weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS and UKMET are near whiffs. Excellent hit for RIC but not much for the DC/BW metro and north. I doubt that happens though it is a cause of concern given the Euro at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The biggest difference is the track of the surface low vs 6z. It's a bit slower but more importantly is further s&w. 12z backed off on the heavy precip to the n&w too. It's a game of inches for sure but this run took a couple inches away. (lol- unintended pun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 it's usually pretty good about 6 hours after the fact. seriously.. it's a travesty of a model in most instances. it has its strengths tho.. like keeping people occurpied until the gfs. dont let Ryan Mahue hear you say this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like DC total precip would be under 0.5 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is a tick S and drier, but it actually isn't that different overall even though it gets there in a vastly different manner. The difference I see, is up in New England. Heights are flatter and more west to even west-northwest flow helping to flatten the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How the convective schemes handle the convection will play a big role in where the models put their lows and that convection may or may not be in the wrong spot. That's the big rub. Yeah agreed, I will probably give more consideration to the convective environment here the next day, it is going to be crucial. SPC outlooks will also be worth reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks a little error laden. why? because it does not show enough snow for your back yard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like DC total precip would be under 0.5 this run. About 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The difference I see, is up in New England. Heights are flatter and more west to even west-northwest flow helping to flatten the height field. Yeah synoptically slightly different, but also early on w.r.t. convective initiation and the diabatic low along the front. It does influence the early cyclone low development by even a few hours...and in this feedback scenario that 3 hr difference makes a difference on advective processes/shortwave ridge building, etc. I think the latter may be another reason why it looks flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 About 0.3 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like the EURO run from last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The new Ukie has .25 in DC and maybe like .10 in Baltimore and nothing north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I've referenced it, so have others, but remember that the move north with the precip in jan 2010 didn't even show until 24 hours out. In fact at 36 hours all models abandoned us. This may end up better than we think. im not sure if someone mentioned it but this was the top analog storm for last night's 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah synoptically slightly different, but also early on w.r.t. convective initiation and the diabatic low along the front. It does influence the early cyclone low development by even a few hours...and in this feedback scenario that 3 hr difference makes a difference on advective processes/shortwave ridge building, etc. I think the latter may be another reason why it looks flatter. I'm pretty big on latent heat having some effects on the height field, but I think models have a good handle right now. Pretty good guidance agreement, and it's not like convection will force the low 100 miles north. I think where people will nit pick, are the 30-40 mile changes that can happen as a result from things like diabatic heating.latent heat release..all of which will have an effect on downstream ridging. But I think we are converging on a general solution.give or take 30-50 miles on either side of these current solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm pretty big on latent heat having some effects on the height field, but I think models have a good handle right now. Pretty good guidance agreement, and it's not like convection will force the low 100 miles north. I think where people will nit pick, are the 30-40 mile changes that can happen as a result from things like diabatic heating.latent heat release..all of which will have an effect on downstream ridging. But I think we are converging on a general solution.give or take 30-50 miles. In the big scheme of things, I fully agree that they do have a generally good handle on this setup now. Unfortunately the big city lies along the northern edge, so those tiny differences will make huge differences in the final solution given the mild positive feedback here. I personally do believe convective processes and latent processes along the front are the key player here in terms of this GFS solution (also the ECMWF). I am not saying I buy any solution verbatim, but that is likely why you are seeing vastly different solution from the amped NAM to the flatter globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Much easier to see here. 12Z GFS --> 12 NAM --> 06Z GFS all verifying at 09Z SUnday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 12z GGEM at 60 has 1000 L just east of HSE (00z MON). 10mm line runs right through DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah no argument here, Baro. The convection will do some weird things to the model solutions and if you are on the edge..you probably will care what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 12z GGEM at 60 has 1000 L just east of HSE (00z MON). 10mm line runs right through DCA 72 adds a lil more... prob 2mm... so 12z GGEM prob gives DCA 0.4-0.5 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think that's way north for the GGEM from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 72 adds a lil more... prob 2mm... so 12z GGEM prob gives DCA 0.4-0.5 QPF Has come a good bit north from last night yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think that's way north for the GGEM from last night. it is and I don't know oif it was mentioned earlier cause I've actually been working, but RGEM looked to put us in line with a similar solution, though I admit to extrapolating which is a no-no in this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Split the difference of all the different QPFs and DC gets maybe 0.3-0.4 snow and it's still far and away the best event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Split the difference of all the different QPFs and DC gets maybe 0.3-0.4 snow and it's still far and away the best event of the year. If the QPF is in the .3 range, that strikes me as a low snow total unless it's a lot of mixing or insanely low ratios. Otherwise a lot angst over something that's not much more than an extra heavy dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 it is and I don't know oif it was mentioned earlier cause I've actually been working, but RGEM looked to put us in line with a similar solution, though I admit to extrapolating which is a no-no in this event RGEM looked a bit better than the GGEM, but less than the NAM IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I made a separate thread for the Division 1 models you're a trip here are the top 15 analogs avg snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS is a little concerning after last nights Euro run. At least temps are not going to be an issue for us on the northern boundary. Its gonna snow but how much is still unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im not sure if someone mentioned it but this was the top analog storm for last night's 0z gfs. Thanks, I had not heard that. If the models were to follow that pattern, we could expect to see the models tank on us this evening and rebound tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks, I had not heard that. If the models were to follow that pattern, we could expect to see the models tank on us this evening and rebound tomorrow Remember though, that the analog is not saying what the models will predict in a specific order - it's just saying the pattern is similar. That doesn't mean model forecasts on certain runs will follow that pattern from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm glad the GGEM is back north this run. It was bugging the heck out of me that a typically amped up model was so surpressed. Shouldn't be a surprise that the GFS is a touch sparcer/south with the precip as it usually follows the Euro's lead within the next run or two. 500MB vort interaction still looks screwy this morning.. and still plenty of time for things to work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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