Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Everyone is a model hugger these days. The potential storm is still in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is rgem north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is rgem north? its more north then anything else so far but still looks like it keeps heavy precip in central VA but it does get light to moderate precip up through the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It looks pretty bad for most of VA on the GFS. .6" QPF and, essentially, all snow is "pretty bad"? What would you call "decent" or "good"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 its more north then anything else so far but still looks like it keeps heavy precip in central VA but it does get light to moderate precip up through the DC area. 54HR is the key panel tonight, so RGEM is not quite in range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 .6" QPF and, essentially, all snow is "pretty bad"? What would you call "decent" or "good"? Temps on the GFS appear to be torching for southern VA, but I didn't look closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is rgem north? Don't kill the messenger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It looks pretty bad for most of VA on the GFS. Looks fine in VA.... a lot of people should do pretty well with this still. There's a lot of moisture, it may not be YBY, but someone should be shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 54HR is the key panel tonight, so RGEM is not quite in range yet. true but judging from the vv's and the h5/h7 at 48hrs its likely the heaviest bands stay just south of DC. Still the RGEM keeps it really close and would argue its still worth paying attention. Even the NAM/GFS/Euro arent so far south that its unrealistic to see a last minute adjustment. Its unlikely but still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks fine in VA.... a lot of people should do pretty well with this still. There's a lot of moisture, it may not be YBY, but someone should be shoveling. I looked at surface temps and they seemed awfully warm in the RIC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Temps on the GFS appear to be torching for southern VA, but I didn't look closely. 0C runs about along 360... the i-64 corridor should be mostly snow. Will have to check the soundings later to see if there's a warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the canadians like snow even more than us maybe why the rgem is always overamped and snowy north trend cometh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the canadians like snow even more than us maybe why the rgem is always overamped and snowy north trend cometh I expect to wake up tomorrow to 06Z runs with snow back into DC and nearing PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I expect to wake up tomorrow to 06Z runs with snow back into DC and nearing PHL. i think it's more than likely too much to overcome here.. further north even moreso tho maybe less low level problems if any gets into elevation. i think maybe DC could under good circumstances work its way back toward .25" or so. i certainly would not bet on it though. without banding etc we're probably pretty cooked as far as anything interesting goes anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 congrats dc Sunday accumulation potential http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sunday-snow-chances-take-a-hit/2012/02/17/gIQAcoJwKR_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 congrats dc Sunday accumulation potential http://www.washingto...oJwKR_blog.html You almost skunked me, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I expect to wake up tomorrow to 06Z runs with snow back into DC and nearing PHL. and your DICK will still be 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 and your DICK will still be 2-4 inches Do you need money to bail your wife out of jail again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 the threat of the end of winter has been looms ing large since about early December Minor corrections made! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Do you need money to bail your wife out of jail again? no she died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Minor corrections made! futility rooting full steam ahead if this one doesn't get us any/much further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 congrats dc Sunday accumulation potential http://www.washingto...oJwKR_blog.html That map is even pretty brutal around Richmond. Didn't I read that someone on this board was planning on traveling and getting a room off 95 near Kings Dominion? For what, a Trace to 2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 no she died RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 2-5 for me and Jeff Lawson is conservative too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If you only end up with like .25, it may be too light to overcome low level issues and maybe its just a minor slushy accumulation. Trust me ..this has happened numerous times so far this non-winter around ALB. I'd want to be under .5" or so band to feel confident of a good snowfall at low elevations. This could be a deal where it's 35 with -SN in DCA and 32 with good SN in RIC. i think it's more than likely too much to overcome here.. further north even moreso tho maybe less low level problems if any gets into elevation. i think maybe DC could under good circumstances work its way back toward .25" or so. i certainly would not bet on it though. without banding etc we're probably pretty cooked as far as anything interesting goes anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 2-5 for me and Jeff Lawson is conservative too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That map is even pretty brutal around Richmond. Didn't I read that someone on this board was planning on traveling and getting a room off 95 near Kings Dominion? For what, a Trace to 2 inches? i didnt create the map though i saw it before it was published. i think in general once you get toward the edges there might be a little less skill as we mainly focus on the dc region. but im sure it was taken into account.. brief look from me now and i'd say the local's map also in this thread is in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well that was based on 18Z ...now maybe I should consider I77/81 and go with Hillsville. Stay tuned.... That map is even pretty brutal around Richmond. Didn't I read that someone on this board was planning on traveling and getting a room off 95 near Kings Dominion? For what, a Trace to 2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If you only end up with like .25, it may be too light to overcome low level issues and maybe its just a minor slushy accumulation. Trust me ..this has happened numerous times so far this non-winter around ALB. I'd want to be under .5" or so band to feel confident of a good snowfall at low elevations. This could be a deal where it's 35 with -SN in DCA and 32 with good SN in RIC. feb is a good time for snow.. getting the airmass into form is much easier than early winter. but we're going to torch tomorrow as far as pre-snowstorm days go. im not going to feel that good about getting light snow even if it happens. we need banding or a sustained period of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You have something to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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