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February 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

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At least for many of us in the future we'll be able to say at least it isn't as bad as it was back in the winter of 11/12. In my 35 yrs I've seen some crappy winters, but this one takes the cake HANDS DOWN. It'd be one thing if it were just here, but there really hasn't been much of interest when it comes to tracking things all season. Might be going out on a limb here, but I'd guess this is the longest stretch of benign weather that I've ever seen in any season of any year.

I would think, though, that the whole misery loves company mantra is what is helping the board from meltdown. Though Im not as big into the comparing whats going on elsewhere to whats happening imby as some others, it seems like for a lot here it would be ten times worse for the screwed areas if other areas were getting decent snow.

Took a look at Detroits biggest snowstorm in each winter since 1880, or 132 years. Biggest storm this season has been 4.8", and 28 times the biggest storm was less than 4.8" (and 6 other times it was a match at 4.8"). So its entirely possible and not unheard of to have this remain our biggest storm. However, in most of those other 34 years, some other places in the midwest or northeast had widespread major snowstorms, and that hasnt happened this year. I will say be saying it til the calendar says April, that a major snowstorm WILL hit this region in March. Worrying about whos in the bullseye, warm sector, or too far north (suppression) are gripes that were plentiful in past years....we may yet see one of those this year :)

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While this week locally looks to be a week of shortwave after shortwave, some dropping rain, some snow (which wont last long, further increasing our season total where its like "wtf THAT much has already fallen this winter?!")...but thereafter, the GFS ensembles remain very stormy. Of course everythings all over the place, but its definitely a good sign.

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The past few runs of the GFS sure want to funnel in some chilly 850s. It might be enough to get the lake belts active again. High possibility that any cold shots still continue to the progressive transient trend. But the end of Feb might have just enough chilly air to thread the needle for at least a few of us.

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Its painful to remember what was going on last year at this exact time. After seeing our 16-inch snowpack vanish the past week with winters first real big thaw, we had a forecast of 1-3" of snow followed by ice for tomorrow. Ended up with the most vivid thundersnow Ive ever seen and over 10 inches of snow. Why couldnt we have just a PIECE of that lol.

FEB 6, 2011

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Then after ma nature took it all away, showing us what grass looked like again.....we got it right back....

FEB 20/21, 2011

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the severe wx crew will enjoy the ecmwf.

A setup like that would be potentially ominous. One thing to watch for will be if there actually is a lead wave into the Lakes around day 7. That could be the sacrificial lamb and help to prime the pump moisture wise for whatever follows.

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A setup like that would be potentially ominous. One thing to watch for will be if there actually is a lead wave into the Lakes around day 7. That could be the sacrificial lamb and help to prime the pump moisture wise for whatever follows.

Yeah that return flow behind that 1st system is great, huge bermuda high and moisture flow all the way from the Caribbean.

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Euro has been fairly consistent, although I would agree for the GFS. What's good to see is that both means have the broad, amplifying Alaskan ridge allowing the trough to dig east of it into the Western/Central CONUS, which would be favorable for storm systems at some period if not the one that we are looking at right now.

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