JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 995 Low off of HSE at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS should be good. Adam says Deform sets up over DC at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably pointing out details too fine at this stage but storm is a bit slower and 850's further south than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is really shaping up to be a pretty classic miller a. As always north and west of the cities should see less mixing/rain. Looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Big hit for VA again. Even down to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS should be good. Adam says Deform sets up over DC at 84 It does. Big hit for the foothills to the west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NIce run. Track is just fine. Heaviest precip sets up pretty much where we want it. Somebody in WV is prob getting a foot +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically from 18z to 22-23z or so..it's snowing pretty darn hard in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd love to slow this thing down by 6 hours True, but we can get some good accums from about 22z till the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The clown maps are going to be even worse than normal with the borderline nature of this event, so ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Clown Maps show quite a bit even if bad - the 4-8" call N&W of suburbs that people mentioned looks possible. I suspect the 3-6" to be more common, but not too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 we are done by 6pm... Nevermind..doing comparison/flip with 6z and 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The clown maps are going to be even worse than normal with the borderline nature of this event, so ignore them. Are those things ever worth looking at for analysis purposes or just fun to look at? I never take them seriously. I've lived here along time as many others. It's not terribly difficult to look at the surface, 850, and 500 panels and pretty much know what the model would imply. The most recent GFS is telling me that if I didn't have to battle any temp issues, 4-8 or 6-10 would be reasonable. Gotta cut that in half here. 3-5 just n&w of the cities? Seems ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I could find a few things I'd love to be different, but after this winter, I'd take the GFS verbatim and call it a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically from 18z to 22-23z or so..it's snowing pretty darn hard in the city. If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks good for a lot of you folks. best of luck. folks out toward i-81 seem like they are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. 12 hr total qpf beginning 18Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=090&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man. The shenendaoh valley gets hit hard on this run. But south of me and trixie for the heaviest stuff. Now we just wait for the inevitable north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. I could see it snowing a bit earlier than that, but it might be a 34F snow..or something like that. Once it flips, it should come down good..but surface temps will may be a slight issue at first, anyways. With any elevation...even 300'..it will make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GGEM is basically a whiff north of RIC 12z SUN has 1006 L basically at FL/AL/MS borders all meet 00z MON has 1005 L offshore of NC/SC border by 50 miles or so 12z MON 996 L way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still have some time on the clock, so we'll see how the next 24 hrs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gotta stay optimistic about temps here. Subtle shifts can really make us smile (or cry). Pretty much a lock we get some rain at the beginning. Can't really get around that. Once we hit nowcasting time we'll have a much better idea of how much we're going to lose before the changeover. GFS showing 40's at onset. What if we are say.....38 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 With mitchnicks north trend, south of okv to mtn looks to be the bullseye by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Canadian actually went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gotta stay optimistic about temps here. Subtle shifts can really make us smile (or cry). Pretty much a lock we get some rain at the beginning. Can't really get around that. Once we hit nowcasting time we'll have a much better idea of how much we're going to lose before the changeover. GFS showing 40's at onset. What if we are say.....38 or so? my only concern is that realistically, there aren't many storms that i can think of where we do well with a rain to snow changover (last year was one of the better ones i can remember like that)...but given the way this winter has gone, it would be great to see a couple of inches...i'll take it and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Canadian actually went south. Ukie just like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I could see it snowing a bit earlier than that, but it might be a 34F snow..or something like that. Once it flips, it should come down good..but surface temps will may be a slight issue at first, anyways. With any elevation...even 300'..it will make a difference. Surface dews on the GFS are just plain ugly. Still around 35 at 15z. Would be great to have the GFS precip and NAM temps (/banter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie just like it. far south? both of them same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just looked at soundings for DC and maybe hour 76-77 or so I think we flip....by 18Z we are solid snow and 33-34 That's how I see it, on the GFS as well. FWIW ukie imo wasn't as bad as the Canadian..just by looking at the H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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