Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

Its almost staggering how many sunny days we have managed to string together since Jan. I don't think it's anywhere near a record amount but it's high. It's beautiful outside. Moms pushing the little ones around, people jogging, hippies hitting disc chains and the occasional Dbag kid with his windows rolled down bumping Kayne or whatever.

:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 527
  • Created
  • Last Reply

GFS and Euro are night and day around here next Monday/Tuesday. Each model has some energy at the southern end of the trough moving out into the plains. The GFS largely drops that energy and weakens the whole thing into a simple trough early next week, but the Euro maintains it and drives some good mid level energy across this area. GFS drops a decent rain while the Euro drops several inches of snow from east-central IA into northern IL.

Euro

Euro.gif

Does the EURO occlude?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its almost staggering how many sunny days we have managed to string together since Jan. I don't think it's anywhere near a record amount but it's high. It's beautiful outside. Moms pushing the little ones around, people jogging, hippies hitting disc chains and the occasional Dbag kid with his windows rolled down bumping Kayne or whatever.

I hate going off topic, but that reminds me of this:

Royal Oak is one of my favorite Detroit suburbs though.

But yes, the sun and warmth this winter has been impressive. Every day that was cold or snowy was an intermittent anomaly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its almost staggering how many sunny days we have managed to string together since Jan. I don't think it's anywhere near a record amount but it's high. It's beautiful outside. Moms pushing the little ones around, people jogging, hippies hitting disc chains and the occasional Dbag kid with his windows rolled down bumping Kayne or whatever.

OK now you've killed it... LMAO you make it sound like its 80f hahaha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in the process of sending out an email to them right now about Feb 11. They do make oopsies like that from time to time, but usually it's corrected within 3-4 days. If we're going to go for the futility record, we should at least make it legitimate. Although, even if they plug in 2.2cm of snow, that's still by far the lowest total in the city, and likely inaccurate.

Thats great, thanks man. Its kind of odd that YYZ saw only 2.2cm whereas every area surrounding it saw atleast 2"...did the guy that measures fail math or something lol?

Its kind of strange that the year after YYZ commenced we had the snowiest Winter on record and no Winter since then has beaten it but several came really close including, 42-43, 49-50, 59-60, 64-65, 70-71, 77-78 and 07-08. I have a hard time trusting EC's numbers for YYZ.

Ready for 1-2" tomorrow, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I doubt the positive temp anomalies can be overcome in most places. As far as snow, we'll see.

The latest weeklies look really warm in March, any thoughts on that? The AO seems to be going positive along with a tanking PNA. The MJO may also propagate thru phases 3-5 later in the month and its kind of strange, despite the MJO being in phases 8,1,2 recently....its stil been way above normal. Unbelieveable.

Next time we see an Alaskan Vortex, I'm booking a flight to Alaska right away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest weeklies look really warm in March, any thoughts on that? The AO seems to be going positive along with a tanking PNA. The MJO may also propagate thru phases 3-5 later in the month and its kind of strange, despite the MJO being in phases 8,1,2 recently....its stil been way above normal. Unbelieveable.

Next time we see an Alaskan Vortex, I'm booking a flight to Alaska right away.

Why doubt it at this point, especially given the indices look to trend even less favorable.  Perhaps parts of the western/far northern tier can stay on the cool side if that pattern sets up but that won't really help most.

The 10th-13th were below average here.  I guess that's all we're going to get out of the favorable MJO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why doubt it at this point, especially given the indices look to trend even less favorable. Perhaps parts of the western/far northern tier can stay on the cool side if that pattern sets up but that won't really help most.

The 10th-13th were below average here. I guess that's all we're going to get out of the favorable MJO.

Its astounding...none of this was expected. Even the worst of all Winters had atleast one decently sized storm to track whereas this year, none.

With the -PNA setting up, I'd suspect a return of cold anomalies West of Manitoba later in the month with building warm anomalies come March across the East. Lets see how this affects the severe wx season.

Seems like the battle between East and West is winding down as the MJO propagates back into favorbale phases for La Nina development.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should be interesting...I'm leaving all my plants (seedlings) out in my greenhouse tonite (unheated/6 mil plastic)... It was 84F earlier in there today, but right now its sitting at 40F (temps inside drop like a rock after sun goes down)... Low looks around 23F here ...inside maybe upper 20Fs...? I covered them with an extra blanket.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know, but February might end up on the cold and snow side? Anyone else agree??

DTW needs 4.4" more snow to hit the normal Feb snowfall of 10.4", so thats possible, but with a temp departure currently of +5.0F, I dont see a chance the month ends up colder than normal. Now, if you mean Feb will end on a cold, snowy note...then yes, I do agree that is a distinct possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could someone tell me the last time Detroit had this few of days with snow on the ground? Or point me in the direction where I could find this out myself

Its hard to determine because we are at a point in the season (Feb 17th) with quite a bit of time left with an unknown amount of snowcover days. But it has certainly happened before.

I have Detroits snowcover sincer 1908, so in the last 103 years, here is the top 10 most and top 10 least days with 1"+ snowcover in a season. DTW has had 19 days this season with 1"+ snowcover, so even if not one more day had snowcover (which is extremely, extremely unlikely), it would only tie for 7th barest winter since 1908.

