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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


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:lol:

Can you tell us more about this "weenie banding signal?"

I just like the 700mb look. It has a nice warm front look to it..probably strong frontogenesis from 850-700mb or so. Basically a strong thermal gradient and probably a good frontal slope where air can rise rather quickly. It looks good for a 4-6 hr band of heavier snows for that area. Probably into BWI and DE too. But it's the NAM and despite it being 48-54 hrs out, I don't have high confidence in the model depictions on where this occurs, since 50 miles will mean everything.

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This one is such a difficult forecast up this way. I hate being on the edge!

I think we've all been here probably too many times. I strongly believe heavier precip will fall on the nrn edge than what any of the models are showing. It's going to be a tight gradient. That is fairly certain. I can already see the nowcasting "look at the band setting up to the n&w." We've been here so many times and I don't think this will be any different.

I think dca will prob end up with lower totals than whatever the nam shows tomorrow and I think the northern fringe will end up with higher totals. We'll see but man, right now it's very hard not to seriously invest some confidence on a decent event in the metros.

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It's fine, I personally wouldn't guarantee a shift north based on the 12z NAM, but the underlying reasons as to why it could happen are there. I'd wait to see what the rest of the guidance does.

Im not saying a trend solely via the nam, because the northern stream is trending faster in a season with a fast flow. In addition, the trough looks to tilt a bit earlier with confluence moving out quicker on the past few runs.

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Who cares?...it's the NAM.....until the Euro shows a legit storm, there is no storm...just pretty models runs from an inferior model

heh, do you really feel this way? lol

There's alot of confidence in play here. All of the guidance shows a similar 850 track. That hasn't wobbled nearly as much as the nrn extent of the precip shield. I'm going to take some time later and compare every single 850 track over the last 2 runs with every model in figure out the spread but it really isn't that big. I'm pretty sure of that. The fine details are being worked out now and I really feel like i'm on the right side of the luckometer this time around.

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heh, do you really feel this way? lol

There's alot of confidence in play here. All of the guidance shows a similar 850 track. That hasn't wobbled nearly as much as the nrn extent of the precip shield. I'm going to take some time later and compare every single 850 track over the last 2 runs with every model in figure out the spread but it really isn't that big. I'm pretty sure of that. The fine details are being worked out now and I really feel like i'm on the right side of the luckometer this time around.

I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic

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I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic

All models show these features, but yeah..I'm with you on wanting to see the GFS and Euro climb aboard for the DC area.

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I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic

It isn't a guarantee to predict any type of trends yet with the synoptic setup since the overall solution will be highly dependent upon convective development and propagation which is always an uncertainty regarding positive tilt waves with elongated warm fronts such as this. NAM initiates convection early with early DMC never organizing into an MCS with activity quickly becoming elevated above the low level warm front ...low level transport vectors remain poleward oriented. ECMWF does the opposite. No solution is off the table yet in those terms.

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I do believe we will see a jog north...hopefully today, if not then tomorrow....But I don't care what the NAM says...It's fun to look and salivate at....nothing more.....Until the euro is on board, I am a skeptic

I'm cautiously optimistic. I just compared 850 with the 6z & 12z nam and 0z & 6z gfs. The low is basically in the exact same spot right over Hatteras. The differences in placement are so small that you can't really ever call it differences. The track from there has some slight variations but not much.

I only have crappy euro access so I can compare that. Can you compare 850 placement as it goes offshore for me?

This is why I'm so confident. We only battling confluence here. The storm is basically locked in. The models are basically yelling SNOW at me. How much is being worked out but I would have to think a 3-5" event is at least 60% probable at this point.

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I'm cautiously optimistic. I just compared 850 with the 6z & 12z nam and 0z & 6z gfs. The low is basically in the exact same spot right over Hatteras. The differences in placement are so small that you can't really ever call it differences. The track from there has some slight variations but not much.

I only have crappy euro access so I can compare that. Can you compare 850 placement as it goes offshore for me?

