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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps.

The NAM was too wet to start with, I think we knew that. Unless I am reading the maps incorrectly, this doesn't appear to be anything like the Euro. I guess the SECS option might be off the NAM table now.

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The evolution is basically identical to 12Z. It certainly is way different than the Euro.

the tracks are not that different really. the main difference is how they handle the northern side of the precip. it's possible the nam is just too wet and overall not that far off i guess.

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nam might be slowly catching on.. precip is lower on north end. what a donkey model.

That's my take on it. What's interesting to note is that in the critical 40ish hour area the Euro is slower with both lobes of vorticity versus the american models. The 18z NAM just came in slower on the northern piece, faster on the southern at 18z. So it's not really moving "towards" the Euro in that sense. It's actually breaking towards a solution that would allow for the jump to occur with an associated sag in the top end of the precip before it actually lifts north a bit and knicks Nantucket.

I really put no stock in the NAM, but it's "interesting"

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I guess I'll be dumb weenie. it looks to me like it has cut the precip by .25 as it was .75 and now it just under .50. I'm not sure that means much and maybe I pulled a DT and looked at the wrong maps.

I think you're right as the axis of heaviest snow moved south by about 50 miles. SW VA gets hammered whereas the previous run only dropped about 2 inches of snow (model output was about 4.7 in with 1.9 inches falling at marginal temps)

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the tracks are not that different really. the main difference is how they handle the northern side of the precip. it's possible the nam is just too wet and overall not that far off i guess.

They must really handle the precip differently because the Euro gives us squat and the NAM gives us .5 inches. That's a solid spread.

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I think what is interesting with the nam is the changes in the 2 areas of precip. Of course, the one to the N&W is the most important for us. 18z has that area less robust and that's why we have less precip. However, it looked a little better when it was over TN than the 12z run. I hate seeing it kinda fizzle and shrink as it exits wv and goes across our area.

The area to the E of the slp is also less robust. I don't know enough to expand much here but I assume we hope for less convection in the warm sector and that appeared to what happened with the 18z run.

I guess it's a pretty good run though. I'm sure there will be continuous changes to the size and strength of the shield to the NW. There's still time for it to be better for us but that's prob more weenie hope than anything else.

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They must really handle the precip differently because the Euro gives us squat and the NAM gives us .5 inches. That's a solid spread.

the nam has a lot more emphasis on precip on the north side of the low especially as its in the south. i think that allows for it to eject into the area better. the nam is north of the euro through about GA then it looks like it has a bit slower coastal jump which might also allow for precip to get further north. plus the euro still does the heavy east jog once at the coast where the nam is more ne. but the evolutions are not entirely different.. i guess you can't totally throw the nam out but it's hard to lean toward it still.

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