87storms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The run is nearly not identical to 12Z. Can you dumb correct weenies please stop with this crap continue posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Through 60 hours we still have 5-6 inches for DC on the NAM.... Might be overdone but not that different from the 12Z run for BWI, that's almost identical to 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think what is interesting with the nam is the changes in the 2 areas of precip. Of course, the one to the N&W is the most important for us. 18z has that area less robust and that's why we have less precip. However, it looked a little better when it was over TN than the 12z run. I hate seeing it kinda fizzle and shrink as it exits wv and goes across our area. The area to the E of the slp is also less robust. I don't know enough to expand much here but I assume we hope for less convection in the warm sector and that appeared to what happened with the 18z run. The issue in your first paragraph might also be associated energy transferring to the Coastal low from the Tenn Valley s/w as Coastal moves out. But yeah, hope for less convection too. Since it is going to be too warm in my region at lower elevations, hoping y'all get slammed up there. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5speed6 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is starting to look like a sligtly less-amped version of the early March, 2009 storm. I'm sure somebody will quickly chime in to tell me I'm way off-base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 for BWI, that's almost identical to 6Z Please mark my words: "Models should shift north at 0Z tonight and we will be back in the snow zone, 4-8 inches for D.C. is my call right now and I will not flip-flop with the models" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm an old f@rt, so I still like to look at thicknesses and the 540 line is SW/NE along BWI/DCA line at 48 hrs I think that means a warm layer for a lot of people south of that line outside the mts, but maybe the sounding would prove me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Please mark my words: "Models should shift north at 0Z tonight and we will be back in the snow zone, 4-8 inches for D.C. is my call right now and I will not flip-flop with the models" sounds like you're headed for a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 for BWI, that's almost identical to 6Z I think people are over-analyzing what would have been seen as a simple run-to-run wiggle in precip if we weren't all scared over the Euro. The NAM held. It is likely wrong, but it held from 12Z. Now on to the GFS and the real models at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SREFs look similar but are south a little, a little less bullish for the 8+probs as well. But look good for 3-6" for south VA and even northern NC. I wish there was a way to scroll south on the map...the fact that you can't shows that this far south shouldn't be getting snow. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 why is there a greater likelihood of 12"+ than 8"+ on the sref map? edit: n/m must be an error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 sounds like you're headed for a bust I very well could be. If the 0Z models don't shift I will change my forecast and stand up, raise my hand, and admit that I was wrong. But until then, I will hold my ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Weather53 still likes a 4" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Weather53 still likes a 4" event For DCA? I am sure many could accept that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 For DCA? I am sure many could accept that http://fortysouthwx.com/index.php?/topic/2446-what-we-have-this-time-2pm-friday-updated-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://fortysouthwx....dated-forecast/ Thanks. Was never quite sure with the baro stuff with him, but good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Weather53 still likes a 4" event Seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Seems about right especially when you consider his cold and snowy bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Should we expect models to come into better agreement when we actually get a slp in place along the Gulf Coast? Aren't the models acting similar to how they would with a tropical system's path before an LLC is well formed? Meaning if the slp forms a bit north of where a particular model predicts, could we see that model shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Do people ever ever ever learn? Its crazy at this point to give up or make statements like "its over", or if 0z doesnt trend north....it could stay south 0z and 12z and then jump north during the day tomorrow on the guidance. Models have done this time and again. It could very well stay south, and in a nina there is an increased risk of that, but we all have seen this before and know it could come back north at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Luray VA with a w-s-watch for Sunday but first, 55 degrees tomorrow...wow http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.67371706140244&lon=-78.46092224121094&site=lwx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I remember last year there was a storm in late Feb that was suppose to give us 5 inches in the DCA area...there was a shift N at the last minute and it got HGR and Fredrick, MD while we got mostly sleet and no snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 especially when you consider his cold and snowy bias Goes well with your warm and wet bias. Total now cast event all convection dependent, best of luck, look forward to some of your best pics. Heavy Wet snow with dry fluff powder coating makes for some beautiful photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Goes well with your warm and wet bias. Total now cast event all convection dependent, best of luck, look forward to some of your best pics. Heavy Wet snow with dry fluff powder coating makes for some beautiful photos. I think you mean my almost always right bias. Same sort of thing around here unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I remember last year there was a storm in late Feb that was suppose to give us 5 inches in the DCA area...there was a shift N at the last minute and it got HGR and Fredrick, MD while we got mostly sleet and no snow accumulation yep, and a lot more we can't even keep track of them but occasionally they stay south when progged to stay south gotta' hope odds work in our favor this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is still over a day to go.....watch the models flip back tonight or even tomorrow afternoon, i really dont think we will know for sure until Saturday Night........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think you mean my almost always right bias. Same sort of thing around here unfortunately. Hard to wrong with a warm wet bias this year dude. Hopefully you are wrong this time. Jaded much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hard to wrong with a warm wet bias this year dude. Hopefully you are wrong this time. Jaded much? a little.. tho im not "calling" for no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg 18z RGEM looks promising at 48 hours. Hard to see how thats a miss from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 18z RGEM (only goes out to 48) 36 hrs -- 1003 mb L SW MS 42 hrs -- 999 mb L NW AL 48 hrs -- 998 mb extreme SE TN with what looks to be a transfer going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 18z RGEM (only goes out to 48) 36 hrs -- 1003 mb L SW MS 42 hrs -- 999 mb L NW AL 48 hrs -- 998 mb extreme SE TN with what looks to be a transfer going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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