mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 lots of trolling...I'll have busted badly on a north shift....though maybe my 2-4" is still possible....I wont discuss the model we are not allowed to discuss in this thread per my rules, but maybe a 16 seed can beat a 1 has never happened in the history of mens NCAA .... but yes in the woman's tourny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 gtfo weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dayum. Optimism is shakey at best. When the storm appeared to be slowing down yesterday I started wondering when it was going to tip the scales against us. At first the northern vort was kinda scarey because it had potential to pull it all inland. Then it looked like a pretty perfect lineup with little chance of an inland rainer. Now the timing looks to squish the damn thing off the coast. Oh well, let's see what the nam says....(oops, sorry. can't mention the nam here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 lots of trolling...I'll have busted badly on a north shift....though maybe my 2-4" is still possible....I wont discuss the model we are not allowed to discuss in this thread per my rules, but maybe a 16 seed can beat a 1 It will probably be more like a 15 beating a 2, it has happened but most of the time when they are close to an upset they are tied in the last couple of minutes but lose at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 The north shift is kind of dependent on the southern stream picking itself up by the bootstraps....When the euro looked as well as it looked last night at 60 hrs and then still sh-it the bed I knew we were in trouble....there is no room for error with the euro solution...we need a robust negative tilt and then would still need some help via phasing....the "inevitable" jog north 50-100 miles will do nothing per the euro but get us into 1-2" range maybe....I was hoping the models would converge on a solution today that had heavy banding in the EZF - CHO area and then we might expect a subtle or not so subtle jog and expansion of the precip field...That is no longer the case...The euro would have to be hugely wrong in the 48-72 hour range which I highly doubt, but you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 It will probably be more like a 15 beating a 2, it has happened but most of the time when they are close to an upset they are tied in the last couple of minutes but lose at the end. we can still get a 2-3" storm, but the nice upside is much less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm just a lurker so what do I know, but I'm pretty sure people have been saying for years that the euro is a long range model and loses its accuracy at this range...this storm is going north at 0z. No way RIC gets more snow total than DCA this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm just a lurker so what do I know, but I'm pretty sure people have been saying for years that the euro is a long range model and loses its accuracy at this range...this storm is going north at 0z. No way RIC gets more snow total than DCA this year. The Euro is the most accurate model at all ranges, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro is the most accurate model at all ranges, I think. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The north shift is kind of dependent on the southern stream picking itself up by the bootstraps....When the euro looked as well as it looked last night at 60 hrs and then still sh-it the bed I knew we were in trouble....there is no room for error with the euro solution...we need a robust negative tilt and then would still need some help via phasing....the "inevitable" jog north 50-100 miles will do nothing per the euro but get us into 1-2" range maybe....I was hoping the models would converge on a solution today that had heavy banding in the EZF - CHO area and then we might expect a subtle or not so subtle jog and expansion of the precip field...That is no longer the case...The euro would have to be hugely wrong in the 48-72 hour range which I highly doubt, but you never know Probably 8/10 times the north trend would work for you guys. When you step back and look at everything, you can kind of see how this may not happen. The confluence sucks and can't lift out with continuous nrn stream bullsh*t moving southeast. Also, that trough in the west is not helping either. If the low can really deepen and the confluence weaken just a little bit, it would work out. I just don't have high hopes for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro is the most accurate model at all ranges, I think. But is that for complex weather events such as mid atlantic snowstorms or for general weather and temps? The latter could throw off accuracy numbers since the former is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 But is that for complex weather events such as mid atlantic snowstorms or for general weather and temps? The latter could throw off accuracy numbers since the former is rare. Wishcasting will get you nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just needed to take a little break and deep breath in my gloriously NAM free thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just needed to take a little break and deep breath in my gloriously REDACTED free thread shouldn't it be more like this...