mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie only goes out to 72 hrs, but here's 6 hr qpf ending at 72 hrs, which I know is early http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest here's 700 mb RH at 72 hrs....she's flat! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Canadian actually went south. If we meld that particular trend with the GFS trend, it seems that the northward progression of precip. is not favorable. This is, once again, a race between cold air advection and lowering dew points as the surface low pressure slides east-northeast away from our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie only goes out to 72 hrs, but here's 6 hr qpf ending at 72 hrs, which I know is early http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest here's 700 mb RH at 72 hrs....she's flat! http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest 500mb looks like it should bring up qpf to us http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 500mb looks like it should bring up qpf to us http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Yes, thanks for not just looking at QPF to determine if it's flat or not. It might not be as good as the GFS, but the H5 pattern would likely bring the moisture into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If GFS and Euro are in sync I am not sure why we'd care about the UKMET and GGEM other than for laughs. I still think suppression is the bigger risk than inland runner, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes, thanks for not just looking at QPF to determine if it's flat or not. It might not be as good as the GFS, but the H5 pattern would likely bring the moisture into DC. Would the UKmet yield an all-snow event, or is the thermal profile the same or similar to the GFS? Trying to see the positives in any future model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 If GFS and Euro are in sync I am not sure why we'd care about the UKMET and GGEM other than for laughs. I still think suppression is the bigger risk than inland runner, though. That's my thought as well, although inland or wrapped up is still on the table. If anything, I'd rather be on the northern edge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Would the UKmet yield an all-snow event, or is the thermal profile the same or similar to the GFS? Trying to see the positives in any future model trends. Well I only see through hr 72, but it probably would not be as good as the GFS since some are saying it only went ENE from hr 72 to hr 96. I couldn't say exactly what ptype would be. Probably a mix to snow I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Based on the model runs so far this storm will most likely end up being like 10/29 or 12/8 for West Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley on up into Maryland. There are many of the same issues, especially poor surface temps and the models are handling it in a similar fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've never cared what the Canadian shows and I am not going to start now...hope the euro holds or improves....Looks like Leesburg flips by hour 74-75 or so...going to be tough by me...I'd love to see this air mass trend colder and I think it willl..I'lll take the under on a max of 54 on Saturday Yea i thnk it will too matt, aside from the dynamic cooling via deform, beforehand were seeing runs trend colder, and that frontrunning northern stream is just finally being ironed out, expect the cold air and confluence to balance out pretty well for us, and theres not a warm layer which is a bonus leaving no doubt about dynamical cooling during the event. I say 51 on SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've never cared what the Canadian shows and I am not going to start now...hope the euro holds or improves....Looks like Leesburg flips by hour 74-75 or so...going to be tough by me...I'd love to see this air mass trend colder and I think it willl..I'lll take the under on a max of 54 on Saturday I'm not a big Canadian or Ukie person, other than to see what it shows. I've seen too many hiccups to actually have confidence in them, at this stage. I actually would not be shocked if you guys touched the low 50s Saturday. It's later that night, that the cold air builds in with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not a big Canadian or Ukie person, other than to see what it shows. I've seen too many hiccups to actually have confidence in them, at this stage. I actually would not be shocked if you guys touched the low 50s Saturday. It's later that night, that the cold air builds in with the high. In fairness I beilieve ukie outscores GFS and is second only to Euro....it's a pretty good model. Completely agreed with Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In fairness I beilieve ukie outscores GFS and is second only to Euro....it's a pretty good model. Completely agreed with Canadian. That may be true but for winter storms the GFS has always been beter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW, GEFS 60 very juicy 1003 L probably 50 miles north of NO... 72 1001 near ATL or slightly SE of there... Precip is 0.1+ DC south... -3ish 850s 84 997 L about 200 miles ENE of HSE... all of LWX CWA in 0.25+ QPF... -5ish 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 since a few people asked, here's the Ukie 850 temps at 72 hrs probably one of the cooler models, but it is likely further south so that makes sense http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW, GEFS 60 very juicy 1003 L probably 50 miles north of NO... 72 1001 near ATL or slightly SE of there... Precip is 0.1+ DC south... -3ish 850s 84 997 L about 200 miles ENE of HSE... all of LWX CWA in 0.25+ QPF... -5ish 850s fast mover thanks to that kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In