snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hmm....seems to be trending cooler?...looks like mostly snow in my area. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html I can only hope. And SSC..EC has 2" for the snow event 2-3 days ago...lol There's a separate thread for tomorrow's storm. I mentioned that while the models look encouraging, SW sfc winds and a low going by to our NW doesn't bode well for much. Maybe a slushy coating before it turns over to rain. And the 2" for Saturday is actually pretty good for Pearson. I had 2.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Another morning low in the teens. 17°. Sounds like an inch of snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 There's a separate thread for tomorrow's storm. I mentioned that while the models look encouraging, SW sfc winds and a low going by to our NW doesn't bode well for much. Maybe a slushy coating before it turns over to rain. And the 2" for Saturday is actually pretty good for Pearson. I had 2.3". Upper air temps at every level I believe are supportive for Wintry precip. 850's remain below freezing and the 500mb thickness is quite cold as well. I think sfc temps maybe around 0C to 2C tomorrow. Atleast they didnt bs for Saturday. Lets hope they can fix the 2.2mm of rain and Trace of snow, that way we'll be around 5" for February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z Euro......986mb, wow. Decent severe wx across the South? Decent cold shot (late feb. standards) following this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z Euro......986mb, wow. Decent severe wx across the South? Decent cold shot (late feb. standards) following this. Sexy Sexy...Now if this can just lock itself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z Euro......986mb, wow. Decent severe wx across the South? Decent cold shot (late feb. standards) following this. BL Temps FTL... although better than the previous run I suppose. I should add it's over .7" of QPF with <0C 850s and 2M below 1C at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The amount of cold in Canada is pretty crazy. Not sure what climo is for late Feb... The cold will get here just in time for SPRING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 BL Temps FTL... although better than the previous run I suppose. I should add it's over .7" of QPF with <0C 850s and 2M below 1C at YYZ. Thats sick...6" perhaps thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 BL Temps FTL... although better than the previous run I suppose. I should add it's over .7" of QPF with <0C 850s and 2M below 1C at YYZ. wundermap clownage is pretty sexy up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Thats sick...6" perhaps thanks man Looks like a forgot to carry a one, so it's actually .83".. max 2M was .7C. .49" in a 6hr period too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 There's a separate thread for tomorrow's storm. I mentioned that while the models look encouraging, SW sfc winds and a low going by to our NW doesn't bode well for much. Maybe a slushy coating before it turns over to rain. And the 2" for Saturday is actually pretty good for Pearson. I had 2.3". Hey Canuck I'd like to inform you that the buttonville station has 10" apparently for this month thus far where as YYZ has barely cracked 4" lol....and some how they got just over 4" on Saturday. Send dem a couple of more complaint emails. BTW do you know where they exactly measure at YYZ? thanks! http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=4841&Month=2&Day=19&Year=2012&timeframe=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z Euro has a widespread 5-10 inch snow early next week for SD, NE, n IA, MN, WI. The storm doesn't come out in one huge piece, but there is a nice overrunning event followed by a main system. The gradient is pretty big. Southeast IA and northern IL get a quick shot of overrunning snow with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s, then the warm front surges north and the temp surges into the 50s and even 60s. I'd take a system like that... it would at least be interesting. Hopefully there won't be any further northward shifts. A little more south shift would get more of us into better snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Looks like a forgot to carry a one, so it's actually .83".. max 2M was .7C. .49" in a 6hr period too. Lets hope it stays consistent. 6-10"....is a blizzard in this Winter lol thanks man BTW how warm do 850's get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hey Canuck I'd like to inform you that the buttonville station has 10" apparently for this month thus far where as YYZ has barely cracked 4" lol....and some how they got just over 4" on Saturday. Send dem a couple of more complaint emails. BTW do you know where they exactly measure at YYZ? thanks! http://www.climate.w...012&timeframe=2 Nope. Don't know. Based on how they measured certain localized LES events, I have a hunch it's in the SW quadrant of the airport property (close to Highway 401 and Dixie Road). I still haven't heard back wrt to the email I sent on Friday, although today's a holiday so that my explain the delay. Although, it's not a federal holiday so I suppose they're working today. Might mean they are just ignoring me again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lets hope it stays consistent. 