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 shouldn't it be more like this...? ha....maybe it will score a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ha....maybe it will score a coup You better hope not, or JI will incessantly troll you until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 OP GFS says Euro is a little too dry and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 OP GFS says Euro is a little too dry and south. I'm not on board until the euro is , but I think a 2-4" snow isnt a bad expectation....even up by you though you may be closer to the cutoff....getting in good banding is pretty important imo and that is really hard to nail down....1.5 mi viz -SN at 35 degrees isn't going to accumulate well.... This is my probability guess for within 25 miles of DC proper as of right now 10%: complete whiff, no precip or at best T of flurries/drizzle 25%: Mixed event with some steadier snow toward the end, but some BL problems early and in lighter precip, ~1" with localized 2" readings, mostly grass, but maybe side streets 40%: Some rain/mix, but mostly snow event with a general 2-4" depending on banding. Good stickage after dark with some period of SN/+SN 20%: Mostly snow event with extended period of +SN with localized 1-2"/hr in heavier bands...4-7" event for most, with some localized 8"+ readings most likely in MOCO/Loudoun 5%: Heavy snowstorm, 8-12" area wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm not on board until the euro is , but I think a 2-4" snow isnt a bad expectation....even up by you though you may be closer to the cutoff....getting in good banding is pretty important imo and that is really hard to nail down....1.5 mi viz -SN at 35 degrees isn't going to accumulate well.... This is my probability guess for within 25 miles of DC proper as of right now 10%: complete whiff, no precip or at best T of flurries/drizzle 25%: Mixed event with some steadier snow toward the end, but some BL problems early and in lighter precip, ~1" with localized 2" readings, mostly grass, but maybe side streets 40%: Some rain/mix, but mostly snow event with a general 2-4" depending on banding. Good stickage after dark with some period of SN/+SN 20%: Mostly snow event with extended period of +SN with localized 1-2"/hr in heavier bands...4-7" event for most, with some localized 8"+ readings most likely in MOCO/Loudoun 5%: Heavy snowstorm, 8-12" area wide... Sometimes 5% wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 shouldn't it be more like this...? Or, why not take the Harry Potter approach... I just needed to take a little break and deep breath in my gloriously [THE MODEL WHICH MUST NOT BE NAMED] free thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm not on board until the euro is , but I think a 2-4" snow isnt a bad expectation....even up by you though you may be closer to the cutoff....getting in good banding is pretty important imo and that is really hard to nail down....1.5 mi viz -SN at 35 degrees isn't going to accumulate well.... This is my probability guess for within 25 miles of DC proper as of right now 50%: complete whiff, no precip or at best T of flurries/drizzle 30%: Mixed event with some steadier snow toward the end, but some BL problems early and in lighter precip, ~1" with localized 2" readings, mostly grass, but maybe side streets 15%: Some rain/mix, but mostly snow event with a general 2-4" depending on banding. Good stickage after dark with some period of SN/+SN 5%: Mostly snow event with extended period of +SN with localized 1-2"/hr in heavier bands...4-7" event for most, with some localized 8"+ readings most likely in MOCO/Loudoun 0%: Heavy snowstorm, 8-12" area wide... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 fixed North trend begins at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 fixed what a waste of a flucking week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 North trend begins at 6z ha...maybe.....I still think there will be one, but the idea was to be 50-100 mi from the core deform so it would inch up our way..this consensus solution gives us no chance...at 1:15 last night the storm was over....not sure why I ever got swayed by the NAM/GFS today at all....a jog north does nothing now...I guess 1" is still in play....whatever....this winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ha...maybe.....I still think there will be one, but the idea was to be 50-100 mi from the core deform so it would inch up our way..this consensus solution gives us no chance...at 1:15 last night the storm was over....not sure why I ever got swayed by the NAM/GFS today at all....a jog north does nothing now...I guess 1" is still in play....whatever....this winter sucks i think it will try to creep north tomorrow too but it is probably too far gone at this point to be anything really notable as you allude to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 its funny how how most believe dont believe the NAM until right now when it shows no snow. Like it became a great model in a 6 hour span Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 its funny how how most believe dont believe the NAM until right now when it shows no snow. Like it became a great model in a 6 hour span It's over, champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 its funny how how most believe dont believe the NAM until right now when it shows no snow. Like it became a great model in a 6 hour span Probably not conpletely right but it usually catches on eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 its funny how how most believe dont believe the NAM until right now when it shows no snow. Like it became a great model in a 6 hour span the euro won last night like it always does....it's over dude, other than maybe a sloppy grassy inch for you...maybe someone to the southwst part of DC metro sees 2" .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the euro won last night like it always does....it's over dude, other than maybe a sloppy grassy inch for you...maybe someone to the southwst part of DC metro sees 2" .... I dont understand why we cant get snow here.... we are too south for a miller b too north for a miller A how can a sub 1000 low in the Tenn valley not give us a flake.... We should of been the one town on the east coast to cash in from this storm and we failed miserably again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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