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February 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

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Weird stuff going on outside right now...10 minutes ago it was a rain/snow mixture, coming down at a good clip, that switched to light snow and sleet, and now we're getting these flakes that are just monsters but really spread apart and floating down very slowly.

Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

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Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

Well I'd bareeely call it snow here, its done already and not so much as a single speck of white is on the ground...but yeah, it was a very nice day earlier.

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Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

It snowed nicely up here for a few hours with some periods of ripping snow with monster flakes mixed in up here late this morning and around noon.. Didn't accumulate much at all though and in a matter of a few hours it was like nothing had happened and the sun was out making for a beautiful February day outside..

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It snowed nicely up here for a few hours with some periods of ripping snow with monster flakes mixed in up here late this morning and around noon.. Didn't accumulate much at all though and in a matter of a few hours it was like nothing had happened and the sun was out making for a beautiful February day outside..

Sweet. Sometimes those fast transitions in conditions can be pretty interesting, even without appreciable accumulations.

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Ya for the nrn plains.

Then the Upper Midwest the following day, not to mention the warm sector side, which doesn't have that lead wave like in the 12z run to hamper potential Gulf return flow, but then again I'm probably over-analyzing considering we're this far out... :weenie:

Although it is nice to see the level of consistency between the two Euro runs today.

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Then the Upper Midwest the following day, not to mention the warm sector side, which doesn't have that lead wave like in the 12z run to hamper potential Gulf return flow, but then again I'm probably over-analyzing considering we're this far out, although it is nice to see the consistency between the two Euro runs today.

No lead wave immediately prior like 12z but there is that thing around 168 hours which does a good job hampering the return flow.

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WRT to 9-11 day system, a large number of the Ensemble members for the GFS have strong solutions, actually the only the OP GFS and 2 other Ensemble members didn't go gang busters with the system.

Here's the graphics, most of the CMC ensembles have it too:

216:

240:

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ECers ripping their hair out.

2.2" here to be exact. Really narrow band per radar. Much of that must have fallen within one hour. Would have loved to see that. Stupid sleep.

I got about 5.8cm or 2.3". Temperature in my area still sitting just under the freezing mark. No melting yet lol.

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DVN early morning discussion is interesting regarding the 7-10 day storm.

...INCREASING EVIDENCE

OF A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT CONUS AND POSSIBLY OUR AREA CIRCA

DAYS 7-10. SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT

THIS WINTER IF IT PHASES OVER AREA. THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE ANSWERED

BASED ON JET ENERGETICS (LENGTH-INTENSITY) WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST WITH MOSTLY MODEST DAY TO DAY

CHANGES AND EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE DAY TO DAY DIURNAL RANGES FROM

CLIMATOLOGY.

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Here we go again. The promising day 7+ storm for the midwest is gradually disappearing from the models. The western trough is becoming increasingly less amplified. Recent GFS runs have shifted the storm to the northern plains. A few days ago the Euro had a highly amplified pattern evolving with a sharp ridge shooting north into Alaska and a sharp, deep trough digging into the sw US. It has been shifting away from that scenario and the latest run has de-amplified to the point where there is little ridging into Alaska, only a broad, blah western trough, and a surface low skirting the Canada/US border. :axe:

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