andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here we go again. The promising day 7+ storm is disappearing from the models. The western trough is becoming increasingly shallow and less amplified. Recent GFS runs have shifted the storm to the northern plains. A few days ago the Euro had a highly amplified pattern evolving with a sharp ridge shooting north into Alaska and a sharp, deep trough digging into the sw US. It has been shifting away from that scenario and the latest run has de-amplified to the point where there is no ridge into Alaska, only a shallow, broad western trough, and a surface low skirting the Canada/US border. It could very well come back in later runs, the GFS had virtually nothing yesterday night and is back to the big storm verbatim, just further north. It could easily trend south and then we're back in business again. Several of the ensemble members continue to show the system. The western ridge really needs to assert its dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 It could very well come back in later runs, the GFS had virtually nothing yesterday night and is back to the big storm verbatim, just further north. It could easily trend south and then we're back in business again. The western ridge really needs to assert its dominance. I've been impressed that we keep seeing something showing up consistently in the long range on most op runs and many ensembles. Often they will lose a storm completely. We will either have a significant storm or we won't but I think it's way too early to put much stock into any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I got about 5.8cm or 2.3". Temperature in my area still sitting just under the freezing mark. No melting yet lol. 2"+ of beautiful cement like snow caked on everything reduced to patches in just what...5 hours? Ugh, this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A lot of different shortwaves embedded within the broad longwave trough setting up over the central US in the long range. I wouldn't be too worried about any one run as the models are going to invariably have trouble with how the s/ws interact, which one amplifies, etc. Just try and pick out trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Stick with the trends my friends... Its getting late... Spring hopefully won't be a huge turd, but I have a feeling this positive temp anomalies can't go on much longer in the northern states. I sure wouldn't mind a cold summer, as long as it doesn't rain every day. Earlier I had 85.1F inside the greenhouse, with an outside temp of 34F. Must be very clear air today allowing excellent solar radiation. A little remaining snow also helps reflect some light in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 2"+ of beautiful cement like snow caked on everything reduced to patches in just what...5 hours? Ugh, this winter. Sad. But this is what'd you expect in late February-March. I have about 0.5 to 1" left lol....and the snow piles haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I would LOVE for the GGEM at 150hr to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 18z GFS is positive eye candy, and not just the stuff at 200 hours+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 2"+ of beautiful cement like snow caked on everything reduced to patches in just what...5 hours? Ugh, this winter. We had 2.4" and we still have 2.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 18z GFS is positive eye candy, and not just the stuff at 200 hours+ All kinds of systems, but not a lot of Gulf moisture available for some of them (or at least the ones in the more immediate time frames). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The area to watch IMO over the next several days will be the eastern Pacific up into Alaska...if we can get a true block that extends up through Alaska by next weekend there is a much better chance that the fast Pacific flow gets disrupted and that significant amplification occurs over the western US. It appears pretty clear cut that there will not be blocking on the Atlantic side of the continent to end out the month, so from what I'm seeing the choices for our end of the month storm go something like: 1. Seasonal trends prevail and ridging over Alaska is not as strong as some models indicate now, we see a broader trough and any storm remains unphased...we see a weak low pressure track over the lower lakes or Ohio Valley with perhaps a swath of relatively light snow on the northern fringe of any precip. 2. Model trends prevail, we see a block develop over Alaska and a deep trough moving out of the western US during the February 26-27 timeframe. A trough this deep would likely be able to phase with any subtropical energy and a strong storm would be likely somewhere, although given the lack of blocking over the North Atlantic or the polar regions on our side of the hemisphere, a track farther NW would be favored and the Plains see a decent snowstorm and the warm sector gets interesting over the OV. 3. Seasonal trends prevail and then some, and we don't see a notable storm anywhere. Right now, I'd lean towards the seasonal trends but just slightly because we are still over a week out. How the models handle the ridging over Alaska and off the west coast in the coming days should be telling. Much of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes should see a shot or two at a light snow event as the trough builds in this week. The flow will still be somewhat flat so big storm chances appear to be minimal until after the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sure it is eye candy. Anything over 168hrs always is. Especially with all the s/w's running together as canuk said. Even the more trusty 84-120 hr range may have a major change. Loved the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 these are worthless on weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Something you got to wonder about, given the Euro is at all correct...is look at the amount of cold building into Canada... That could really bring some winter down for March: I'm becoming a little worried about any early taste of spring (not like we've had a winter)... in March. today: 240hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 these are worthless on weekends. Yeah, pretty sure it's automated with no human input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That's