stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Are you guys sure? It just looks slower. And the H5 map compared to 18z/12z looks a bit more amplified IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don't think this is going to end well. Certainly nothing like previous NAM runs. That was expected, but the degree to which it ends poorly is unknown. It doesn't seem that different other than being much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Are you guys sure? It just looks slower. And the H5 map compared to 18z/12z looks a bit more amplified IMO. Through 33 it looks like a trainwreck. But I could be wrong. Looks strung out and junky. More than just convection ruining it here. The southern anomaly is weak and junky too. It doesn't have enough depth to incite stronger cyclogenesis to set in motion feedback cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Are you guys sure? It just looks slower. And the H5 map compared to 18z/12z looks a bit more amplified IMO. Still substantial confluence to your northeast. It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It doesn't seem that different other than being much slower. It definitely is slower too, but I don't know if this one will come back. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NRN jet stream is stronger further east. In other words the kicker is going to kick more this run and it won't be as far north as the previous runs when it does kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm afraid we are going to be shut out on this run- it looks way south and going coastal already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Slower and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm afraid we are going to be shut out on this run- it looks way south and going coastal already. It is just slower, but it still looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 39, low centered over the GA/AL border. could be decent for south of DC I think. At 42 the low moved almost due east. Precip shield almost up to RIC. May end up like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL cant wait to hear what DT says after he posted that the gfs and nam both had 5-6" for D.C. at 18z. At 18z Sunday the precip only makes it to far sw VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's slower but it's the NAM and you all should feel dummer for even caring what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Negative on either, but you're still stupid and socially retarded. haha, tell him how you really feel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It is just slower, but it still looks bad. It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east. The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok, yeah, we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's slower but it's the NAM and you all should feel dummer for even caring what it shows. At 42 hrs the NAM isn't thaaaat bad. Usually within 48hrs on its 0z and 12z cycles it isnt god awful. Meaning you can actually look at it without laughing your azz off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Based on 500mb, that low should not move due east. It should be moving northeast. Wait a little longer before speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east. The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days. Remember when people were like what if tha NAM is right. That was laughably ridiculous, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 42 hrs the NAM isn't thaaaat bad. Usually within 48hrs on its 0z and 12z cycles it isnt god awful. Meaning you can actually look at it without laughing your azz off. Yeah its not that bad, except what is shows is even worse than bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok, yeah, we're done. EURO ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah its not that bad, except what is shows is even worse than bad.... Yeah its def south, but more in line with other models TBH. It'll skirt DC this run similar to what the EURO showed. Decent for western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's slower but it's the NAM and you all should feel dummer for even caring what it shows. In this case I would say no. NAM verbatim means little, but this certainly was a potential solution all along. Weak southern anomaly can be a problem since it is driving nearly all cyclogenesis here, and early feedback is needed for a decent event farther N. I think we saw it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 EURO ftw. I'm glad you came down to our forum with this info. You think the Euro is an ok model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Based on 500mb, that low should not move due east. It should be moving northeast. Wait a little longer before speculation. It is a terrible run and basically a total whiff north of RIC. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 EURO ftw. Heavy precip in Hampton Roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok, yeah, we're done. invoke the ddwxman algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm glad you came down to our forum with this info. You think the Euro is an ok model? Lol. Like I said, people have gotten giddy over the NCEP model suites both here and all over the eastern US, and NCEP basically got their azzes handed to them on s/w handling. This was an initial screwjob for NE, but as someone who saw the handling of the s/w on the models, I figured I should give insight down here, seeing as thats how its trending. It sucks, and people don't wanna hear it, but its the truth that there were signs of this occurring. This winter's been below normal everywhere and its tough to stay level headed when you've been snow starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Remember when people were like what if tha NAM is right. That was laughably ridiculous, no? Human nature, it's been so bad for all of us this winter....I was really pulling for all of you guys. The NAM and GFS have really been out of it with the handling of s/w's. I'm not sure how or why but they've been consistently unable to handle the speed of the various s/w's even with incredibly short leads of 12 or 18 hours. Worse they don't seem to "catch up" but are continually behind the Euro by about a run. Anyway, NAM IMO is now getting nearer the correct solution. I hope some of you get snow. EDIT: GFS will do the same. It was going that way with the s/w's at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east. The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days. but the Euro showed decent snow for DCA/BWI before any of the other models did at this rate, the precip will be so light in VA/WVA that they will have temp problems at least it's seemingly over tonight instead of tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 In this case I would say no. NAM verbatim means little, but this certainly was a potential solution all along. Weak southern anomaly can be a problem since it is driving nearly all cyclogenesis here, and early feedback is needed for a decent event farther N. I think we saw it here. I wasn't really referring to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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