mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm getting a bad feeling about the run. Hopefully it is nothing more than me being me. so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 VERY broad 1008 SLP at 69 on the 850-temp/MSLP map... stretches from AL to offshore NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 and boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cutoff for precip is DC via the sim radar. Not going to fret about <100 miles on the 18z NAM from 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at the H5 loop, UGH the flow in the northern stream really sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Shockingly surprised down here-- Almost worried it goes even further south. The southern vort takes a pounding between 60/66 or so. I know the juicy jet is already there, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. It looks like the confluence was stronger on this run and crushed the low south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. I know, I was j/k'ing as for the models always showing a storm, me too, but they never do but for 2/6/10 when the models saw it 5 days + out and it was more a question of 1' or 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know, I was j/k'ing as for the models always showing a storm, me too, but they never do but for 2/6/10 when the models saw it 5 days + out and it was more a question of 1' or 2' I'd say it was more a question of 20 inches or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. they go hand in hand probably. a weak sys is more likely to be shunted along by the fast flow. not to throw food to the snow weenies but if the nam has a 1004 low near the nc coast and the euro has a 996 you probably have to lean euro even if its "initialization was bad". it is however another model with a very sharp drop in precip on the north end.. yeah in a lot of storms it does not end up that sharp but that signal is pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 they go hand in hand probably. a weak sys is more likely to be shunted along by the fast flow. not to throw food to the snow weenies but if the nam has a 1004 low near the nc coast and the euro has a 996 you probably have to lean euro even if its "initialization was bad". it is however another model with a very sharp drop in precip on the north end.. yeah in a lot of storms it does not end up that sharp but that signal is pretty strong. A strong gradient is pretty standard fro cases like this one with a nice juicy southern stream shortwave running into strong confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Definitely looks like its gonna hold, if not even be a bit better than 12z to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 39 its a bit north of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Looks okay at 39.. minor differences showing up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks I'll go on a limb and say the gfs is going to be even better than 12z. Areas of vorticity to the main vort in mx are a bit further west than 12z. This thing might come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks I'll go on a limb and say the gfs is going to be even better than 12z. Areas of vorticity to the main vort in mx are a bit further west than 12z. This thing might come further north. Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Out to 48...comparing it to 54 on 12z it not only looks west but looks juicier. Could be good for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. You are such a party pooper Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SLP placement on 18z a tad slower... but its in the same area and strength as 12z was at 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just for kicks based on not even looking, I'll take the under. ok, that made me laugh. I'm just having some fun because I really haven't had much of a chance to put panels side by side and dissect the heck out of them. It's not worth doing for one inch of slush that melts in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SLP placement on 18z a tad slower... but its in the same area and strength as 12z was at 51 hrs seems a hair faster with the northern stream and a hair slower with the southern one at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dunno... 12z SLP placement at hr 63 was in C AL... 18z at 57 is in E MS... both are at 1004 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well it definitely isn't a miss on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS at 75 had 0.25" QPF at DCA and SW... 18z GFS at 69 has 0.00 QPF at DCA and 0.1" or less to SW It's way slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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