winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's not just data assimilation. What they do is not really a secret. They readily present their work (past, present, and future plans). They are well funded and very focused on the global NWP problem. Thinking more of this moment in time, how remote is the probability that our domestic models could ingest new data and bring the storm a bit north? Up until this evening NAM, meteoroloogists were reminding us that convection issues create modeling artifacts and then it was noted that some deep south upper air data was not acquired. Now that the NAM has the supressed look of the EURO, it seems that the unbiased consensus is the out to sea solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No clue what you mean by "differences in the globals and NCEP". Makes no sense. This is a very unstable pattern...they weren't handling the shortwaves "so much" differently. Small differences in this pattern make large differences in the outcome, especially WRT sensible weather. That's kind...but it is disrespect to the NCEP developers who work on the NAM. Every model is useful if you know how to use them, and it's ignorant IMO to constantly be blathering on about how worthless it is. Back to the weather, I'm not sure why the towel is being thrown in almost 48 hours in advance. Is it more likely than not to miss DC? Yes. Is moving north 100 miles or so in the next 36 hours impossible? Hell no. I will admit I think it stinks too. It does have a few uses (mtn meteorology, some convective events, deep and rapid cyclogenesis with deep PV's, trop folds), but is generally bad. I doubt NCEP feels bad for negative comments, but I do give them a ton of credit for continuing to try and fix the issues with the limited funding/resources they have. They certainly work hard, and NWP is a nod to human ingenuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You're right Matt, it's very unfortunate, not sure what's gone wrong but it's just bad. DTK, what do you think is behind the problems though? It's not like we're talking 36-48 hour lead times...lately the NCEP models seem unable to pin a reasonable forecast position on s/w's at 12 hours. I don't ever remember that happening this consistently until the last few months. Whatever the processes are, the NCEP models can't pin the speed down on the features. This particular case is not a good example. The models (deterministic and ensemble) hinted that it was a particularly volatile forecast paradigm (with large error growth/uncertainty). It's obviously a case we'll look closely at as we try to improve our system. I mean, really, the European is the best global model in the world because of the resources invested in it (past and present). The center was formed to focus efforts on attacking the global NWP problem, and largely, they've succeeded. They have people and computing resources (people do realize they run at over 3x the resolution, no?). They invest heavily in research to improve this specific problem and it pays off. But I'll be blunt, the GFS (and some of the other NOAA) guidance isn't as bad as some want to make it out to be. We are pretty limited in terms of resources (relatively speaking) and have to put out a L O T more in terms of products (with extreme delivery times). We have smart people that are working very hard (and very long hours) to improve our systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Enough with the fighting and attacking folks. Take it to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Awful turn of events of course but this winter, what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What interests me is the interaction of that northern stream energy coming across the great lakes apprx. 12 hrs before before the southern stream gets ramped up. It produces what looks like a cold front on the sim radar of the NAM which slides of the SNE coast... and seems to be helping keep the precip and southern stream system from progressing this way. I have noticed this the past few model runs.. Any mets care to chime in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This particular case is not a good example. The models (deterministic and ensemble) hinted that it was a particularly volatile forecast paradigm (with large error growth/uncertainty). It's obviously a case we'll look closely at as we try to improve our system. I mean, really, the European is the best global model in the world because of the resources invested in it (past and present). The center was formed to focus efforts on attacking the global NWP problem, and largely, they've succeeded. They have people and computing resources (people do realize they run at over 3x the resolution, no?). They invest heavily in research to improve this specific problem and it pays off. But I'll be blunt, the GFS (and some of the other NOAA) guidance isn't as bad as some want to make it out to be. We are pretty limited in terms of resources (relatively speaking) and have to put out a L O T more in terms of products (with extreme delivery times). We have smart people that are working very hard (and very long hours) to improve our systems. The GFS has usually been pretty good. It's had the same issues though in this instance...started for us days ago when we were "hit" with this storm and it was struggling with the speed of the s/w coming down out of BC at 12 hours. Regardless - if there's ever an opportunity for you to do a writeup - models for dummies so to speak, explaining some of the differences, resource differences etc....I know everyone would greatly appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM put me in the bullseye. I'm sure it's wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What interests me is the interaction of that northern stream energy coming across the great lakes apprx. 12 hrs before before the southern stream gets ramped up. It produces what looks like a cold front on the sim radar of the NAM which slides of the SNE coast... and seems to be helping keep the precip and southern stream system from progressing this way. I have noticed this the past few model runs.. Any mets care to chime in ? Read my CWG piece as it is the confluence behind it that is the culprit along with the convection running out along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No clue what you mean by "differences in the globals and NCEP". Makes no sense. This is a very unstable pattern...they weren't handling the shortwaves "so much" differently. Small differences in this pattern make large differences in the outcome, especially WRT sensible weather. That's kind...but it is disrespect to the NCEP developers who work on the NAM. Every model is useful if you know how to use them, and it's ignorant IMO to constantly be blathering on about how worthless it is. Back to the weather, I'm not sure why the towel is being thrown in almost 48 hours in advance. Is it more likely than not to miss DC? Yes. Is moving north 100 miles or so in the next 36 hours impossible? Hell no. I think I have