ohleary Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is still over a day to go.....watch the models flip back tonight or even tomorrow afternoon, i really dont think we will know for sure until Saturday Sunday Night........ fyp As has been said, there isn't much flipping going on now, just small changes where a small change means alot with the qpf gradient the way it is on the north side. I have a feeling 00Z will narrow things down enough to either make us in the MA fairly happy or Ji suicidal. EDIT: Running WSR in the Gulf for the 18/12Z runs so at the latest by then, I think we'll have a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS refuses to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS refuses to give up. It held pretty well. Somewhere in the .35 to ,45 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS refuses to give up. A touch wetter actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Half inch line is farther north, not too far from DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It held pretty well. Somewhere in the .35 to ,45 range. A touch wetter actually. Yeah the srn burbs do well in this too. It wouldn't really cause me to jump for joy unless the 00z runs tried to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah the srn burbs do well in this too. It wouldn't really cause me to jump for joy unless the 00z runs tried to improve. Anything that doesn't trend to the Euro is a cause for a sigh of relief. I see the play by play was in the banter thread now. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah the srn burbs do well in this too. It wouldn't really cause me to jump for joy unless the 00z runs tried to improve. DCA sounding is pretty scarey as the temp is still 2C at 00Z so it's saying the temp might be 35 or 36 unless the precip really comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA sounding is pretty scarey as the temp is still 2C at 00Z so it's saying the temp might be 35 or 36 unless the precip really comes down. We were never going to have a great surface. We just need snow falling on snow! I guess I'm not too concerned with this sounding overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA sounding is pretty scarey as the temp is still 2C at 00Z so it's saying the temp might be 35 or 36 unless the precip really comes down. Your the expert. I think it's time for you to make a forecast. Pretend it's the 1970s and you don't have this model data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We were never going to have a great surface. We just need snow falling on snow! I guess I'm not too concerned with this sounding overall. If the models stay similar the nam better resolution ight trump the GFS in that regard. We still need a thump period and to get in a northern band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is a chance the models don't trend north but the storm just does it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Your the expert. I think it's time for you to make a forecast. Pretend it's the 1970s and you don't have this model data That would be pretty foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18Z RGEM at hour 54: MSLP Dominant 3-hour p-type Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 does the rgem run on the intellivision platform or the atari 2600? I mean seriously. The first map looks doesn't even look like a computer put a hand on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Bob, chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 does the rgem run on the intellivision platform or the atari 2600? I mean seriously. The first map looks doesn't even look like a computer put a hand on it. A model and it's post-processed products are two separate things. I'm sure you can make beautiful imagery out if the rgem's fields if you wanted. EDIT: Plus these images look blown up larger than their native resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The RGEM runs past 48HR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The RGEM runs past 48HR? It's the Cgex...Canadien version of dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Bob, chill. A model and it's post-processed products are two separate things. I'm sure you can make beautiful imagery out if the rgem's fields if you wanted. i shouldn't be posting crap in the model thread but I'm totally chillin' and ready for my first cold one and i think canada should want to make some beautiful imagery because it's hard to take a model seriously when it looks like my 7 year old broke out the crayolas during recess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's a lot of crappy SREF members in here (15z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's unbelievable- you'd think this storm is moving into a desert air mass.. The RGEM LP center in SE TN at 48 hrs and it cant get a flake in here til then. This storm has high bust potential either way if it's the convective factor that's causing the wierdness in the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The RGEM runs past 48HR? For the 06Z/18Z runs, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 For the 06Z/18Z runs, yes. I thought it's only to 48hrs. Unless it's some weenie truncation after t+48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro has nailed most of this storm, so why stray from that? It has nailed the s/w evolution considerably compared to other models and continues to differ by offering paltry qpf on the order of 0.10" or less for DCA. I could see the precip shield being slightly north of the Euro's current depiction, but not anything like the NAM . Going D-2" at BWI, 2-4" DC, and 4-8" for areas NW of RIC. This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Euro has nailed most of this storm, so why stray from that? It has nailed the s/w evolution considerably compared to other models and continues to differ by offering paltry qpf on the order of 0.10" or less for DCA. I could see the precip shield being slightly north of the Euro's current depiction, but not anything like the NAM . Going D-2" at BWI, 2-4" DC, and 4-8" for areas NW of RIC. This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. There it is, folks! Snow won't stick if it is warm prior to the storm! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. If you didn't graduate at the top of your class, your teachers should be smacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Euro has nailed most of this storm, so why stray from that? It has nailed the s/w evolution considerably compared to other models and continues to differ by offering paltry qpf on the order of 0.10" or less for DCA. I could see the precip shield being slightly north of the Euro's current depiction, but not anything like the NAM . Going D-2" at BWI, 2-4" DC, and 4-8" for areas NW of RIC. This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. Nailed most of what storm? Thanks a pant load toolbag but we don't need your insight. Go back to wishing the storm was as close to you as it will be to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If you didn't graduate at the top of your class, your teachers should be smacked. There it is, folks! Snow won't stick if it is warm prior to the storm! LOL LOL bashing already? Let me know how all this works out for ya! I honestly hope you guys get hammered, but I just don't see it. good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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