Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Help a dummy out here. What are they saying? In extremely simple terms, there are alot of small features in the atmosphere in this setup. Small shifts with any of them can cause large changes in the modeled evolution of the storm. Not getting everything just right at initialization of the model run can exaggerate the error as you go forward in time. Error is probably a bad term to use because it's very difficult (or impossible) to replicate the atmosphere perfectly when initializing a model run. Think of it like an NCAA basketball pool. It's incredibly hard to pick all the winners in the field when there are 64 teams. It's much easier to get the final right. The current pattern has 64 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They favor the GFS but basically they are sayign the models will have a tough time because this storm will have a lot of convection and that displaces energy and can change the course of the low Yes, classic DMC issues. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I kind of discussed it to you in post 720 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1381549 But in short, how moist convection develops across the warm sector in positive tilt waves can have large influences in how energy is distributed during cyclone development. Large MCS's that develop along the warm front can displace large amounts of energy away from the cyclone center/upper shortwave/anomaly which can inhibit northward moisture transport as well as change advective processes which also play a role in cyclone development. Negative tilt troughs/waves are not affected nearly as much in a negative manner like this, and in fact, usually are enhanced by the presence of deep, moist convection since it has a tendency to "feed" directly into the upper cyclone which results in rapid intensification/bombing. Good post. Model MCS in the wrong place can also screw things up in terms of how fast the storm translates ewrd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 15z SREFs have the 0.25 line now over DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We could pull this one out. There is still uncertainty with the system and HPC has to ride the data to its logical conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 there is hope for you guys * IMPORTANT COMMENT ON EURO 12Z EMSEMBLE ** it is WETTER and has 0.25" as far north as md pa border and its cold with a lot of heavy precip over central and eastern VA 7PM Sunday evening-- all of it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 there is hope for you guys * IMPORTANT COMMENT ON EURO 12Z EMSEMBLE ** it is WETTER and has 0.25" as far north as md pa border and its cold with a lot of heavy precip over central and eastern VA 7PM Sunday evening-- all of it snow Really? Where did he pull this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 there is hope for you guys * IMPORTANT COMMENT ON EURO 12Z EMSEMBLE ** it is WETTER and has 0.25" as far north as md pa border and its cold with a lot of heavy precip over central and eastern VA 7PM Sunday evening-- all of it snow I don't know where he is getting that. Earthsat is only out to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 15z SREFs have the 0.25 line now over DCA Where was it before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah i was about to ask where he gets it so early too. not to mention the euro ens mean has been running way wetter than the op for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't know where he is getting that. Earthsat is only out to 36 Clearly he has access to the control run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i split midlos post on wsw.. let's take that discussion to a different spot, http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32748-short-term-obsdiscussion-no-model-talk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 umm the ens looks almost exactly like the op.. what's dt smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 umm the ens looks almost exactly like the op.. what's dt smoking? Even the QPF is almost exactly the same, with the tight northern gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Maybe someone read an old image.. only explanation I know? But that is just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DT would'nt say it unless he thought that was the case about the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 umm the ens looks almost exactly like the op.. what's dt smoking? I kept double checking to see if I was missing something. I was Precip over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Even the QPF is almost exactly the same, with the tight northern gradient. he must have been looking at 0z as it matches up with that idea and 12z wasnt even out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam is going to be good for you guys down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 nam is going to be good for you guys down there Yeah... NAM vs EURO to the bitter end. I've seen this movie before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, NAM looks slightly more amplified. Ugh. Why do we have to have the NAM on our side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 EE rule not in effect? Why cant we ignore the euro...its the outlier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 EE rule not in effect? Why cant we ignore the euro...its the outlier lol How is it the outlier when the GFS is closer to it than the NAM? the NAM is the outlier here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Meh... if we can't get anything of note from this storm, we may as well go right to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, NAM looks slightly more amplified. Ugh. Why do we have to have the NAM on our side? Poor NAM. Year after year it gets bashed. Does it never improve its performance from previous years? Wasn't it OK for JAN 26TH last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks the same at the surface through 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey I'm driving home from FL and will make it to southern VA later Sunday ...then my cousins place in Silver Spring Monday. The question is where shoufd I stay on Sunday night to see the most snow depth...probably be tapering off around then as I hit it. I could take 95 or I could take the alternate 77/81 and cut over to DC further north.... Yeah, NAM looks slightly more amplified. Ugh. Why do we have to have the NAM on our side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks the same at the surface through 39. Sim radar is almost identical. Low is slightly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks the same at the surface through 39. Looks to be slightly more northwest on the 18z at 39 compared to the 12z at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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