Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19

[Ji]

Cosgrove just posted saying this should hit everyone up to Portland ME...and should be a stronger storm

[mitchnick]

JMA looks d@mn good actually at the upper levels

go here and look at 5H, 7H RH and 850 on 72 Hours (Day 4 comes out a little later I think)

http://wxcaster.com/...eign_models.htm

EDIT: JMA has a closed 5H Low over Missouri at 72 hrs

[Nor Easter]

Cosgrove just posted saying this should hit everyone up to Portland ME...and should be a stronger storm

He's basing his northern track on the fact that this system is going to tap into that "subtropical firehose" and Pac ocean...which can bee seen on the WV loop.

i just dont see how this gets that far north with that massive vortex sitting up there.

[PhineasC]

I remember this same thing happening with the 09-10 storms (not saying there are any real similarities). The edge of best precip kept moving until about 24 hours out. I recall snow maps that kept giving CHO like 4 feet of snow. Became a running joke since the storm always came north and they got sleet. The models struggle with the confluence in the NE.

[Bob Chill]

I remember this same thing happening with the 09-10 storms (not saying there are any real similarities). The edge of best precip kept moving until about 24 hours out. I recall snow maps that kept giving CHO like 4 feet of snow. Became a running joke since the storm always came north and they got sleet. The models struggle with the confluence in the NE.

I feel the same way. If the euro pushed this thing too far N I would be pretty bummed. Obviously I don't have the stats but If we totalled up every similar miller A over the last 10 years @ 72 hours that jogged south on the models, I'm willing to bet the final solution ended up further north 3 out of 4 times.

[mitchnick]

I feel the same way. If the euro pushed this thing too far N I would be pretty bummed. Obviously I don't have the stats but If we totalled up every similar miller A over the last 10 years @ 72 hours that jogged south on the models, I'm willing to bet the final solution ended up further north 3 out of 4 times.

agree w/you and Phin

with a +NAO, even though not by much, I'd be real surprised there was no drift north

in fact, no one should be surprised if were convincing ourselves tomorrow at this time that it will come south

[usedtobe]

My question. is how many times besides the Jan 26th even did we miss to the north last year. Seems like there were events where the south cashed in and we didn't as the storm did not trend north. I'm not saying it won't come north as this is a typical variation you see a lot with storms. However, I did find it bothersome that a nuber of SREFS members were suppressed. Those members and the euro are some cause for concern. I don't know what it will do here but do not see this getting into New England.

[CoastalWx]

My question. is how many times besides the Jan 26th even did we miss to the north last year. Seems like there were events where the south cashed in and we didn't as the storm did not trend north. I'm not saying it won't come north as this is a typical variation you see a lot with storms. However, I did find it bothersome that a nuber of SREFS members were suppressed. Those members and the euro are some cause for concern. I don't know what it will do here but do not see this getting into New England.

It's just not a good overall pattern in general, but especially New England. Looking at the big players, it just not a great pattern, but at least you guys have some room to play with. I hope it works out for you. It may not be the worst thing in the world to be on the edge right now,being 72 hrs out or so.

[winterymix]

The pattern after this storm looks promising perhaps for late next week into next weekend.

[usedtobe]

It's just not a good overall pattern in general, but especially New England. Looking at the big players, it just not a great pattern, but at least you guys have some room to play with. I hope it works out for you. It may not be the worst thing in the world to be on the edge right now,being 72 hrs out or so.

We have some room but we need decent precip rates so we do need the euro to come north and the GFS to hold serve.

[yoda]

I believe the ensembles were better than the OP the past few runs regarding the EURO? As in weren't the ensembles before the 00z run better for our region when the EURO OP was S and E of us?

[Ian]

My question. is how many times besides the Jan 26th even did we miss to the north last year. Seems like there were events where the south cashed in and we didn't as the storm did not trend north. I'm not saying it won't come north as this is a typical variation you see a lot with storms. However, I did find it bothersome that a nuber of SREFS members were suppressed. Those members and the euro are some cause for concern. I don't know what it will do here but do not see this getting into New England.

the euro has been south more than north in this whole game. there is reason to think north is usually the better option on an educated guess into the end but i would not bank on it. there are a number of gfs ensemble members that are suppressed to now.

[usedtobe]

The pattern after this storm looks promising perhaps for late next week into next weekend.

I don't see it as being that good a mean pattern. It's a positive AO and weakly positive NAO with a ridge near the southeast coast and a mean ridge off the west coast. That usually means lows go to your north at least at our latitude and you don't have any good highs to work with.

[mitchnick]

the euro has been south more than north in this whole game. there is reason to think north is usually the better option on an educated guess into the end but i would not bank on it. there are a number of gfs ensemble members that are suppressed to now.

there are always some suppressed, or some way north, or some ots, or some to our west it seems

statistically, these systems in a NINA come further north than modeled at 72 hrs more often than not and I don't believe that's an unfair statement

this could be one of the few that goes otherwise, but the odds favor us, and that's all we can hope for

put another way, anyone in DCA/BWI prefer the Euro or any other model being too far north for hit at this point?

[Deck Pic]

FWIW, which may not be much, as I mentioned last night, I expect that the models will converge on a solution not too different than the 12z Euro (though minor differences can be significant for us) and then start to jog north perhaps sometime tomorrow...The Euro run verbatim is not great for DC metro but it gets measurable precip north of Phildadelphia so I think we are in a good spot at this range

[Deck Pic]

Not to root against Huff, but I wouldnt want to be in the euro sweet spot right now with not much margin for error if it moves north

[CoastalWx]

We have some room but we need decent precip rates so we do need the euro to come north and the GFS to hold serve.