fairness I beilieve ukie outscores GFS and is second only to Euro....it's a pretty good model. Completely agreed with Canadian. It does jump around quite a bit, and also..we don't have the data available to us, like we do with the GFS and others. I look at it as "guidance", but I wouldn't change a forecast based on what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 since a few people asked, here's the Ukie 850 temps at 72 hrs probably one of the cooler models, but it is likely further south so that makes sense http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest It appears to be slightly cooler than the GFS, perhaps a flatter solution would not yield a colder thermal profile. I think it's interesting that the NAM is almost an all-snow event for DC and Baltimore and the synoptic setup is similar to the GFS. Mabye the global models are not picking up on the dynamics associate with the deepening low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If GFS and Euro are in sync I am not sure why we'd care about the UKMET and GGEM other than for laughs. I still think suppression is the bigger risk than inland runner, though. I've never cared what the Canadian shows and I am not going to start now...hope the euro holds or improves....Looks like Leesburg flips by hour 74-75 or so...going to be tough by me...I'd love to see this air mass trend colder and I think it willl..I'lll take the under on a max of 54 on Saturday That's my thought as well, although inland or wrapped up is still on the table. If anything, I'd rather be on the northern edge right now. I'm not a big Canadian or Ukie person, other than to see what it shows. I've seen too many hiccups to actually have confidence in them, at this stage. I actually would not be shocked if you guys touched the low 50s Saturday. It's later that night, that the cold air builds in with the high. I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of anomaly correlation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120219/0900Z 69 25003KT 40.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100 120219/1200Z 72 04010KT 38.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120219/1500Z 75 04012KT 36.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 0| 0|100 120219/1800Z 78 03015KT 34.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 28| 0| 72 120219/2100Z 81 01017KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 47| 0| 53 120220/0000Z 84 36014KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 45| 0| 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. Real quick correction those are anomaly correlations .... Autocorrelation is a very different thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. What does the vertical axis represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think its absolutely important to regard the GGEM and UKMET, at least with respect to their 500 hPa evolution. In terms of autocorrelation scores, the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and GGEM are clustered very closely together. In fact the GFS is in third place with both the UKMET and ECWMF having significantly highly AC scores. The GGEM is just marginally worse than the GFS. Yeah like I said, I look at it for guidance, but with limited products available to most people..I just wouldn't drastically change a forecast based on what the Ukie says. I think the other op models and ensembles fill that void just fine...I know it has scored well in the overall 500mb pattern, but I think it can be unstable at times. It certainly would give me confidence if it was in one model camp or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Real quick correction those are anomaly correlations .... Autocorrelation is a very different thing. Yep you are correct... thats what happens when you type stuff up too quickly Yeah like I said, I look at it for guidance, but with limited products available to most people..I just wouldn't drastically change a forecast based on what the Ukie says. I think the other op models and ensembles fill that void just fine...I know it has scored well in the overall 500mb pattern, but I think it can be unstable at times. It certainly would give me confidence if it was in one model camp or the other. Exactly, The problem is the lack of products available for forecasting which is why most folks considering it an afterthought rather than a creme of the crop model. However, in terms of looking at the overall synoptic pattern, I put a lot of trust in what the UKMET is showing. More than anything, however, I think they are highlighting the large uncertainty that still exists in the forecast, and I think there is still a potential for large swings in either direction in the next 24 hours before all the shortwave features are resolved properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good luck. The only concern down there is temps as has been the concern everywhere south of tooter this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmm, I had to remind myself not to be too QPF obsessed. Looking at the 700/850 low tracks for the metros, it looks pretty damn good. Seems as if that is where banding may set up, or so the GFS suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC says YES to SW VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro kinda screws the DC folks Well, that doesn't sound good. Who's got our Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EC says YES to SW VA! it says ugh to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, that doesn't sound good. Who's got our Euro pbp? it went way south with precip.. sharp cutoff across the area from near northing at pa/md border to .,25"+ south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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