generally expanded 50-75 mi at least if not more.... At 12Z measurable precip just reached DC line....at 0z it is now north of Philly....that is a big shift...I am not trying to analyze it or say it is correct...But the model shifted in a significant fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yes..it depends what you mean by shift....Part may be track...part may be precip field expands for whatever reason or something like that....whatever the case, the precip shield generally expanded 50-75 mi at least if not more.... At 12Z measurable precip just reached DC line....at 0z it is now north of Philly....that is a big shift...I am not trying to analyze it or say it is correct...But the model shifted in a significant fashion i think as usual we're both arguing similar but from different angles. running them side by side 0z mainly looks like a more typical shield on the nw side of the low. i think there is a little less confluence as well which allows the low to tuck in a bit further nw. i think it's mainly within a margin of acceptable run to run tho. i didn't jump ship tonight.. i think cwg's first map might be too low.. but had no really compelling reason to say that. i did argue to only drop spi 1 rather than 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wunderground snow maps - 3 hr increments. If you guys don't want this in here feel free to move it to the other thread or banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 i think as usual we're both arguing similar but from different angles. running them side by side 0z mainly looks like a more typical shield on the nw side of the low. i think there is a little less confluence as well which allows the low to tuck in a bit further nw. i think it's mainly within a margin of acceptable run to run tho. i didn't jump ship tonight.. i think cwg's first map might be too low.. but had no really compelling reason to say that. i did argue to only drop spi 1 rather than 2. I dont have good upper level maps....the surface low maybe shifted 25-50 mi north tops....probably closer to 25-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 So except for today's 12Z run, the Euro's been steady at ~.15" for DC for the past day-and-a-half, right? I think...this run is interesting though....the difference between 0.25" and 0.75" is literally 75-100 mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I dont have good upper level maps....the surface low maybe shifted 25-50 mi north tops....probably closer to 25-35 it's definitely not a situation to give up hope completely. the gfs is "loaded" to drop more than it does as well.. probably not a lot, but if anything is up i'd wonder about the evolution of precip east of the mtns a bit. im not 100% sure i buy it will go from ne to due east. i think we probably can end up in the .2-.4" range at DCA.. would lean low given where we are guidance wise. i just don't have very much confidence that amounts to a lot of accumulation. this storm seems like it will be very dependent on any banding and/or elevation to get totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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