figured out how to use it better than most over the past few years...which is to ignore it....I agree with you about the constant blathering.....I would just prefer it is not discussed at all....I'm sure there are some discrete things it is skilled at....it is better left to mets who understand the model to discuss those things then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thank you, im new to the area i will be sure to pin your CWG site Read my CWG piece as it is the confluence behind it that is the culprit along with the convection running out along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I have figured out how to use it better than most over the past few years...which is to ignore it....I agree with you about the constant blathering.....I would just prefer it is not discussed at all....I'm sure there are some discrete things it is skilled at....it is better left to mets who understand the model to discuss those things then What you're saying is that this model run didn't go the way you wanted it to, so we should never discuss the NAM ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I use the NAM all the time. It is usually very solid on a 24 hour forecast. It will nail down a squall line passage to within hours from 48 hours out... and a number of other things. Knowing what I do about it I feel like we should not even expect it to go head to head with the globals especially at range on a complex low pressure setup? I guess we just do because it's there. No reason to get all nationalistic over it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Didn't the euro first have the storm early in the week? It to changed and I believe it will again as with the NAM and GFS. I think it's truly remarkable for such models to exist in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Didn't the euro first have the storm early in the week? It to changed and I believe it will again as with the NAM and GFS. I think it's truly remarkable for such models to exist in the first place. You're comparing a day 6 output to a day 2 one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Didn't the euro first have the storm early in the week? It to changed and I believe it will again as with the NAM and GFS. I think it's truly remarkable for such models to exist in the first place. I saved this after DT posted it on Feb. 10, which was one week ago. Not bad for the Euro https://www.facebook...&type=1 r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I use the NAM all the time. It is usually very solid on a 24 hour forecast. It will nail down a squall line passage to within hours from 48 hours out... and a number of other things. Knowing what I do about it I feel like we should not even expect it to go head to head with the globals especially at range on a complex low pressure setup? I guess we just do because it's there. No reason to get all nationalistic over it though. It seems to be the best of the big ones at this, from what I've seen. At least for winter ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What you're saying is that this model run didn't go the way you wanted it to, so we should never discuss the NAM ever again. It's been bad all winter. Stick to things you know. So things other than weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I use the NAM all the time. It is usually very solid on a 24 hour forecast. It will nail down a squall line passage to within hours from 48 hours out... and a number of other things. Knowing what I do about it I feel like we should not even expect it to go head to head with the globals especially at range on a complex low pressure setup? I guess we just do because it's there. No reason to get all nationalistic over it though. I have always been impressed with models. I think they are amazing. I guess my gripe is more about the nature of discussion on these boards which is to just follow every single model run and ensemble run and piece of data with no ability to discern the skill or biases. I don't get all pissy over the nam and ggem because I don't like ncep or canadians. But because people have to constantly be reminded about the skill level. Every piece of data is treated like it is equal and should be attributed equal weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 42, slp is in western GA; at 48 on 18z it was in Eastern GA fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 One thing I know is, I will rely 100% on the Euro from here on out. Any threats beyond this debacle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One thing I know is, I will rely 100% on the Euro from here on out. Any threats beyond this debacle? the threat of the end of winter looms large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I have always been impressed with models. I think they are amazing. I guess my gripe is more about the nature of discussion on these boards which is to just follow every single model run and ensemble run and piece of data with no ability to discern the skill or biases. I don't get all pissy over the nam and ggem because I don't like ncep or canadians. But because people have to constantly be reminded about the skill level. Every piece of data is treated like it is equal and should be attributed equal weight. agreed but if a model shows 12" of snow over someone's house they're sure to get excited. a good nam run should only be worth a field goal though in a snow football game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well I guess you are bored since Logan is posting a T for the month. but thanks for clarifying the euro for us I'm quite a bit south of that station, we've had about 13" in the last month. Not great, but it is what it is this winter. Hopefully this one pulls north for you in the last minute. I'm not sure I've ever witnessed a winter where it doesn't matter where you live, north south, west or east...it's just tough to make it snow. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Goodnight all GFS way south and moves due east out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm quite a bit south of that station, we've had about 13" in the last month. Not great, but it is what it is this winter. Hopefully this one pulls north for you in the last minute. I'm not sure I've ever witnessed a winter where it doesn't matter where you live, north south, west or east...it's just tough to make it snow. Good luck. You can stop wishing us luck now. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 00z GFS not as bad for central VA. However the low pressure still goes SE of North Carolina. blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS might even be too south for me. There's a lot of time for correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You can stop wishing us luck now. It's over. Even in VA and NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You can stop wishing us luck now. It's over. i hope you get blasted you deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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