mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120219/0900Z 69 25003KT 40.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100 120219/1200Z 72 04010KT 38.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120219/1500Z 75 04012KT 36.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 0| 0|100 120219/1800Z 78 03015KT 34.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 28| 0| 72 120219/2100Z 81 01017KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 47| 0| 53 120220/0000Z 84 36014KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 45| 0| 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. Real quick correction those are anomaly correlations .... Autocorrelation is a very different thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. What does the vertical axis represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. Yeah like I said, I look at it for guidance, but with limited products available to most people..I just wouldn't drastically change a forecast based on what the Ukie says. I think the other op models and ensembles fill that void just fine...I know it has scored well in the overall 500mb pattern, but I think it can be unstable at times. It certainly would give me confidence if it was in one model camp or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Real quick correction those are anomaly correlations .... Autocorrelation is a very different thing. Yep you are correct... thats what happens when you type stuff up too quickly Yeah like I said, I look at it for guidance, but with limited products available to most people..I just wouldn't drastically change a forecast based on what the Ukie says. I think the other op models and ensembles fill that void just fine...I know it has scored well in the overall 500mb pattern, but I think it can be unstable at times. It certainly would give me confidence if it was in one model camp or the other. Exactly, The problem is the lack of products available for forecasting which is why most folks considering it an afterthought rather than a creme of the crop model. However, in terms of looking at the overall synoptic pattern, I put a lot of trust in what the UKMET is showing. More than anything, however, I think they are highlighting the large uncertainty that still exists in the forecast, and I think there is still a potential for large swings in either direction in the next 24 hours before all the shortwave features are resolved properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good luck. The only concern down there is temps as has been the concern everywhere south of tooter this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm, I had to remind myself not to be too QPF obsessed. Looking at the 700/850 low tracks for the metros, it looks pretty damn good. Seems as if that is where banding may set up, or so the GFS suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC says YES to SW VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro kinda screws the DC folks Well, that doesn't sound good. Who's got our Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC says YES to SW VA! it says ugh to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, that doesn't sound good. Who's got our Euro pbp? it went way south with precip.. sharp cutoff across the area from near northing at pa/md border to .,25"+ south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The nrn stream keeps the confluence a little stronger this run, despite the slower look to the srn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it says ugh to dc miss to the s&e? man I wish I ncep had 3 hour euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 basically back to it's get to nc coast then jet east plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EURO shunts everything east so DC to BWI area is only grazed. better to the SW of the area like over interior VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it went way south with precip.. sharp cutoff across the area from near northing at pa/md border to .,25"+ south of DC. This is the hiccup wes was talking about. not saying it's wrong but no sense in freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 terrible run....big hit for Richmond. Back in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 terrible run....big hit for Richmond. Back in the valley From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is the hiccup wes was talking about. not saying it's wrong but no sense in freaking out. well if wasnt supported by the UKIE and Canadian, maybe...as it is, it is hard to ignore. Still time to go, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is precisely what we want at this stage in the game. We weren't going to rest in the bullseye clear to the event. Better this than a continuous north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll state it again...better to be on the northern edge than this thing all phased/wrapped up. There's likely to be some minor correction north. Or it could keep going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. every model has gone south today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. Obviously somewhat troubling if your north of VA but its 72 hours out. At 72 hours out in a changing situation I'd rather be in DCA > RIC. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is precisely what we want at this stage in the game. We weren't going to rest in the bullseye clear to the event. Better this than a continuous north trend. no this is not what i want...i want to be in the snow every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Too early to worry about one run, IMO. I'd wait till 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yep you are correct... thats what happens when you type stuff up too quickly Exactly, The problem is the lack of products available for forecasting which is why most folks considering it an afterthought rather than a creme of the crop model. However, in terms of looking at the overall synoptic pattern, I put a lot of trust in what the UKMET is showing. More than anything, however, I think they are highlighting the large uncertainty that still exists in the forecast, and I think there is still a potential for large swings in either direction in the next 24 hours before all the shortwave features are resolved properly. The UKMet is a fine model. However, the difference in skill between the GFS, UKMet, and CMC models is closer than that figure implies. The only model that is better, using this metric, with 95% statistical significance (at least in recent years) is the ECMWF (this is true for many variables, metrics, and levels). Also keep in mind that it's a global, time averaged metric...so it doesn't always necessarily translate to skill for discrete events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 72 hrs away and the models are NOT in full agreement not one legit threat this year ended up exactly as modeled by the consensus 72 hrs out; and correct me if I am wrong, but every threat that had us with a decent event at that time range was wrong, wasn't it? how did 3/1/09 or 12/09 look 3 days out? anyway, it's called a "roller coaster" ride; so sit back and enjoy it and quit barfing all over everyone's screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 definitely wouldn't toss myself off the washington monument yet over that euro run. but one thing to watch out for is growing consensus for a very sharp northern edge to this. so the gradient between steady precip / accumulating snows and virtually nothing at all might be very tight...and factor in a somewhat sloppy antecedent air mass - you'll want to be under the good lift no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JMA looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well if wasnt supported by the UKIE and Canadian, maybe...as it is, it is hard to ignore. Still time to go, of course. I think this is a good time to retrench a bit and dig back into our personal computer model and remember how these things have shaken out in the past. We're still 72 hours and and these types of oscillations are to be expected. Big swings are over but now we deal with the moving bullseye. If I had a gun to my head and had to make the call, i would still lean towards the gfs. No saying this being a weenie either. More often than not, a miller A with this track and evolution does not end up shunted off to the east down in NC. It happens, but not as often as getting significant precip from ric-dca-phl-acy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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