01.) 91 days (1977-78) *** 01.) 10 days (1936-37)

02.) 89 days (1947-48) *** 02.) 11 days (1931-32)

03.) 89 days (1981-82) *** 03.) 12 days (1918-19)

04.) 86 days (1966-67) *** 04.) 15 days (1982-83)

05.) 85 days (1911-12) *** 05.) 16 days (1952-53)

06.) 84 days (1909-10) *** 06.) 17 days (1948-49)

07.) 82 days (1958-59) *** 07.) 19 days (1979-80)

08.) 81 days (1962-63) *** 08.) 19 days (1988-89)

09.) 80 days (2010-11) *** 09.) 20 days (1941-42)

10.) 79 days (1929-30) *** 10.) 21 days (1943-44)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And DAFF to answer your question in the locked Feb thread...Detroits latest ever measurable snow was 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883. Of course that was a fluke to say the least. There was also the infamous 6.0" on May 9, 1923. But realistically, Id say mid-April is when you can put the salt away. Last year we had a 1-2" snowfall on April 18th, was gone by evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DTW needs 4.4" more snow to hit the normal Feb snowfall of 10.4", so thats possible, but with a temp departure currently of +5.0F, I dont see a chance the month ends up colder than normal. Now, if you mean Feb will end on a cold, snowy note...then yes, I do agree that is a distinct possibility.

THAT'S WHAT I MENT..MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THAT HUGE SYSTEM IN THE 6-10 DAY RANGE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And DAFF to answer your question in the locked Feb thread...Detroits latest ever measurable snow was 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883. Of course that was a fluke to say the least. There was also the infamous 6.0" on May 9, 1923. But realistically, Id say mid-April is when you can put the salt away. Last year we had a 1-2" snowfall on April 18th, was gone by evening.

What's the earliest trace of snowfall Detroit has had?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its hard to determine because we are at a point in the season (Feb 17th) with quite a bit of time left with an unknown amount of snowcover days. But it has certainly happened before.

I have Detroits snowcover sincer 1908, so in the last 103 years, here is the top 10 most and top 10 least days with 1"+ snowcover in a season. DTW has had 19 days this season with 1"+ snowcover, so even if not one more day had snowcover (which is extremely, extremely unlikely), it would only tie for 7th barest winter since 1908.

01.) 91 days (1977-78) *** 01.) 10 days (1936-37)

02.) 89 days (1947-48) *** 02.) 11 days (1931-32)

03.) 89 days (1981-82) *** 03.) 12 days (1918-19)

04.) 86 days (1966-67) *** 04.) 15 days (1982-83)

05.) 85 days (1911-12) *** 05.) 16 days (1952-53)

06.) 84 days (1909-10) *** 06.) 17 days (1948-49)

07.) 82 days (1958-59) *** 07.) 19 days (1979-80)

08.) 81 days (1962-63) *** 08.) 19 days (1988-89)

09.) 80 days (2010-11) *** 09.) 20 days (1941-42)

10.) 79 days (1929-30) *** 10.) 21 days (1943-44)

Thanks. I knew that we we probably weren't on pace for a top ten worst, I was more just curious when the last time was because I know we've been so spoiled as of late. I've heard a lot of people complaining that this is one of the worst winters they've ever witnessed (irl that is, not on here so much), and I just have to keep reminding them (and myself) that it probably seems a lot worse than it really is because of how good the past decade has been. This winter has been solidly bad, but no really not close to record setting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks. I knew that we we probably weren't on pace for a top ten worst, I was more just curious when the last time was because I know we've been so spoiled as of late. I've heard a lot of people complaining that this is one of the worst winters they've ever witnessed (irl that is, not on here so much), and I just have to keep reminding them (and myself) that it probably seems a lot worse than it really is because of how good the past decade has been. This winter has been solidly bad, but no really not close to record setting.

That is SO true, and i can think of no better way to sum up this winter than your last sentence. This A bad combo of how good the past decade has been and how extreme predictions were foe this winter. As you said, this winter has been solidly bad, but not close to record setting. Can we make the top 10 barest winters since 1908? Yeah, if we get 2 days or less with snow on the ground from here on out. Not likely at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's the earliest trace of snowfall Detroit has had?

Earliest trace of snow: Oct 1, 1974

Earliest measurable snow: 0.2" on Oct 12, 2006

Latest trace of snow: May 31, 1910

Latest measurable snow: 2.7" on May 22, 1883*

Latest first trace of snow: Dec 16, 1998

Latest first measurable snow: 0.1" on Dec 29, 1998**

Earliest last trace of snow: Mar 11, 1946

Earliest last measurable snow: 0.7" on Feb 27, 1946 & 0.1" on Feb 27, 2010***

*Storm total 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883

**The worst start to winter ever, and just 4 days later we had THE blizzard

***Following the Feb 27, 2010 snow, deep snow remained on the ground through early March, but the Feb 27, 1946 snow only stayed on the ground til March 1st.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weird stuff going on outside right now...10 minutes ago it was a rain/snow mixture, coming down at a good clip, that switched to light snow and sleet, and now we're getting these flakes that are just monsters but really spread apart and floating down very slowly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...