6-10"....is a blizzard in this Winter lol thanks man BTW how warm do 850's get? -1C at the start, -6C at the finish. Sub 980mb at 102 pretty close to KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lets hope it stays consistent. 6-10"....is a blizzard in this Winter lol thanks man BTW how warm do 850's get? I wouldn't get your hopes up. This is a thread the needle event to the max. The storm tracks 1 mm west of the 12z EURO track and your tears will flow like the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Nope. Don't know. Based on how they measured certain localized LES events, I have a hunch it's in the SW quadrant of the airport property (close to Highway 401 and Dixie Road). I still haven't heard back wrt to the email I sent on Friday, although today's a holiday so that my explain the delay. Although, it's not a federal holiday so I suppose they're working today. Might mean they are just ignoring me again.... Maybe they measure nearby where airplanes may land thus blowing the snow around? Either way EC is bsing for YYZ totals this month. Send dem more complaint emails lol, cause thats plain bs. Rain when its -7C LOL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It's the gradients at D7 on the 12z Euro that get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 -1C at the start, -6C at the finish. Sub 980mb at 102 pretty close to KBUF So I would assume 7-10:1, i guess. Not bad. Thanks man! And 980mb is fairly strong..strongest this Winter, I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe they measure nearby where airplanes may land thus blowing the snow around? Either way EC is bsing for YYZ totals this month. Send dem more complaint emails lol, cause thats plain bs. Rain when its -7C LOL.... Multiple emails from the same person would make me seem like a nut worthy of ignoring. I think it'd be better if concerned citizens (like yourself and some of the other Toronto area posters on this board) sent emails and/or called EC to make sure they're on top of this. I do think that once the data undergoes quality control, that error will be corrected. That process can take up to 6 months though. In the mean time, I've just plugged in 2.2cm into my own spreadsheet and I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I wouldn't get your hopes up. This is a thread the needle event to the max. The storm tracks 1 mm west of the 12z EURO track and your tears will flow like the rain. I agree with this. You have the GFS with a positive tilt garbage storm where the northern stream comes in too fast, or the GEM that doesn't really do much until it's too late. The ECM was pretty darn close to turning negative too early. Although the theme this year has been positive tilt garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I wouldn't get your hopes up. This is a thread the needle event to the max. The storm tracks 1 mm west of the 12z EURO track and your tears will flow like the rain. Inner weenie-ness haha. But your right, we need more consistent runs. Patience at its finest (since 08 ) ) LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Multiple emails from the same person would make me seem like a nut worthy of ignoring. I think it'd be better if concerned citizens (like yourself and some of the other Toronto area posters on this board) sent emails and/or called EC to make sure they're on top of this. I do think that once the data undergoes quality control, that error will be corrected. That process can take up to 6 months though. In the mean time, I've just plugged in 2.2cm into my own spreadsheet and I'll leave it at that. 2.2cm is still quite low comapred to other stations across the GTA. Despite all the complaints for the Mar 08 blizzard, they still didnt fix the data to atleast a reasonable number. I'll send them a email later this week I guess. There does seem to be a discrepancy between YYZ and buttonville though, with every storm, lol. Anyways, lets hope we can get something decent before the month is over. Sun angle is getting stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The cold will get here just in time for SPRING. Most of us thought the same thing in Fall. It will get here by winter. Worked out so good. FWIW add a few degrees on whatever the fantasy shows. With lack of good snow pack you can count on some moderation. This even it makes it south of the Candian boarder given how strong features like the PAC jet are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It's a very, very, very unlikely solution, but me gusta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Just in time for spring...first time i've been in the blue this winter? its been awhile: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 18z-nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It's a very, very, very unlikely solution, but me gusta: Hmmm...good to see the EURO ensembles on board. 18z GFS has trended considerably more progressive with this storm than several of its previous runs. I guess I can't completely discount it but the NCEP models have not exactly been stellar lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Just in time for spring...first time i've been in the blue this winter? its been awhile: good agreement on a sustained -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It is what basically every storm has done all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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