Indystorm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 While others are wondering about Thursday's snow track I have had a rather unexpected inch of snow here in Dunlap today. Very fine pouring snow this early am, then some huge quarter and half dollar snowflakes in early afternoon. Ground continues to be mainly white. Today's snow has lasted a lot longer on the ground than Tues. am snow did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 What the heck is the GFS showing next Weds? Its pumping out 2 inches of precip for LSE (mostly all liquid, or so it would seem)... That would be a nice svr wx maker from IN on southward in my estimation. GFS has been rather consistent in showing something significant for near the end of Feb. in many runs so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 40F and mostly sun this afternoon... Another beautiful Feb day... Going to be tough to finish the month below norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Snowstorms, I heard back from climate services today re: Feb 11 Good afternoon Michael, Your comment has been forwarded to Environment Canada's National Climate Services. It is likely that you are correct. After viewing the hourly data you will see that snow is listed as falling during the first 12 hours of the day while rain is never mentioned. I have forwarded on your findings to the Quality Control Team for them to investigate. This will take some time as they will likely need to contact the station. Thank you for passing along this information. If you ever happen to find any other similar errors please send them to me directly. We are always looking for ways to improve the quality of our data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 don't be surprised to see some convective-ish elements across IL/IA/WI today. Some of the building cumulus earlier was actually quite nice. Nice to see again after the long cool season. Made it to 48 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Little sun this morning, but mainly cloudy day today, High 43°. Some light rain currently. +2.77° above normal for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Snowstorms, I heard back from climate services today re: Feb 11 That is good that they replied so quickly back to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Snowstorms, I heard back from climate services today re: Feb 11 Thats great. Atleast they realize the error and can fix it quickly. Even then, I still think 2.2cm is quite low. I think it should be corrected to 2" atleast as every other station got 2" atleast. If thats the case, then the month will be closing in on 6" thus far. Overall the total maybe around 16" then. Then only 4" more to the record low lol. Thanks for telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana I am at the point that I just want to see a bomb this winter. I dont care where (of course my yard would be the best) I just want to watch one come to fruition on the models, radar, and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I am at the point that I just want to see a bomb this winter. I dont care where (of course my yard would be the best) I just want to watch one come to fruition on the models, radar, and satellite. agree, i really like this period for a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 agree, i really like this period for a beast Also would be interesting to see how the models handle a real storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana I wasn't gonna look but you're forcing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 getting pea size graupel here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Some showers have been in the area in the last hour. I see Racine, WI is reporting -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 stars out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 agree, i really like this period for a beast As does Skilling. Not so much a monster but really liking this pattern we are in/heading into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 NWS out of Memphis already mentioning next week's potential system: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECASTMONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAD A HARD TIME FINDING ANY GUIDANCE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES I AGREED WITH NEXT WEEK...SO STARTED WITH THE GFS...BUT IN GENERAL RAISED READINGS 4-12 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT COOL...BUT NOT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF TDS. STARTING TO SEE THE MAKINGS OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DAYS TO REBOUND. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI...PLACING THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A TON OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LOTS OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON. Some kind of active pattern on the 00z GFS... 00z CMC/GGEM going nuts with the SLP next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Geez the 0z GFS has two major snowstorms between D6-10, with the second being in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Wednesday, February 22nd: Hi: 44F Lo: 31F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 11MPH Rainfall: 0.03" Snowfall: 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Geez the 0z GFS has two major snowstorms between D6-10, with the second being in March. 00z Euro does too, time to make up ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Here's the aforementioned CMC at 156 and 168 hrs: Unsurprisingly, Day 4-8 mentions the potential: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 VALID 261200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 6 REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER..THEY HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES OF WAVES TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO DAY 4 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY /DAY 6/ THEN OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM WAVE. IF MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It snowed enough to completely cover the ground last night. I would guess probably an inch by looking outside. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It snowed enough to completely cover the ground last night. I would guess probably an inch by looking outside. Interesting. I just looked out side here and it is a bit white here too in northern Oakland. Where did that come from? I wasn't expecting anything last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Just a trace here, so for once we didnt have to add any nickels to the season total which will melt by afternoon. It goes without saying that all eyes are on tonight. Biggest storm of the year so far 4.9" imby, 2nd biggest a tie twice at 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Winter has begun !!! Might be only 1-2 weeks long but action packed. GFS got me drewling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Winter has begun !!! Might be only 1-2 weeks long but action packed. GFS got me drewling. Check out the differences between the 0Z and 6Z GFS in the medium and long range. You will LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Saints= Why does everything that look good for around here end up being a complete failure? We may go through this "active" period with nothing. Did u see the 6z? Almost no precip now for LSE... Just amazing how crappy the GFS (and others at times) have handled all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Saints= Why does everything that look good for around here end up being a complete failure? We may go through this "active" period with nothing. Did u see the 6z? Almost no precip now for LSE... Just amazing how crappy the GFS (and others at times) have handled all of this. I would throw the 6z out, but it does follow the seasonal trend that we have seen so many times. It takes next weeks system south and week. The Euro really dumps on us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I didn't see the Euro, but you have to think the trend will continue until it doesn't... The south trend has been in place all winter it seems. I know one thing. You can't buy ANY model run anymore then about 48hrs right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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