Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Euro has nailed most of this storm, so why stray from that? It has nailed the s/w evolution considerably compared to other models and continues to differ by offering paltry qpf on the order of 0.10" or less for DCA. I could see the precip shield being slightly north of the Euro's current depiction, but not anything like the NAM . Going D-2" at BWI, 2-4" DC, and 4-8" for areas NW of RIC. This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. thanks for your sober insight....we were all expecting an 8-12" event with 1-2"/hr CSI banding and thundersnow until your post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nailed most of what storm? Thanks a pant load toolbag but we don't need your insight. Go back to wishing the storm was as close to you as it will be to us What the hell? Really? Mods need to do their job down here, this is absolutely unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 thanks for your sober insight....we were all expecting an 8-12" event with 1-2"/hr CSI banding and thundersnow until your post.... I was just saying what I was thinking, no need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What the hell? Really? Mods need to do their job down here, this is absolutely unnecessary. Yeah mods, please take care of this for the gentleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah mods, please take care of this for the gentleman. All I said was that the Euro has done well. Didnt say you guys forecasted anything crazy or anything. Just said my call, seeing as I have nothing of interest going on weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 All I said was that the Euro has done well. Didnt say you guys forecasted anything crazy or anything. Just said my call, seeing as I have nothing of interest going on weather wise. My bad...sorry for the insult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 All I said was that the Euro has done well. Didnt say you guys forecasted anything crazy or anything. Just said my call, seeing as I have nothing of interest going on weather wise. There is a thread for 'banter', you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There is a thread for 'banter', you know. It 'was' model talk, before you guys jumped all over me. Cheers to some snow for some snow starved weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 My bad...sorry for the insult. It's cool. Good luck on the snow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's cool. Good luck on the snow incoming. You make a good point about the Euro. But at what point do you take a NAM/GFS combo over the king of all models. NAM/GFS is fairly constant with their solutions...same for Euro with a south drift. Time will tell I suppose but if the NAM doesn't budge at 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You make a good point about the Euro. But at what point do you take a NAM/GFS combo over the king of all models. NAM/GFS is fairly constant with their solutions...same for Euro with a south drift. Time will tell I suppose but if the NAM doesn't budge at 00z... The Euro has had a handle on the evolution of the s/w pattern and yes, the NAM/GFS have been consistent, but the NAM get 4-6" to DC and the gfs get 2-4". I think the GFS solution is buyable, but has a strong bust potential with the 500mb pattern shunting everything south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Euro has had a handle on the evolution of the s/w pattern and yes, the NAM/GFS have been consistent, but the NAM get 4-6" to DC and the gfs get 2-4". I think the GFS solution is buyable, but has a strong bust potential with the 500mb pattern shunting everything south and east. Are you claiming the NAM/GFS/EURO don't have reverse bust potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good radiosonde data from EPZ which differs from the 06Z guess...should give a better representation of the speed and shape of the trough for 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good radiosonde data from EPZ which differs from the 06Z guess...should give a better representation of the speed and shape of the trough for 00Z. What is EPZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Are you claiming the NAM/GFS/EURO don't have reverse bust potential? Well someone on the north side of of this will have some decent frontogenesis but with the 500mb pattern shunting this SE it could end up looking like 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What do you usually get in northern Va with a +AO and a +NAO during a snow threat? A fast moving storm and not a lot of hard cold air. Yes it can snow but not that much unless your in the bulls eye/jackpot spot. Yes there is time for things to change, but I go with the odds. This will be another minor event in northern Va. 2"-4"in max. La Nina winters usually stink, just like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What is EPZ? Sorry. El Paso, TX upper air site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What do you usually get in northern Va with a +AO and a +NAO during a snow threat? A fast moving storm and not a lot of hard cold air. Yes it can snow but not that much unless your in the bulls eye/jackpot spot. Yes there is time for things to change, but I go with the odds. This will be another minor event in northern Va. 2"-4"in max. La Nina winters usually stink, just like this winter. You mean the first minor event of the season. 2-4 would be pretty awesome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I guess I should also add that Corpus Christi had ground equip problems and couldn't get a balloon up in two tries...so no 00Z sounding from them. There's pretty good coverage down there and the flow is fairly uni-directional in that area so might not matter too much. EDIT: I see data up to 825 mb before the flight terminated...so it's not nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What do you usually get in northern Va with a +AO and a +NAO during a snow threat? A fast moving storm and not a lot of hard cold air. Yes it can snow but not that much unless your in the bulls eye/jackpot spot. Yes there is time for things to change, but I go with the odds. This will be another minor event in northern Va. 2"-4"in max. La Nina winters usually stink, just like this winter. While that technically may be true the NAO and AO are extremely close to neutral and were recently negative for some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I guess I should also add that Corpus Christi had ground equip problems and couldn't get a balloon up in two tries...so no 00Z sounding from them. There's pretty good coverage down there and the flow is fairly uni-directional in that area so might not matter too much. EDIT: I see data up to 825 mb before the flight terminated...so it's not nothing... OK, so if the runs suck we can toss 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 chris21, Your right too, but I am going with the odds. If the NAO was negative, then we all would have more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 OK, so if the runs suck we can toss 'em? Do whatever you need to do! Brownsville and Corpus Christi are pretty close together and the pattern down there isn't very complex attm so shouldn't be an issue (famous last words). If they don't get their issues fixed for 12Z that might not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Euro has had a handle on the evolution of the s/w pattern and yes, the NAM/GFS have been consistent, but the NAM get 4-6" to DC and the gfs get 2-4". I think the GFS solution is buyable, but has a strong bust potential with the 500mb pattern shunting everything south and east. Yes you are right, it is a tough storm to forecast since the bust potential is high. Positive tilt waves are never terribly fun to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes you are right, it is a tough storm to forecast since the bust potential is high. Positive tilt waves are never terribly fun to deal with. Right. And it impacts millions of people who haven't had to deal with a lot of snow this season. Personally, I hope you guys get a little somethin', somethin' there. As bad as NE has had it, you guys have had it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Right. And it impacts millions of people who haven't had to deal with a lot of snow this season. Personally, I hope you guys get a little somethin', somethin' here. As bad as NE has had it, you guys have had it worse. I actually live in Nebraska. We have had it crappy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I actually live in Nebraska. We have had it crappy too. LOL my bad it's been a long day for me, big Atmospheric Thermodynamics test today, been up since 6. But, yeah its been tough just about everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 00z nam is coming out slower than 18z with the S/W. Only good if you like supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don't think this is going to end well. Certainly nothing like previous NAM runs. That was expected, but the degree to which it ends poorly is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nam sucks, it's all over,haha this winter sucks! Come on spring!!! Way less amplified, looks to be more confluence. King euro This was definitely a possibility given the 500mb setup as I stated before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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