Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 precip shield to the nw of slp @ 39 is more robust than 12z. decent sign i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 precip shield to the nw of slp @ 39 is more robust than 12z. decent sign i guess. Agree, out to hr 42 now looks stronger and northwest so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is definitely north of 12z at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like it's gonna be a hit again for the whole area based on 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 precip shield to the nw of slp @ 39 is more robust than 12z. decent sign i guess. thicknesses are higher too a lot of rain in VA thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM is a little stronger and gets a tad more precip into the area through 48HR. Definitely not anything like the Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And the low jumps to Hattaras just like 12z. Virtually identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Precip up into PA almost to Harrisburg on this run. NAM still looks good. Wish it was the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like it's gonna be a hit again for the whole area based on 45. Not good.. precip shield weaker but no further south on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Is the low in nova Scotia moving out faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 definitely drier overall for DC and points north The run is nearly identical to 12Z. Can you dumb weenies please stop with this crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam might be slowly catching on.. precip is lower on north end. what a donkey model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 To DC and NOVA, echo what Phineas said. Just shut it and let the run finish. There is one more panel to 60 to finish the comparison, but what it has for right now is damn near the same from the 12z run. For whatever that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 definitely drier overall for DC and points north LOL.... splitting hairs arent you? NAM is snow porn for all. It holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM moves the coastal out faster. Its about 100 miles NE of 12Z at 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam might be slowly catching on.. precip is lower on north end. what a donkey model. The evolution is basically identical to 12Z. It certainly is way different than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So we have euro the slower solution and nam the faster solution. Looks like that leaves GFS to take the middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Honestly it does look drier, not sure why the negative response Phineas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps. I agree. It is a little drier on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps. The NAM was too wet to start with, I think we knew that. Unless I am reading the maps incorrectly, this doesn't appear to be anything like the Euro. I guess the SECS option might be off the NAM table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The evolution is basically identical to 12Z. It certainly is way different than the Euro. the tracks are not that different really. the main difference is how they handle the northern side of the precip. it's possible the nam is just too wet and overall not that far off i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps. It did get cut in the LWX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DCA is prob 0.50-0.55 EZF near 0.75 BWI/IAD near 0.45ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam might be slowly catching on.. precip is lower on north end. what a donkey model. That's my take on it. What's interesting to note is that in the critical 40ish hour area the Euro is slower with both lobes of vorticity versus the american models. The 18z NAM just came in slower on the northern piece, faster on the southern at 18z. So it's not really moving "towards" the Euro in that sense. It's actually breaking towards a solution that would allow for the jump to occur with an associated sag in the top end of the precip before it actually lifts north a bit and knicks Nantucket. I really put no stock in the NAM, but it's "interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Through 60 hours we still have 5-6 inches for DC on the NAM.... Might be overdone but not that different from the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps. I think you're right as the axis of heaviest snow moved south by about 50 miles. SW VA gets hammered whereas the previous run only dropped about 2 inches of snow (model output was about 4.7 in with 1.9 inches falling at marginal temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the tracks are not that different really. the main difference is how they handle the northern side of the precip. it's possible the nam is just too wet and overall not that far off i guess. They must really handle the precip differently because the Euro gives us squat and the NAM gives us .5 inches. That's a solid spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think what is interesting with the nam is the changes in the 2 areas of precip. Of course, the one to the N&W is the most important for us. 18z has that area less robust and that's why we have less precip. However, it looked a little better when it was over TN than the 12z run. I hate seeing it kinda fizzle and shrink as it exits wv and goes across our area. The area to the E of the slp is also less robust. I don't know enough to expand much here but I assume we hope for less convection in the warm sector and that appeared to what happened with the 18z run. I guess it's a pretty good run though. I'm sure there will be continuous changes to the size and strength of the shield to the NW. There's still time for it to be better for us but that's prob more weenie hope than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They must really handle the precip differently because the Euro gives us squat and the NAM gives us .5 inches. That's a solid spread. the nam has a lot more emphasis on precip on the north side of the low especially as its in the south. i think that allows for it to eject into the area better. the nam is north of the euro through about GA then it looks like it has a bit slower coastal jump which might also allow for precip to get further north. plus the euro still does the heavy east jog once at the coast where the nam is more ne. but the evolutions are not entirely different.. i guess you can't totally throw the nam out but it's hard to lean toward it still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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