andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z GFS is crap for people looking for interesting weather Then again, the GFS has kind of been A.D.D. as of recent runs so I'm skeptical of virtually everything it displays unless there is run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z GFS is crap for people looking for interesting weather I was just gonna say I expected you to be in here any minute posting about the Euro severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was just gonna say I expected you to be in here any minute posting about the Euro severe threat. Looking at PSU's E-Wall right now and it's at 168, I'm gonna let it surprise me, although it looks pretty nasty with a powerful trough off the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z Euro has a pretty broad warm sector but you need a magnifying glass to find the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like it holds the big trough back for ejection sometime later after the run ends, with a whole bunch of sfc lows/shortwaves circling around it from 192 hrs on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah, we need one big piece ejecting out. Sad, I am hoping for a huge torch and severe weather. It just sounds exciting. The good thing is, is that the majority of models/ensembles continue to show the signal of the amplification of the western ridge and then the large trough digging to the east of it, details on how it ejects won't be known for awhile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z Euro has a pretty broad warm sector but you need a magnifying glass to find the surface low. 60's all the way up to around the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think what makes this winter season even crappier is that we have had so many little systems that look alright even in the medium range and then one day they're "supposed to hit" the midwest they turn to CRAP. Next week was looking good for snow in Michigan...now the models seem to headed towards more CRAP. Argh. This winter makes me hate winter. The thing that makes it seem worse is that this winter is just the opposite of last winter. Those little systems turned out alright last year. It seemed all we had to do was sneeze and it snowed. This year, the pattern is completely different, with the pac jet dominating. I'm hanging on for the next 3-4 weeks hoping someone in the Midwest can see a really nice storm, but after that, bring on the severe and warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That's over 3 times our entire Feb total so far lol. Congrats!! At least you've had a 4" storm. I'd trade you if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in. Have to disagree. Lots-o-shortwaves per the models. None in particular look like a major storm, but I could see a few spots picking up 1-3" with each of them. We've had way more boring stretches of weather so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If the forums need to do server work it should be done next week. The most boring stretch of weather sets in. Have to disagree. Lots-o-shortwaves per the models. None in particular look like a major storm, but I could see a few spots picking up 1-3" with each of them. We've had way more boring stretches of weather so far. I agree with SSC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We might be saying that about 12-13 if it ends up being neutral. Multi-year Nina events like 75-76, 00-01 or even 1908-09 were very legit but years like 56-57 were crap. A neutral Winter next year cant be any more worse than this year......but like you said it would still be horrid. Another moderate Nina next year or a weak Nino.....no moderate-strong Nino.....or neutral IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For all the storm talk late last week and today, especially in subforums to our east, I do sit here with a bit of a salacious grin on my face knowing that my 2.3" might end up being one of the highest recorded total of any member of this board during this period (sans roardog). Something satisfying of not being the butt of mother nature's joke for once. misery does enjoy company, I have to admit. At least we knew 3 days earlier that the gfs runs of an amped further north storm had turned to crap, the folks in the MA were led down the path of hope right up til the very end. That really sux when that happens. besides, I think my head would have exploded if DC was able to pull out a snowstorm in this pattern, in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Whatever it falls as (snow/rain/sleet/?) it does look like a wet 7 days coming up around these parts. GFS shows 3 shots of precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Multi-year Nina events like 75-76, 00-01 or even 1908-09 were very legit but years like 56-57 were crap. A neutral Winter next year cant be any more worse than this year......but like you said it would still be horrid. Another moderate Nina next year or a weak Nino.....no moderate-strong Nino.....or neutral IMO. Weak El Nino years can produce higher than normal snowfalls in the Great Lakes. I'd rather have a weak El Nino than a straight neutral winter. The last neutral winter of 03-04 produced about normal snowfall here. The last weak El Nino of 04-05 produced about 59" here. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Storm now getting into the 8-9 day timeframe on the models. A couple of the 6z GFS ensemble members were extremely wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Weak El Nino years can produce higher than normal snowfalls in the Great Lakes. I'd rather have a weak El Nino than a straight neutral winter. The last neutral winter of 03-04 produced about normal snowfall here. The last weak El Nino of 04-05 produced about 59" here. Agreed! Yeah sure. Here's a composite of all the Nino's that followed a Nina; Narrowing that down to just Weak-Mod Nino's; Again dont take these composite maps for granted, they're good for references but two winters are never alike. And snowfall is more of short range thing. Seasonally Nina's are better in our area but not every Nina. 1999-00 and this year are prime examples of horrible Nina's and not every Nino is horrible in our area, prime examples include 04-05 or 02-03. Its just a matter of how the teleconnections react as well. A -AO and neutral-slightly negative NAO along with a neutral PNA is best preferred in our area with a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have to disagree. Lots-o-shortwaves per the models. None in particular look like a major storm, but I could see a few spots picking up 1-3" with each of them. We've had way more boring stretches of weather so far. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah sure. Here's a composite of all the Nino's that followed a Nina; [attachment=57668:Nino\'s Narrowing that down to just Weak-Mod Nino's; [attachment=57669:Weak nino\'s Again dont take these composite maps for granted, they're good for references but two winters are never alike. And snowfall is more of short range thing. Seasonally Nina's are better in our area but not every Nina. 1999-00 and this year are prime examples of horrible Nina's and not every Nino is horrible in our area, prime examples include 04-05 or 02-03. Its just a matter of how the teleconnections react as well. A -AO and neutral-slightly negative NAO along with a neutral PNA is best preferred in our area with a Nino. Looks like a west based Greenland block is common during those types of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 12Z ECMWF at 144 hrs = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 12Z ECMWF at 144 hrs = Wow, big time New England - CA Maritime snowstorm! Doubt it with a positive NAO! - probably cut west of the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wow, big time New England - CA Maritime snowstorm! Doubt it with a positive NAO! - probably cut west of the Mountains. Don't say that, I don't want to look at every model run for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 12Z ECMWF at 144 hrs = 968 mb low over Maine. I don't visit the other sub forums, but it must be city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Another sunny and warm winter day in Wisconsin. ~40 °F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 A seasonable day here for this time of February. 35°, sunny. A chilly low of 17° this morning! Thought this was a cool graphic(s) put out by WGN yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like the signals for better moisture return are beginning to show up ahead of the big system in the mid range of the 18z GFS. Big ridge off the east coast, large reservoir of untapped Gulf juice just sitting there waiting... Although, the ensembles aren't nearly as amplified with the system as they were in the 00z/06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nice...18z gfs shows -12F on March 5th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nice...18z gfs shows -12F on March 5th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Nice...18z gfs shows -12F on March 5th... With no snow pack! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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