CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The nrn stream keeps the confluence a little stronger this run, despite the slower look to the srn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it says ugh to dc miss to the s&e? man I wish I ncep had 3 hour euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 basically back to it's get to nc coast then jet east plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EURO shunts everything east so DC to BWI area is only grazed. better to the SW of the area like over interior VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it went way south with precip.. sharp cutoff across the area from near northing at pa/md border to .,25"+ south of DC. This is the hiccup wes was talking about. not saying it's wrong but no sense in freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 terrible run....big hit for Richmond. Back in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 terrible run....big hit for Richmond. Back in the valley From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is the hiccup wes was talking about. not saying it's wrong but no sense in freaking out. well if wasnt supported by the UKIE and Canadian, maybe...as it is, it is hard to ignore. Still time to go, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is precisely what we want at this stage in the game. We weren't going to rest in the bullseye clear to the event. Better this than a continuous north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll state it again...better to be on the northern edge than this thing all phased/wrapped up. There's likely to be some minor correction north. Or it could keep going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. every model has gone south today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From one run? Come on dude, get it together. We're more than 72 hours out, geez. Obviously somewhat troubling if your north of VA but its 72 hours out. At 72 hours out in a changing situation I'd rather be in DCA > RIC. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is precisely what we want at this stage in the game. We weren't going to rest in the bullseye clear to the event. Better this than a continuous north trend. no this is not what i want...i want to be in the snow every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Too early to worry about one run, IMO. I'd wait till 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yep you are correct... thats what happens when you type stuff up too quickly Exactly, The problem is the lack of products available for forecasting which is why most folks considering it an afterthought rather than a creme of the crop model. However, in terms of looking at the overall synoptic pattern, I put a lot of trust in what the UKMET is showing. More than anything, however, I think they are highlighting the large uncertainty that still exists in the forecast, and I think there is still a potential for large swings in either direction in the next 24 hours before all the shortwave features are resolved properly. The UKMet is a fine model. However, the difference in skill between the GFS, UKMet, and CMC models is closer than that figure implies. The only model that is better, using this metric, with 95% statistical significance (at least in recent years) is the ECMWF (this is true for many variables, metrics, and levels). Also keep in mind that it's a global, time averaged metric...so it doesn't always necessarily translate to skill for discrete events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 72 hrs away and the models are NOT in full agreement not one legit threat this year ended up exactly as modeled by the consensus 72 hrs out; and correct me if I am wrong, but every threat that had us with a decent event at that time range was wrong, wasn't it? how did 3/1/09 or 12/09 look 3 days out? anyway, it's called a "roller coaster" ride; so sit back and enjoy it and quit barfing all over everyone's screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 definitely wouldn't toss myself off the washington monument yet over that euro run. but one thing to watch out for is growing consensus for a very sharp northern edge to this. so the gradient between steady precip / accumulating snows and virtually nothing at all might be very tight...and factor in a somewhat sloppy antecedent air mass - you'll want to be under the good lift no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JMA looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well if wasnt supported by the UKIE and Canadian, maybe...as it is, it is hard to ignore. Still time to go, of course. I think this is a good time to retrench a bit and dig back into our personal computer model and remember how these things have shaken out in the past. We're still 72 hours and and these types of oscillations are to be expected. Big swings are over but now we deal with the moving bullseye. If I had a gun to my head and had to make the call, i would still lean towards the gfs. No saying this being a weenie either. More often than not, a miller A with this track and evolution does not end up shunted off to the east down in NC. It happens, but not as often as getting significant precip from ric-dca-phl-acy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cosgrove just posted saying this should hit everyone up to Portland ME...and should be a stronger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JMA looks d@mn good actually at the upper levels go here and look at 5H, 7H RH and 850 on 72 Hours (Day 4 comes out a little later I think) http://wxcaster.com/...eign_models.htm EDIT: JMA has a closed 5H Low over Missouri at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cosgrove just posted saying this should hit everyone up to Portland ME...and should be a stronger storm He's basing his northern track on the fact that this system is going to tap into that "subtropical firehose" and Pac ocean...which can bee seen on the WV loop. i just dont see how this gets that far north with that massive vortex sitting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember this same thing happening with the 09-10 storms (not saying there are any real similarities). The edge of best precip kept moving until about 24 hours out. I recall snow maps that kept giving CHO like 4 feet of snow. Became a running joke since the storm always came north and they got sleet. The models struggle with the confluence in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember this same thing happening with the 09-10 storms (not saying there are any real similarities). The edge of best precip kept moving until about 24 hours out. I recall snow maps that kept giving CHO like 4 feet of snow. Became a running joke since the storm always came north and they got sleet. The models struggle with the confluence in the NE. I feel the same way. If the euro pushed this thing too far N I would be pretty bummed. Obviously I don't have the stats but If we totalled up every similar miller A over the last 10 years @ 72 hours that jogged south on the models, I'm willing to bet the final solution ended up further north 3 out of 4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I feel the same way. If the euro pushed this thing too far N I would be pretty bummed. Obviously I don't have the stats but If we totalled up every similar miller A over the last 10 years @ 72 hours that jogged south on the models, I'm willing to bet the final solution ended up further north 3 out of 4 times. agree w/you and Phin with a +NAO, even though not by much, I'd be real surprised there was no drift north in fact, no one should be surprised if were convincing ourselves tomorrow at this time that it will come south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 My question. is how many times besides the Jan 26th even did we miss to the north last year. Seems like there were events where the south cashed in and we didn't as the storm did not trend north. I'm not saying it won't come north as this is a typical variation you see a lot with storms. However, I did find it bothersome that a nuber of SREFS members were suppressed. Those members and the euro are some cause for concern. I don't know what it will do here but do not see this getting into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 My question. is how many times besides the Jan 26th even did we miss to the north last year. Seems like there were events where the south cashed in and we didn't as the storm did not trend north. I'm not saying it won't come north as this is a typical variation you see a lot with storms. However, I did find it bothersome that a nuber of SREFS members were suppressed. Those members and the euro are some cause for concern. I don't know what it will do here but do not see this getting into New England. It's just not a good overall pattern in general, but especially New England. Looking at the big players, it just not a great pattern, but at least you guys have some room to play with. I hope it works out for you. It may not be the worst thing in the world to be on the edge right now,being 72 hrs out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The pattern after this storm looks promising perhaps for late next week into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's just not a good overall pattern in general, but especially New England. Looking at the big players, it just not a great pattern, but at least you guys have some room to play with. I hope it works out for you. It may not be the worst thing in the world to be on the edge right now,being 72 hrs out or so. We have some room but we need decent precip rates so we do need the euro to come north and the GFS to hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I believe the ensembles were better than the OP the past few runs regarding the EURO? As in weren't the ensembles before the 00z run better for our region when the EURO OP was S and E of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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