Yeah you were about 50 miles away from getting those heavier rates. I hope it works out. I feel like the old adage of not being in the bullseye and "north trend" normally applies to these southern stream events, but with the flow in Canada, it might not work out this time. We'll just see how it goes in the next 24 hrs, down there. Sometimes surprises can happen.

[yoda]

FWIW, which may not be much, as I mentioned last night, I expect that the models will converge on a solution not too different than the 12z Euro (though minor differences can be significant for us) and then start to jog north perhaps sometime tomorrow...The Euro run verbatim is not great for DC metro but it gets measurable precip north of Phildadelphia so I think we are in a good spot at this range

I agree that we are in a good spot and with your post. As been said before, being on the northern edge is better than the middle at this juncture

[Ian]

there are always some suppressed, or some way north, or some ots, or some to our west it seems

statistically, these systems in a NINA come further north than modeled at 72 hrs more often than not and I don't believe that's an unfair statement

this could be one of the few that goes otherwise, but the odds favor us, and that's all we can hope for

put another way, anyone in DCA/BWI prefer the Euro or any other model being too far north for hit at this point?

it's not an overwhelming signal but there is more suppression than prior runs which is probably at least worth considering. i think if most had to choose they'd go with what they see now rather than a perfect run (unless it could hold for 2-3 more days) or something too far north already. i do think there are reasons over the last winter+ to not assume it will shift north blindly.

[winterymix]

The EURO is out and shows a progressive pattern. The low moves from WSW to ENE.

Nothing is slowing it down and I'm guessing there will surely be a precipitation cut off and not much

making it north of NYC.

For MA:

My rough guess is that daytime Sunday will feature a rain/snow non-accumulating mix

and then by sunset, there will be 1 to 3 inch accumulations in the climatologically favored pattern

with best amouts along and NW of the "Fall Line".

[Deck Pic]

it's not an overwhelming signal but there is more suppression than prior runs which is probably at least worth considering. i think if most had to choose they'd go with what they see now rather than a perfect run (unless it could hold for 2-3 more days) or something too far north already. i do think there are reasons over the last winter+ to not assume it will shift north blindly.

not only do I expect a track shift, but the precip shield should expand and shift as well...we have played this game over and over...we get all worked up about suppression and then come game time, JYO - FDK - Phineas - PHL are getting flat pounded

[winterymix]

I don't see it as being that good a mean pattern. It's a positive AO and weakly positive NAO with a ridge near the southeast coast and a mean ridge off the west coast. That usually means lows go to your north at least at our latitude and you don't have any good highs to work with.

Okey-dokey...running out of winter soon.

[usedtobe]

Yeah you were about 50 miles away from getting those heavier rates. I hope it works out. I feel like the old adage of not being in the bullseye and "north trend" normally applies to these southern stream events, but with the flow in Canada, it might not work out this time. We'll just see how it goes in the next 24 hrs, down there. Sometimes surprises can happen.

The flow over Canada is pretty much the key. That's why I have no strong opinion on the storm other than I think we end as snow. If we got snow, it wouldn't be a surprise. If DCA got over 4 inches to me that would be a surprise even with the GFS 850 track which is darn good.

[Deck Pic]

The flow over Canada is pretty much the key. That's why I have no strong opinion on the storm other than I think we end as snow. If we got snow, it wouldn't be a surprise. If DCA got over 4 inches to me that would be a surprise even with the GFS 850 track which is darn good.

I think the chances of DCA getting 4"+ are slim....even if the guidance settled on a 4-7" event area wide, I'd expect DCA in this setup to put up a 2.9"

[Ian]

not only do I expect a track shift, but the precip shield should expand and shift as well...we have played this game over and over...we get all worked up about suppression and then come game time, JYO - FDK - Phineas - PHL are getting flat pounded

i agree with your general scenario as a possibility... hopefully it happens.

[am19psu]

not only do I expect a track shift, but the precip shield should expand and shift as well...we have played this game over and over...we get all worked up about suppression and then come game time, JYO - FDK - Phineas - PHL are getting flat pounded

It might shift northward, but I wouldn't expect the shield itself to expand. There is going to be a sharp northern cutoff with this system given the confluence to the north.

[usedtobe]

Okey-dokey...running out of winter soon.

We have Sunday which is still up in the air and the model could be wrong about the mean pattern as they have not been stellar this year. The only reason I posted as I had started a pattern post for CWG that included a map like that so I had an opinion. Then this storm threat arose and I've shelved the long range post for a storm post.

[ohleary]

miss to the s&e? man I wish I ncep had 3 hour euro maps.

We do! Just get a job here Yea the 12z Euro grazes DC but no reason to whine, the precip gradient is tight so a relatively small adjustment north with a bit more of an expanded precip field like the GFS and DC is in business.

[Deck Pic]

i agree with your general scenario as a possibility... hopefully it happens.

the chances that a low bombs out to 992 and best deform sets up on an EZF - CHO - ROA axis are pretty slim imo

[winterymix]

We do! Just get a job here Yea the 12z Euro grazes DC but no reason to whine, the precip gradient is tight so a relatively small adjustment north with a bit more of an expanded precip field like the GFS and DC is in business.

Can you explain why more cold air is not expected to drain down along the Mid-Atlantic peidmont? There seems to be 1026 HIGH in Montreal-Detroit area that transitions a bit south over time and -20 C temperatures in southern Canada.

I guess the simple answer is that the LOW coming up the coast will supply wrap around warmth from the Atlantic ocean but still, cold air and a good HIGH are in favored areas. Are there other reasons that boundary layer temperatures are expected to stay warm throughout daytime hours on Sunday given the HIGH to the NW of the Mid-Atlantic?