true, although I'll be on the cold side of every storm, buried in 10ft drifts of concrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Remember though that 1949-50 was a La Nina year and late February/early March turned really cold. Wouldn't it be something if that happened this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Several sites in the region are still on track to get the Dual Pol upgrade over the next 1-2 months... LSX - Feb. 27-Mar. 11th DVN - Mar. 19-Apr. 1st MKX - Apr. 2-15th ARX - Apr. 16-29th GRB - Apr. 30-May 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Several sites in the region are still on track to get the Dual Pol upgrade over the next 1-2 months... LSX - Feb. 27-Mar. 11th DVN - Mar. 19-Apr. 1st MKX - Apr. 2-15th ARX - Apr. 16-29th GRB - Apr. 30-May 13th Yeah, wasn't very happy to see DVN getting upgraded during that time. A little early, but there could certainly be some severe in that time frame. Sure wish they would have done it in the Fall or Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For all the storm talk late last week and today, especially in subforums to our east, I do sit here with a bit of a salacious grin on my face knowing that my 2.3" might end up being one of the highest recorded total of any member of this board during this period (sans roardog). Something satisfying of not being the butt of mother nature's joke for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For all the storm talk late last week and today, especially in subforums to our east, I do sit here with a bit of a salacious grin on my face knowing that my 2.3" might end up being one of the highest recorded total of any member of this board during this period (sans roardog). Something satisfying of not being the butt of mother nature's joke for once. That's over 3 times our entire Feb total so far lol. Congrats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What really makes this particular winter season really frustrating, even though based on the final totals it's not unprecedented, is for all of the crap seasons of the past, all of them did feature a major, widespread, amped up snow storm SOMEWHERE in the country (and for Toronto folks. *region*), or at least we had amped up rainstorms. Even 1998-1999 had the January Blizzard and 2000-2001 (or was it 2001-2002?) had the December snowstorm. 82-83 and 88-89 even had something in March (which could happen this season as well, but just making a point). Not so for this season as of today. This winter's crap just rips a whole new one for crappy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What really makes this particular winter season really frustrating, even though based on the final totals it's not unprecedented, is for all of the crap seasons of the past, all of them did feature a major, widespread, amped up snow storm SOMEWHERE in the country (and for Toronto folks. *region*), or at least we had amped up rainstorms. Even 1998-1999 had the January Blizzard and 2000-2001 (or was it 2001-2002?) had the December snowstorm. 82-83 and 88-89 even had something in March (which could happen this season as well, but just making a point). Not so for this season as of today. This winter's crap just rips a whole new one for crappy winters. I think what makes this winter season even crappier is that we have had so many little systems that look alright even in the medium range and then one day they're "supposed to hit" the midwest they turn to CRAP. Next week was looking good for snow in Michigan...now the models seem to headed towards more CRAP. Argh. This winter makes me hate winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What really makes this particular winter season really frustrating, even though based on the final totals it's not unprecedented, is for all of the crap seasons of the past, all of them did feature a major, widespread, amped up snow storm SOMEWHERE in the country (and for Toronto folks. *region*), or at least we had amped up rainstorms. Even 1998-1999 had the January Blizzard and 2000-2001 (or was it 2001-2002?) had the December snowstorm. 82-83 and 88-89 even had something in March (which could happen this season as well, but just making a point). Not so for this season as of today. This winter's crap just rips a whole new one for crappy winters. In each region locally it hasn't been recordsetting-ly bad, but I agree that this winter overall for the contiguous US has been remarkably futile. Outside of the October storm for the east, which wasn't even technically winter, there has been absolutely bubkis going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least for many of us in the future we'll be able to say at least it isn't as bad as it was back in the winter of 11/12. In my 35 yrs I've seen some crappy winters, but this one takes the cake HANDS DOWN. It'd be one thing if it were just here, but there really hasn't been much of interest when it comes to tracking things all season. Might be going out on a limb here, but I'd guess this is the longest stretch of benign weather that I've ever seen in any season of any year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least for many of us in the future we'll be able to say at least it isn't as bad as it was back in the winter of 11/12. In my 35 yrs I've seen some crappy winters, but this one takes the cake HANDS DOWN. It'd be one thing if it were just here, but there really hasn't been much of interest when it comes to tracking things all season. Might be going out on a limb here, but I'd guess this is the longest stretch of benign weather that I've ever seen in any season of any year. We might be saying that about 12-13 if it ends up being neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We might be saying that about 12-13 if it ends up being neutral. LOL. Unless something changes over the next 3-6 weeks I don't know if that would even be possible. Certainly possible that many areas will perceive 11/12 as "rock/bottom". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Saturday, February 18th: Hi: 40F Lo: 23F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 20MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 This run of the Euro looks like somewhat better amplification out west by 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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