Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 vort over mx @ hr39 is definitely a bit weaker than hr 45 @ 12z. Probably insigificant but I have too much time on my hands between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 0z Euro might be in range before the 18Z NAM 18z GFS data prep/dump is already done and analysis is underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The storm might be here before the 18Z NAM Fixed it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 vort over mx @ hr39 is definitely a bit weaker than hr 45 @ 12z. Probably insigificant but I have too much time on my hands between panels. Looks about same to me... its just a bit to the SW more. its just open now instead of being closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Small changes at 48... h5 energy that was in W MI on 12z at 54 is in E WI on 18z... h5 energy in TX slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z NAM at 60 had a nice 1004 SLP in C LA... 18z NAM at 54 broad 1008 in same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z NAM at 57 had a nice 1004 SLP in W LA... 18z NAM at 51 naso much definitely a tad south than 12Z don;t know if it's just a hair slower or weaker/south than 12Z at this point prefer north considering the options, but we're already deep into the NAM run attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like suppression on this NAM run... 12z at 66 had 0.50-0.75 QPF into parts of TN... 18z has 0.1ish in the same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm getting a bad feeling about the run. Hopefully it is nothing more than me being me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm getting a bad feeling about the run. Hopefully it is nothing more than me being me. No you're right, its going pretty far south, could start to make some worry and have bad feelings about 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm getting a bad feeling about the run. Hopefully it is nothing more than me being me. Vort is about 75 miles SW-- but it's a tad stronger and more consolidated. I think it does me good here, but not up in DC> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm getting a bad feeling about the run. Hopefully it is nothing more than me being me. so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 VERY broad 1008 SLP at 69 on the 850-temp/MSLP map... stretches from AL to offshore NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 and boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cutoff for precip is DC via the sim radar. Not going to fret about <100 miles on the 18z NAM from 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at the H5 loop, UGH the flow in the northern stream really sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 so it's OK then to worry about then NAM at 60+ hrs? weenies unite!!! No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Shockingly surprised down here-- Almost worried it goes even further south. The southern vort takes a pounding between 60/66 or so. I know the juicy jet is already there, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. It looks like the confluence was stronger on this run and crushed the low south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. I know, I was j/k'ing as for the models always showing a storm, me too, but they never do but for 2/6/10 when the models saw it 5 days + out and it was more a question of 1' or 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know, I was j/k'ing as for the models always showing a storm, me too, but they never do but for 2/6/10 when the models saw it 5 days + out and it was more a question of 1' or 2' I'd say it was more a question of 20 inches or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The south track doesn't bother me much but the weaker overall system does. It's not like the nam wasn't in its range when it decided that the lp is going to be weaker. We'll see but not a friendly run. they go hand in hand probably. a weak sys is more likely to be shunted along by the fast flow. not to throw food to the snow weenies but if the nam has a 1004 low near the nc coast and the euro has a 996 you probably have to lean euro even if its "initialization was bad". it is however another model with a very sharp drop in precip on the north end.. yeah in a lot of storms it does not end up that sharp but that signal is pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 they go hand in hand probably. a weak sys is more likely to be shunted along by the fast flow. not to throw food to the snow weenies but if the nam has a 1004 low near the nc coast and the euro has a 996 you probably have to lean euro even if its "initialization was bad". it is however another model with a very sharp drop in precip on the north end.. yeah in a lot of storms it does not end up that sharp but that signal is pretty strong. A strong gradient is pretty standard fro cases like this one with a nice juicy southern stream shortwave running into strong confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Definitely looks like its gonna hold, if not even be a bit better than 12z to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 39 its a bit north of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS practically identical to 12z @ 33. Heh, i wouldn't mind a 12z gfs solution so I can totally forget the euro, nam, and canadian. Looks okay at 39.. minor differences showing up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.