Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks I'll go on a limb and say the gfs is going to be even better than 12z. Areas of vorticity to the main vort in mx are a bit further west than 12z. This thing might come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks I'll go on a limb and say the gfs is going to be even better than 12z. Areas of vorticity to the main vort in mx are a bit further west than 12z. This thing might come further north. Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Out to 48...comparing it to 54 on 12z it not only looks west but looks juicier. Could be good for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. You are such a party pooper Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SLP placement on 18z a tad slower... but its in the same area and strength as 12z was at 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. ok, that made me laugh. I'm just having some fun because I really haven't had much of a chance to put panels side by side and dissect the heck out of them. It's not worth doing for one inch of slush that melts in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SLP placement on 18z a tad slower... but its in the same area and strength as 12z was at 51 hrs seems a hair faster with the northern stream and a hair slower with the southern one at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dunno... 12z SLP placement at hr 63 was in C AL... 18z at 57 is in E MS... both are at 1004 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well it definitely isn't a miss on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW It's way slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 matt says gfs nails us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW why are you micro-analyzing the GFS 70+ hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's way slower. right more to come after 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting run....slower and colder but further south and not as much QPF...we still get nailed pretty good...I like where we stand You also mentioned earlier that slower was better. Better sticking chances with nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 matt says gfs nails us Yes, it comes later... Matt may have gotten his 6 hrs later wish on this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting run....slower and colder but further south and not as much QPF...we still get nailed pretty good...I like where we stand Basically all snow. 0.4"-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 why are you micro-analyzing the GFS 70+ hours out? Lol. That's our yoda. He'll micro analyze if the low was at the Mississippi river or 20 miles east on the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 good hit for everyone at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 right more to come after 69 It's still south though. Out to 87 gfs has .5" line just south of DC, compared to south PA at 12z. Precip makes it to C NJ compared to NYC/Cape Cod at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol. That's our yoda. He'll micro analyze if the low was at the Mississippi river or 20 miles east on the last run I was analyzing how slow it was.... yeah thats it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south) You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW you made me analyze my post like i was looking at the wrong map lol. yea it's slower. hr 72 is my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It is a goofy looking run...still lots to be worked out It's all snow and I'd take it in a heartbeat. It is goofy but so was the nam and Euro looks. It's the funny stuff happening in the northern stream. Change the strengh and timing a little and you go from nothing to a decent accumulating snow. That's why its best to be wishy washy until you have to make a decision or like in 2010 it's a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's still south though. Out to 87 gfs has .5" line just south of DC, compared to south PA at 12z. Precip makes it to C NJ compared to NYC/Cape Cod at 12z. I had 2 windows open comparing the last run and it updated I meant to say 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm.. I kinda like it. Certainly slower and a bit weaker. Deform still there. WV still looking to be the sweet spot. It's really hard to complain with this run. NAM was slower too (and of course further south) You could see the nam going south and the gfs holding on to the more north track kinda early on in the runs too. Which is right? IF the nrn stream speeds up and/or lifts north faster a bit more once over central NY state, I could see us getting in on better lift 75 hr and later it looks like the confluence over NE hurts us who are east of the mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually think this run of the GFS is better then some are giving it credit. GFS often has issues with the energy transfer on coastals and jumps lows too far to the east or even southeast. With this run it suddenly jumps the low that had been moving steadily NE straight ESE then resumes its northeast trajectory. This often leads to the appearance with this 18z gfs where heavy precip is taking a direct line right at us, then just dies out over WV. This is usually wrong and corrects itself closer in. Of course the GGEM/Euro solution could be right...but if the GFS is right with its general ideas...the end result might be better then this run indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Juicy in Western WV...total precip in the 1.5 to 1.75" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yes....very hard to have confidence in the exact track and banding, etc....I think we all need to be flexible....I have decided to chase if I think I am going to be missed, but I like where I stand for a 3" storm I too think we're in a pretty good place. We debated putting a 3 inch probability in the CWg piece and decided against it feeling things were too uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Juicy in Western WV...total precip in the 1.5 to 1.75" range probably not good to be in sweet spot today as things always shift. In any case I was at my place in Hardy County today and the last of the last three mini snows are down to the last few patches so time for some new snow. I will be back there tomorrow through Monday and would gladly take an October repeat. The count down begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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