Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 next Total whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not really happy on the 500mb look, but I'll let it role out another frame or two. I I'm with you, I suspect this will disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 might be time to get a meh ready at 54.. storm definitely south of 0z still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we all knew the Euro wouldn't save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Matt, plot our destination. We pull the trigger after 0z GFS. Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yikes. pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 dc just into measurable (sub .05") at 60 hrs with low off nc coast.. was .10"+ last run same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The southern stream energy looked a little less impressive, and the flow is too westerly up in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I mean, there really is no way around it...nobody can or should deny the Euro. GFS/Euro are basically in the same camp. There's room for some north adjustment, but the trend is smash and dash. I do think we'll do a little better on the northern fringe than what's shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's not just what is going on in New England. The trough out west looked a bit faster, and the overall general pattern just isn't great looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I mean, there really is no way around it...nobody can or should deny the Euro. GFS/Euro are basically in the same camp. There's room for some north adjustment, but the trend is smash and dash. I do think we'll do a little better on the northern fringe than what's shown. Sounds like the Euro is far enough away that even an adjustment north would just give DC some heavier flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Matt, plot our destination. We pull the trigger after 0z GFS. Richmond? There is no destination remotely close...worst run ever...I guess I'll have free time on Sunday to do something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i doubt this run gives anyone that much snow east of the apps.. storm slower to get together and temps marginal south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is no destination remotely close...worst run ever...I guess I'll have free time on Sunday to do something else Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I mean, there really is no way around it...nobody can or should deny the Euro. GFS/Euro are basically in the same camp. There's room for some north adjustment, but the trend is smash and dash. I do think we'll do a little better on the northern fringe than what's shown. GFS looks like February 1899 compared to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is far enough away that even an adjustment north would just give DC some heavier flurries. tight gradient still but you gotta go to far s va to get to .5"+ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS looks like February 1899 compared to the Euro I guess I meant as far as south/suppressed wise. Look for our next threat/tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 even though i've been about as pessimistic as it comes on this one not sure why people are giving up just yet. there's still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I meant as far as south/suppressed wise. Look for our next threat/tease. They're not in the same camp..GFS is in Camp Springs....Euro is in Camp Lejeune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 even though i've been about as pessimistic as it comes on this one not sure why people are giving up just yet. there's still time. I would put the over under in DC for this storm at 2" and i will take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They're not in the same camp..GFS is in Camp Springs....Euro is in Camp Lejeune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 even though i've been about as pessimistic as it comes on this one not sure why people are giving up just yet. there's still time. last night and today's euro runs are extremely discouraging....not giving up, but my optimism of a shift north is tempered by the fact that a 50-75 mile shift north would still be an awful whiff....euro has to be majorly wrong for us to get more than 1-2" tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They're not in the same camp..GFS is in Camp Springs....Euro is in Camp Lejeune I'm still not buying this suppressed though. Wait till 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 last night and today's euro runs are extremely discouraging....not giving up, but my optimism of a shift north is tempered by the fact that a 50-75 mile shift north would still be an awful whiff....euro has to be majorly wrong for us to get more than 1-2" tops yeah i agree. i kinda wish i didnt say 1-2" was a lock now. but on the bright side if it misses south there can be some trolling done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They're not in the same camp..GFS is in Camp Springs....Euro is in Camp Lejeune In all fairness, the storm is running about 6-12 hours slower than progged down here. Take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah i agree. i kinda wish i didnt say 1-2" was a lock now. but on the bright side if it misses south there can be some trolling done. lots of trolling...I'll have busted badly on a north shift....though maybe my 2-4" is still possible....I wont discuss the model we are not allowed to discuss in this thread per my rules, but maybe a 16 seed can beat a 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the perfect time to pull for another January '00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the perfect time to pull for another January '00. Or January 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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