This is why I'm so confident. We only battling confluence here. The storm is basically locked in. The models are basically yelling SNOW at me. How much is being worked out but I would have to think a 3-5" event is at least 60% probable at this point.

There is free ECMWF at wunderground.com/wundermap in 3 hourly increments to hour 180.

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I'm wondering why LWX and Wakefield are being so conservative in their forecasts? A good example here is CHO, which all models show as a 4+ inch hit (most show 8+). Any thoughts on the extremely conservative text forecasts? My apologies if this is in the wrong thread.

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I think the most surprising thing to me is the the improvement in the bl. A couple days ago I was rooting to stay just fringed enough to maximize snow potential on the nrn edge because rain was clearly on the table. You and ji both rooted for a wrapped up wet event and take chances with the precip. Now everything is pointing to all snow. THAT is something I don't think any of us were expecting and happens very rarely with a very marginal airmass going in. It's pretty much anti-climo.

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I'm wondering why LWX and Wakefield are being so conservative in their forecasts? A good example here is CHO, which all models show as a 4+ inch hit (most show 8+). Any thoughts on the extremely conservative text forecasts? My apologies if this is in the wrong thread.

Forecasts seem pretty balanced to me at this time. At lease those from NWS. I don't think NWS generally puts accumulation forecasts up (I don't see any for LWX right now). My forecast near DC shows chance for rain and snow.

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Just remember one thing...whether you are in DC or VA..etc. Just because the precip contours are stratiform and drop off as you move north, the potential snowfall contours will not be. They'll be a second max probably near that nrn edge. I'm just throwing it out there for those who are watching how much QPF models drop for their backyard.

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There is free ECMWF at wunderground.com/wundermap in 3 hourly increments to hour 180.

lol- the embarassing part of this is that I actually had it in my faves but totally forgot about 3hr increments. I've been sticking with raleighs site for too long.

850 on last nights euro takes pretty much the same track as all other guidance. That part of this storm is locked in. We just need the ns to be friendly and my gut is telling me not to worry too much right now.

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Forecasts seem pretty balanced to me at this time. At lease those from NWS. I don't think NWS generally puts accumulation forecasts up (I don't see any for LWX right now). My forecast near DC shows chance for rain and snow.

I think the NWS is right on for now. If the other 12z runs are similarly cold as the NAM, they might switch that "rain or snow" to just "snow", but they don't need to be putting amounts out yet. This is still 48hrs+ away. Accumulation totals would probably be added in tomorrow's afternoon update. Perhaps they put out a HWO or something like that this afternoon if the Euro and GFS also show potential warning-level snows.

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I think the NWS is right on for now. If the other 12z runs are similarly cold as the NAM, they might switch that "rain or snow" to just "snow", but they don't need to be putting amounts out yet. This is still 48hrs+ away. Accumulation totals would probably be added in tomorrow's afternoon update. Perhaps they put out a HWO or something like that this afternoon if the Euro and GFS also show potential warning-level snows.

Fair point. I suppose they wanted to wait more than one model cycle to see if the sfc temps continue to trend cooler on all the globals. Hopefully we see a holistic update this afternoon.

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I think the NWS is right on for now. If the other 12z runs are similarly cold as the NAM, they might switch that "rain or snow" to just "snow", but they don't need to be putting amounts out yet. This is still 48hrs+ away. Accumulation totals would probably be added in tomorrow's afternoon update. Perhaps they put out a HWO or something like that this afternoon if the Euro and GFS also show potential warning-level snows.

Agree fully. Yeah, I never remember NWS putting amounts out this far ahead. Maybe a mention in the AFD but that's different than the public forecast.

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Fair point. I suppose they wanted to wait more than one model cycle to see if the sfc temps continue to trend cooler on all the globals. Hopefully we see a holistic update this afternoon.

You may want to take a look at their area forecast discussion product, it has a lot of information that the general forecast does not (like thoughts and analysis). I wouldn't call them conservative just because they have not put amounts in the forecast yet. :)

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

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