michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 At least for many of us in the future we'll be able to say at least it isn't as bad as it was back in the winter of 11/12. In my 35 yrs I've seen some crappy winters, but this one takes the cake HANDS DOWN. It'd be one thing if it were just here, but there really hasn't been much of interest when it comes to tracking things all season. Might be going out on a limb here, but I'd guess this is the longest stretch of benign weather that I've ever seen in any season of any year. I would think, though, that the whole misery loves company mantra is what is helping the board from meltdown. Though Im not as big into the comparing whats going on elsewhere to whats happening imby as some others, it seems like for a lot here it would be ten times worse for the screwed areas if other areas were getting decent snow. Took a look at Detroits biggest snowstorm in each winter since 1880, or 132 years. Biggest storm this season has been 4.8", and 28 times the biggest storm was less than 4.8" (and 6 other times it was a match at 4.8"). So its entirely possible and not unheard of to have this remain our biggest storm. However, in most of those other 34 years, some other places in the midwest or northeast had widespread major snowstorms, and that hasnt happened this year. I will say be saying it til the calendar says April, that a major snowstorm WILL hit this region in March. Worrying about whos in the bullseye, warm sector, or too far north (suppression) are gripes that were plentiful in past years....we may yet see one of those this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in. They like to do server work when our region has a major storm. So I say go ahead, amwx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS is fairly snowy for the upcoming week, well over half a foot projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 While this week locally looks to be a week of shortwave after shortwave, some dropping rain, some snow (which wont last long, further increasing our season total where its like "wtf THAT much has already fallen this winter?!")...but thereafter, the GFS ensembles remain very stormy. Of course everythings all over the place, but its definitely a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well guess what Europe is warming up quickly, you know what that means? THE U/S is about to get hit HARD! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The past few runs of the GFS sure want to funnel in some chilly 850s. It might be enough to get the lake belts active again. High possibility that any cold shots still continue to the progressive transient trend. But the end of Feb might have just enough chilly air to thread the needle for at least a few of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Nice...18z gfs shows -12F on March 5th... I think it has gotten down to about 0° here in early March - that I can remember. Found in my records: -9° on 03/04/02! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Its painful to remember what was going on last year at this exact time. After seeing our 16-inch snowpack vanish the past week with winters first real big thaw, we had a forecast of 1-3" of snow followed by ice for tomorrow. Ended up with the most vivid thundersnow Ive ever seen and over 10 inches of snow. Why couldnt we have just a PIECE of that lol. FEB 6, 2011 Then after ma nature took it all away, showing us what grass looked like again.....we got it right back.... FEB 20/21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS is digging something big on the West Coast at 156 hrs, although it remains broad and less amplified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That first Feb 20/21 pic is one of my faves from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS is digging something big on the West Coast at 156 hrs... I see that energy diving down through the Sierra's and into the SW. Maybe another storm after the first one for the Midwest next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That first Feb 20/21 pic is one of my faves from you Thanks Mine too, the visib was like that for hours too. Just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 The ole 90 mb gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS shows a nice blast of snow late next weekend... something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The ole 90 mb gradient Would be a hell of a wind storm for us here in the Pac NW, or at least looking at the 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Sunday, February 19th: Hi: 40F Lo: 19F Overall Sky Conditions: Clear Max Wind Gust: 12MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 the severe wx crew will enjoy the 0z ecmwf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 the severe wx crew will enjoy the ecmwf. A setup like that would be potentially ominous. One thing to watch for will be if there actually is a lead wave into the Lakes around day 7. That could be the sacrificial lamb and help to prime the pump moisture wise for whatever follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 the severe wx crew will enjoy the 0z ecmwf. Certainly does look favorable a couple of times through out the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 A setup like that would be potentially ominous. One thing to watch for will be if there actually is a lead wave into the Lakes around day 7. That could be the sacrificial lamb and help to prime the pump moisture wise for whatever follows. Yeah that return flow behind that 1st system is great, huge bermuda high and moisture flow all the way from the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah that return flow behind that 1st system is great, huge bermuda high and moisture flow all the way from the Caribbean. Meanwhile that GGEM I posted has troughing in the Lakes/OV at the same time. Still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 the severe wx crew will enjoy the 0z ecmwf. Not surprised considering the 8-10 day mean, GFS pretty impressive as well, but the Euro is just nasty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Models are flip flopping way to much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has been fairly consistent, although I would agree for the GFS. What's good to see is that both means have the broad, amplifying Alaskan ridge allowing the trough to dig east of it into the Western/Central CONUS, which would be favorable for storm systems at some period if not the one that we are looking at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Dead calm and ultra clear morning. Top shelf for Feb standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The amount of cold in Canada is pretty crazy. Not sure what climo is for late Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Might get 2" overnight/tomorrow morning from the system pushing east through the plains now. It'll kick off at least another 2 weeks of winter with plenty of snow opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Looking forward to some winter weather. This spring like weather is making my wallet quiver. This winter is passing by with limited snow on the horizon. I hope the next cold forecasted next weekend and beyond can salvage something out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Looks like the models (0z ECMWF, 12z GFS) have trended towards bring out that large W US trough in pieces early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hmm....seems to be trending cooler?...looks like mostly snow in my area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I can only hope. And SSC..EC has 2" for the snow event 2-3 days ago...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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