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February 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

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Yeah, we need one big piece ejecting out. Sad, I am hoping for a huge torch and severe weather. It just sounds exciting.

The good thing is, is that the majority of models/ensembles continue to show the signal of the amplification of the western ridge and then the large trough digging to the east of it, details on how it ejects won't be known for awhile yet.

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I think what makes this winter season even crappier is that we have had so many little systems that look alright even in the medium range and then one day they're "supposed to hit" the midwest they turn to CRAP. Next week was looking good for snow in Michigan...now the models seem to headed towards more CRAP. Argh. This winter makes me hate winter.

The thing that makes it seem worse is that this winter is just the opposite of last winter. Those little systems turned out alright last year. It seemed all we had to do was sneeze and it snowed. This year, the pattern is completely different, with the pac jet dominating. I'm hanging on for the next 3-4 weeks hoping someone in the Midwest can see a really nice storm, but after that, bring on the severe and warmth!

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If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in.

Have to disagree. Lots-o-shortwaves per the models. None in particular look like a major storm, but I could see a few spots picking up 1-3" with each of them. We've had way more boring stretches of weather so far.

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If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in.

Have to disagree. Lots-o-shortwaves per the models. None in particular look like a major storm, but I could see a few spots picking up 1-3" with each of them. We've had way more boring stretches of weather so far.

I agree with SSC here.

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We might be saying that about 12-13 if it ends up being neutral. :devilsmiley:

Multi-year Nina events like 75-76, 00-01 or even 1908-09 were very legit but years like 56-57 were crap. A neutral Winter next year cant be any more worse than this year......but like you said it would still be horrid. Another moderate Nina next year or a weak Nino.....no moderate-strong Nino.....or neutral IMO.

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For all the storm talk late last week and today, especially in subforums to our east, I do sit here with a bit of a salacious grin on my face knowing that my 2.3" might end up being one of the highest recorded total of any member of this board during this period (sans roardog).

Something satisfying of not being the butt of mother nature's joke for once.

misery does enjoy company, I have to admit. At least we knew 3 days earlier that the gfs runs of an amped further north storm had turned to crap, the folks in the MA were led down the path of hope right up til the very end. That really sux when that happens.

besides, I think my head would have exploded if DC was able to pull out a snowstorm in this pattern, in this winter.

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Multi-year Nina events like 75-76, 00-01 or even 1908-09 were very legit but years like 56-57 were crap. A neutral Winter next year cant be any more worse than this year......but like you said it would still be horrid. Another moderate Nina next year or a weak Nino.....no moderate-strong Nino.....or neutral IMO.

Weak El Nino years can produce higher than normal snowfalls in the Great Lakes. I'd rather have a weak El Nino than a straight neutral winter. The last neutral winter of 03-04 produced about normal snowfall here. The last weak El Nino of 04-05 produced about 59" here.

Agreed!

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Weak El Nino years can produce higher than normal snowfalls in the Great Lakes. I'd rather have a weak El Nino than a straight neutral winter. The last neutral winter of 03-04 produced about normal snowfall here. The last weak El Nino of 04-05 produced about 59" here.

Agreed!

Yeah sure. Here's a composite of all the Nino's that followed a Nina;

post-6644-0-60415900-1329674384.png

Narrowing that down to just Weak-Mod Nino's;

post-6644-0-15947000-1329674423.png

Again dont take these composite maps for granted, they're good for references but two winters are never alike. And snowfall is more of short range thing. Seasonally Nina's are better in our area but not every Nina. 1999-00 and this year are prime examples of horrible Nina's and not every Nino is horrible in our area, prime examples include 04-05 or 02-03. Its just a matter of how the teleconnections react as well. A -AO and neutral-slightly negative NAO along with a neutral PNA is best preferred in our area with a Nino.

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Yeah sure. Here's a composite of all the Nino's that followed a Nina;

[attachment=57668:Nino\'s

Narrowing that down to just Weak-Mod Nino's;

[attachment=57669:Weak nino\'s

Again dont take these composite maps for granted, they're good for references but two winters are never alike. And snowfall is more of short range thing. Seasonally Nina's are better in our area but not every Nina. 1999-00 and this year are prime examples of horrible Nina's and not every Nino is horrible in our area, prime examples include 04-05 or 02-03. Its just a matter of how the teleconnections react as well. A -AO and neutral-slightly negative NAO along with a neutral PNA is best preferred in our area with a Nino.

Looks like a west based Greenland block is common during those types of winters.

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Looks like the signals for better moisture return are beginning to show up ahead of the big system in the mid range of the 18z GFS. Big ridge off the east coast, large reservoir of untapped Gulf juice just sitting there waiting...

Although, the ensembles aren't nearly as amplified with the system as they were in the 00z/06z runs.

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